Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[OHweather]

The first of what may be a few opportunities for snow over the next week is Thursday night through Friday night...

My early take is that it's an OK set-up (especially for NW PA and SW NY), but far from great. I could see how enough things come together to allow for 24 hour totals over 6" in the higher terrain of NW PA, which would warrant an advisory, but I think in NE Ohio amounts are generally a few inches or less, which is marginal for or even sub-advisory criteria...but would be enough to get everyone back into a wintry mood. 

Lake effect will get going overnight Thursday night as an upper trough moves over the lake and 850mb temps fall to around -10C by sunrise Friday...and dip a bit more during the day Friday. There will be a few periods where the trough or little shortwaves will add a little bit of synoptic lift...one will be for a few hours after midnight Thursday night as the upper trough initially moves in. Another will be later Friday morning or around midday as a pretty potent vort moves through on the backside of the upper trough, and this will probably coincide with the greatest lake-induced instability and highest inversion levels. Then Friday night into early Saturday, a flat little wave will bring some mid-level WAA and moisture, with 850mb temperatures hanging on around -10C over the lake and low-level convergence persisting over the Snowbelt, especially east of Cleveland. 

My guess is that there are off and on lake effect snow showers for much of the period from overnight Thursday night through Friday night / possibly early Saturday. I think activity peaks Friday morning - midday, but the set-up Friday night may allow for a modest band of lake enhanced snow to continue from eastern Cuyahoga County into the primary Snowbelt that can drop some continued (but mainly light) accumulations. With 850mb temperatures of near or below -10C for much of the event it can snow and stick down to the lakeshore, but lower ratios and lack of terrain will inevitably result in a fair bit less near the lake than inland in the hills. 

The fetch will be near 300 degrees for much of the day Friday (will start around 280 Thursday night but go to around 300 by Friday morning), and then gradually back more westerly Friday night into early Saturday. So, for the peak of the event it will not be a full-fetch, and there will probably be more of a multi-banded structure than a single / dominant band. The flow is 20-30 knots and shear isn't too bad, which will help a bit given the shorter fetch. Upstream connections will also be key...given the wind direction and NAM 925mb and 850mb RH and streamline plots, a Lake Huron fetch will go into SW NY and may get into PA at times, but will probably stay east of I-79. There are also hints at a broad connection to northern Lake Michigan (near Traverse City), which occasionally happens and causes some enhancement in and around the Cleveland metro. So, there may be one or two somewhat better bands on either side of Cleveland for a time if this connection sets up. Thermodynamics are not stellar...lake to 850mb differentials will be near or just over 20C at times which is strong, but 700mb temps aren't that cold so inversion heights will range from 5-7k feet in Cleveland to 7-9k feet in Erie at the peak of the event. While not necessarily prohibitive, it is marginal. If it were colder we'd be able to get away with it more, but the bulk of the moisture, instability, and lift are mainly below the DGZ, so ratios will probably be lower than the usual LES fluff we get when it's colder. 

Given the marginal thermodynamics, ratios, and shorter fetch, but decent low-level instability, a fairly well-aligned flow, and some modest synoptic help and a few upstream connections, here are my early thoughts. I think most of the Snowbelt gets a couple to few inches, with several inches for interior NW PA. But, it's over a span of about 24 hours, with the activity probably peaking Friday morning. I think the Cleveland area can get an inch or two away from the immediate lakeshore, but it again will be over a decent chunk of time. 

[NEOH]

12 hours ago, OHweather said:

The first of what may be a few opportunities for snow over the next week is Thursday night through Friday night...

My early take is that it's an OK set-up (especially for NW PA and SW NY), but far from great. I could see how enough things come together to allow for 24 hour totals over 6" in the higher terrain of NW PA, which would warrant an advisory, but I think in NE Ohio amounts are generally a few inches or less, which is marginal for or even sub-advisory criteria...but would be enough to get everyone back into a wintry mood. 

Lake effect will get going overnight Thursday night as an upper trough moves over the lake and 850mb temps fall to around -10C by sunrise Friday...and dip a bit more during the day Friday. There will be a few periods where the trough or little shortwaves will add a little bit of synoptic lift...one will be for a few hours after midnight Thursday night as the upper trough initially moves in. Another will be later Friday morning or around midday as a pretty potent vort moves through on the backside of the upper trough, and this will probably coincide with the greatest lake-induced instability and highest inversion levels. Then Friday night into early Saturday, a flat little wave will bring some mid-level WAA and moisture, with 850mb temperatures hanging on around -10C over the lake and low-level convergence persisting over the Snowbelt, especially east of Cleveland. 

My guess is that there are off and on lake effect snow showers for much of the period from overnight Thursday night through Friday night / possibly early Saturday. I think activity peaks Friday morning - midday, but the set-up Friday night may allow for a modest band of lake enhanced snow to continue from eastern Cuyahoga County into the primary Snowbelt that can drop some continued (but mainly light) accumulations. With 850mb temperatures of near or below -10C for much of the event it can snow and stick down to the lakeshore, but lower ratios and lack of terrain will inevitably result in a fair bit less near the lake than inland in the hills. 

The fetch will be near 300 degrees for much of the day Friday (will start around 280 Thursday night but go to around 300 by Friday morning), and then gradually back more westerly Friday night into early Saturday. So, for the peak of the event it will not be a full-fetch, and there will probably be more of a multi-banded structure than a single / dominant band. The flow is 20-30 knots and shear isn't too bad, which will help a bit given the shorter fetch. Upstream connections will also be key...given the wind direction and NAM 925mb and 850mb RH and streamline plots, a Lake Huron fetch will go into SW NY and may get into PA at times, but will probably stay east of I-79. There are also hints at a broad connection to northern Lake Michigan (near Traverse City), which occasionally happens and causes some enhancement in and around the Cleveland metro. So, there may be one or two somewhat better bands on either side of Cleveland for a time if this connection sets up. Thermodynamics are not stellar...lake to 850mb differentials will be near or just over 20C at times which is strong, but 700mb temps aren't that cold so inversion heights will range from 5-7k feet in Cleveland to 7-9k feet in Erie at the peak of the event. While not necessarily prohibitive, it is marginal. If it were colder we'd be able to get away with it more, but the bulk of the moisture, instability, and lift are mainly below the DGZ, so ratios will probably be lower than the usual LES fluff we get when it's colder. 

Given the marginal thermodynamics, ratios, and shorter fetch, but decent low-level instability, a fairly well-aligned flow, and some modest synoptic help and a few upstream connections, here are my early thoughts. I think most of the Snowbelt gets a couple to few inches, with several inches for interior NW PA. But, it's over a span of about 24 hours, with the activity probably peaking Friday morning. I think the Cleveland area can get an inch or two away from the immediate lakeshore, but it again will be over a decent chunk of time. 

 

Thanks for the forecast. Will be nice to see the snow flying again. It has bee cold the past few days so lake temps are dropping quickly in the western basin. 

 

[OHweather]

Yeah, we'll see some more 30s sneaking into the western basin after another cold few days coming up. Hopefully the lake isn't frozen by the time I move back in a couple of weeks! Probably not, but the cooling happens quick the first few cold shots each fall. 

Just thumbing through some models and soundings...my overall impression is that this remains a set-up that supports mainly light accumulations in NE Ohio and a bit more in NW PA and SW NY. My thoughts in NE Ohio are that the "low ends" are generally more likely than the "high ends" on my map, but that the higher-end amounts are locally attainable wherever the one or two more organized bands set-up late Thursday night into Friday morning. NW PA likely will do better overall due to more fetch, more lake warmth, somewhat higher inversions and deeper moisture, and perhaps being close to a Lake Huron connection...though in NW PA the higher amounts will still be quite tied to the hillier terrain. 

Yesterday, the NAM and GFS were both more progressive with the trough and had lower inversions and moisture...especially the NAM...which would have made it hard to get more than a localized inch or two in Ohio. The Canadian guidance (both the global model and the RGEM) were slower and a bit deeper with the trough and had more synoptic moisture and higher inversions, and would have supported locally more amounts even in NE OH. The Euro was somewhat in between. It seems the Euro solution will roughly come to fruition, as the NAM soundings have improved a bit since yesterday but the Canadian guidance now keeps the deeper synoptic moisture more confined to NW PA...but still supports some accumulations in NE Ohio. 

Even with models coming to some consensus on a middle ground solution, there are still some fairly significant differences on soundings, both model to model and between Cleveland and Erie, with respect to moisture depth and inversion heights, which may make a big difference in snow quality and rates. 

The NAM (both the 12km and hi-res) still has lower inversion heights and moisture depth than other models. It also has a bit more shear (especially on the hi-res). Here is the hi-res NAM for Cleveland, valid early Friday around event peak and in the afternoon:

This sounding, even around the peak of the event, is not great. The boundary layer is only 4-5k feet deep on the model, which doesn't really get into the DGZ. There's some moisture up to 7k feet and the lake-induced convective equilibrium level is about 8k feet, which is into the DGZ, so it'd still snow with this sounding, but it'd be hard to get heavy snow or good ratios. Also note the white line, which is modeled upward motion, is mainly confined to the lower levels and beneath the DGZ. There's also some shear around 5k feet. 

Through Friday afternoon the NAM quickly strips away moisture and the inversion height gradually falls. The flow slackens a bit below 5k feet, but there's still shear above it. This sounding, with a fairly short fetch and lack of synoptic lift at this time, would probably shut down any accumulations in NE Ohio Friday afternoon outside of any upstream connections, where localized light accumulations could continue with instability and moisture barely getting into the DGZ. 

Some other models, such as the HRRR and the RAP (HRRR shown), have deeper mixing over the lake and a bit more moisture. There's also less shear. These soundings would overall be more supportive for NE Ohio accumulations. Valid at similar times as the NAM soundings:

This sounding has a much deeper boundary layer, to around 8k feet, with lake induced EL's of 9-10k feet. There's also moisture to around 8k feet and a deeper layer of lift on the model. This would allow lake effect to be deeper, perhaps a bit more organized with less shear, and also allow for better ratios due to much better moisture, instability and lift in the DGZ. While soundings on the HRRR at CLE gradually begin to turn less favorable through Friday, even into the afternoon there's still a fair amount of moisture, instability and lift into the DGZ, which would support accumulations under any bands:

We'll see which soundings end up closer to reality. My gut feeling, with a 500mb map that looks like this Friday morning, is that the HRRR soundings are more correct with deeper moisture, instability and lift. This is a 500mb map that is favorable for LES off of Lake Erie:

The rub is how progressive the trough is, with ridging quickly building in aloft Friday afternoon (especially in OH). But it's briefly quite a favorable synoptic pattern for lake effect late Thursday night into Friday morning. Soundings in Erie are better across the board due to being closer to the heart of the upper trough, a longer fetch, and perhaps some Lake Huron moisture nearby...though the NAM is still relatively less favorable...

This is better than the CLE NAM soundings...there's a bit of shear, but there's synoptic moisture to nearly 15k feet, and the instability and modeled lift get into more of the DGZ. While conditions turn less favorable Friday afternoon, they suffice for at least some accumulation potential under any bands through the day and into Friday night in NW PA:

Peak HRRR soundings in Erie Friday morning would support heavy and efficient snowfall:

Not only is there synoptic moisture to nearly 15k feet, but the boundary layer extends through the entire DGZ which would allow for higher ratios. There would likely be decent upslope enhancement too with that much low-level moisture and instability. Popping "extreme" instability on BUFKIT with that much synoptic moisture would probably result in a period of snow rates greater than 1" per hour in the higher terrain of NW PA and SW NY late Thursday night and Friday morning. 

Overall, no big changes to my thoughts. I may re-draw my map a bit but want to see some of the 0z hi-res stuff first. My thoughts on changes would be to perhaps expand the 1-2" farther into Medina and Summit Counties...hi-res models are trying to key on a band in that area, and it's not uncommon to get a band from somewhere in Lorain and Medina Counties towards Akron with a 300-310 degree flow. But, does ridging build too quickly down there for good accums? The other thought is potentially removing the 2-4" from eastern Cuyahoga County. Oftentimes with this kind of flow, especially if moisture is an issue, there's a relative gap between a band into the secondary Snowbelt (parts of Lorain / Medina / Summit) and another band into the northern primary Snowbelt (northern Geauga into Ashtabula). If moisture remains more questionable in Cleveland I could see how much of Cuyahoga doesn't get a ton. While not on my map, I feel good for several inches east of I-79 in southern Erie and Crawford PA into Chautauqua County NY in the higher terrain. If there's a Huron connected band on Friday when conditions peak, someone could see warning criteria snow there. I could see an argument for 6-10" of snow from the eastern third of Erie County into Chautauqua County, especially with some light accums probably continuing through Friday night there. 

And in other news, models have trended more amped with Sunday's clipper. The potential exists for accumulation with the clipper Saturday night into Sunday followed by lake effect Sunday night through at least Monday. Instability appears more conditional to moderate right now, but if the models are right and the system blows up near New England, we may have more synoptic moisture hanging back farther west. Winds will go NW to NNW behind it which could bring a Huron connection into far NE Ohio. Overall my thoughts are a few inches is decently likely in the higher terrain of the Snowbelt in NE Ohio and NW PA from that system, but if it continues to trend slower and Lake Huron is involved it could be significant somewhere. With 850mb temps of -8 to -10C behind the clipper it would be a somewhat lower-ratio lake effect snow, and the lakeshore would see much less. 

 

Edit to add:

[NEOH]

Just a coating out there this morning. The wind is really strong so i wonder if that will cut back totals a bit as residence time will be reduced, and not allow for better band organization. 

[OHweather]

The lake response into NE Ohio has been unimpressive so far...cloud tops have cooled a bit over the last couple of hours and radar returns have upticked a bit. There's currently a bit of synoptic lift from a vort on the backside of the upper trough, and there's another band of weak lift evident on satellite spreading across northern IN and MI ahead of another little vort that will spread across Lake Erie this afternoon and early evening before moving east. You can tell that the strong winds NEOH mentioned are having some effect, as the Pittsburgh radar shows more organized bands well inland. 

There are a couple of modest upstream lake connections into NE Ohio...one into Lorain, Medina, SW Summit and Stark and another into parts of Lake, Geauga, Trumbull and Mahoning. With some modest synoptic lift at times through this afternoon and winds gradually slackening, we'll see if one of these can develop into a more organized band and drop some accumulations. I suspect accumulations will be an inch or less outside of any upstream lake connections today due to the short fetch, marginal moisture, somewhat strong winds and overall borderline set-up. The hi-res models are trying to latch onto those upstream connections persisting even into the Cleveland area well into tonight...soundings don't support heavy snow, but perhaps that tacks on another local inch tonight. Overall the forecast wasn't very exciting for NE Ohio and so far there aren't signs of any big surprises going the other way. There is a strong band off of Lake Huron curling towards NW PA so I suspect they'll do fine there in the higher terrain. 

[OHweather]

Looks like only a couple of spots in Geauga and Ashtaubla managed an inch in NE Ohio out of the LES...the clipper this evening seems like a safe bet to drop a quick 1-3" on NE Ohio. There's briefly good snow growth so it'll probably accumulate pretty quickly for a couple of hours this evening. The lake effect later Sunday into Sunday night looks interesting, with inversion heights and moisture depth to over 10,000 feet and synoptic support. There is a bit of shear. A Lake Huron fetch may get to at least Lake and Geauga later Sunday night too. If there was less shear this would be a candidate to overperform...even as it is a fairly widespread plowable snow is probably likely with WNW winds going NW and eventually NNW through the event. 

[NEOH]

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

Looks like only a couple of spots in Geauga and Ashtaubla managed an inch in NE Ohio out of the LES...the clipper this evening seems like a safe bet to drop a quick 1-3" on NE Ohio. There's briefly good snow growth so it'll probably accumulate pretty quickly for a couple of hours this evening. The lake effect later Sunday into Sunday night looks interesting, with inversion heights and moisture depth to over 10,000 feet and synoptic support. There is a bit of shear. A Lake Huron fetch may get to at least Lake and Geauga later Sunday night too. If there was less shear this would be a candidate to overperform...even as it is a fairly widespread plowable snow is probably likely with WNW winds going NW and eventually NNW through the event. 

Under an inch here. Tonight and tomorrow do look good. The models may be overdone but they are all showing 4-6”+ across Geauga county.

[OHweather]

RGEM run is pretty good for the Chagrin area with the LES

[NEOH]

3” total from last night. We’ll see what today/tonight brings. The snow is very wet as the temp jumped up to 33.

[OHweather]

Barely got to drawing this before snow starts accumulating...

Lot of mixed signals on this one. There will be an uptick the next several hours as a surface trough pushes inland. Thermodynamics support very squally precip with this trough, with instability and moisture to over 10,000 feet and through the DGZ. There's also very strong synoptic support. However, 850mb temps are -7 to -8C with above-freezing surface temperatures. If there's any sort of organized banding snow could quickly add up in this window, but the trough pushes inland fairly quickly so I'm not sure. Best shot is probably into NW PA, though maybe there's some transient organization east of Cleveland too that can lead to some accumulations. Outside of any organized bands with this first push, amounts will be an inch or less from quick squalls. Probably little near the lakeshore as it may mix with rain or just fall as graupel that doesn't add up quickly.

Disorganized lake effect snow showers should continue behind this initial push, but there's a period of synoptic sinking motion behind the initial trough and there's some shear, so accumulations for the early-mid evening hours probably won't be anything notable. There's another subtle vort and wind shift around midnight. With a WNW flow ahead of it, convergence may increase enough from Lorain, Cuyahoga, and northern Medina east into the interior Snowbelt of NE Ohio and NW PA for a brief but decent uptick in snow organization and intensity ahead of this next wind shift. Thermodynamics aren't quite as favorable for intense precip as later this afternoon but are still sufficient with inversion heights near 10k feet and moderate instability with respect to the lake. What may allow for heavy rates in this window is a Lake Huron connection, that initially will be going into NW PA but should swing into at least Lake / Geauga but perhaps even eastern Cuyahoga County as the winds go NNW behind that trough. That connection may linger overnight and allow for a band to persist into early Monday. Otherwise, ridging builds in quickly late tonight into early Monday and gradually shuts things down. 

Tricky to figure accums with somewhat marginal temperatures during the day today (and even tonight it will be iffy close to the lake), shifting winds, some shear for most of the event, brief duration and only quick hits of synoptic support...but, the thermodynamics are a good bit more favorable than the last event. NW PA, despite underperforming some with the last event, probably has the best shot both this afternoon (longer fetch and more terrain may help accumulate with the marginal temperatures) and later this evening (they get the Huron connection first), so someone there may verify the LES warning and get over 6". In NE Ohio I kept most areas to 1-3", with less near the lake. Parts of Medina may do OK with the uptick late this evening into the overnight so did paint in 1-3" for much of the county. Otherwise, went 3-6" for much of Geauga figuring you may get some accumulation this afternoon, plus the Huron connection tonight, along with enough terrain to help accumulate despite the somewhat marginal temperatures. Kept the highest amounts a bit east of most hi-res models per typical model bias with LES placement. I did reflect the potential for this connection to extend into Portage County with southward extensions of the 1-3 and 3-6" areas. 

[dta1984]

I've got 4" that fell yesterday and today.  Currently getting light snow, small flakes. 

[dta1984]

Had thundersnow last night around 10pm with the Huron band.  The snowfall was very intense, but must not have lasted too long.  2.5" additional is what fell overnight.  

[NEOH]

35 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Had thundersnow last night around 10pm with the Huron band.  The snowfall was very intense, but must not have lasted too long.  2.5" additional is what fell overnight.  

Same total IMBY. Right around 6" over the weekend. Some of those bursts were intense yesterday. Didn't last long with the shifting winds though.

[NEOH]

I'd say this is a suspicious snow report from South Russell . I live in the far east end of South Russell, and my office is in the far west end of South Russell (which is about 5 miles), and I can say this report is completely false. 

..Geauga County...
  South Russell          11.0   645 AM 11/29  Trained Spotter
  2 W Burton              8.0   715 AM 11/29  Trained Spotter
  3 WSW Auburn Corners    6.3   730 AM 11/29  Trained Spotter
  2 ESE South Thompson    5.3   610 AM 11/29  Trained Spotter
  1 S Montville           5.0   700 AM 11/29  Trained Spotter

[NEOH]

Wouldn't be surprised to see a few inches tonight along the 322/Rt.6 corridor. Looks like winds may stay too westerly to push the snow this far south. 

[dta1984]

22 hours ago, NEOH said:

Wouldn't be surprised to see a few inches tonight along the 322/Rt.6 corridor. Looks like winds may stay too westerly to push the snow this far south. 

The majority of accumulating snow ended up E of Painesville and into Ashtabula county last night.  

Looks like a boring stretch.  I'm glad we at least are at 12" from Nov.   Could be worse..  Bummer the lake is cooling off though. 

 

[NEOH]

42 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

The majority of accumulating snow ended up E of Painesville and into Ashtabula county last night.  

Looks like a boring stretch.  I'm glad we at least are at 12" from Nov.   Could be worse..  Bummer the lake is cooling off though. 

 

It was definitely good to have a few smaller events in November. We did lose a lot of lake warmth with the cold temps... hard to believe temps are already in the upper 30's in the western basin. With the upcoming warmth the lake temps should hold fairly steady. 

[NEOH]

Snowing pretty nicely out there this morning. Enjoy it while it lasts... looks like a 10-14 day break incoming. 

[Speedskater]

On Saturday at 12:40 PM, the Lorain Harbor, OH weather station (Station LORO1)  measured a gust of 66 knots.

That's 76MPH. At 12:30 PM Cleveland shoreline had a temperature of 63°F and at 4PM it's about 40°F.

[NEOH]

On 12/11/2021 at 3:54 PM, Speedskater said:

On Saturday at 12:40 PM, the Lorain Harbor, OH weather station (Station LORO1)  measured a gust of 66 knots.

That's 76MPH. At 12:30 PM Cleveland shoreline had a temperature of 63°F and at 4PM it's about 40°F.

The winds were pretty wild on Saturday. Nothing like the lakeshore out here... but good enough to drop quite a few dead ash trees. 

[IWXwx]

In BuffaloWeather's hood on Saturday, looks like fun.

 

[NEOH]

Nice to see some snow falling this morning for a change. Who would have thought that November would have been snowier than December. What an awful month this has been. Hopefully we will find ourselves on the right side of the gradient moving forward. 

[OHweather]

CLE is currently sitting in a tie for least snowiest December on record (T)...may be a little mix late Sunday night or early Monday in NE OH and NW PA but I don't think CLE has a shot at measurable snow from it...next wave of precip arrives early Tuesday and may briefly mix on the very front end but again, looks unlikely to be measurable for CLE. It gets trickier Thursday and Friday as it starts getting chillier, but Thursday a wave of low pressure looks to develop well to our SE and the next wave probably doesn't bring any precip chances until Saturday. So, this may go down as tie for least snowy December on record (a record that hasn't occurred anytime recently). It will get colder and snowier the first half of January (kind of hard not to) but at this point we're in a big hole to start winter...feel like that's been the case more often than not recently. 

[NEOH]

8 hours ago, OHweather said:

CLE is currently sitting in a tie for least snowiest December on record (T)...may be a little mix late Sunday night or early Monday in NE OH and NW PA but I don't think CLE has a shot at measurable snow from it...next wave of precip arrives early Tuesday and may briefly mix on the very front end but again, looks unlikely to be measurable for CLE. It gets trickier Thursday and Friday as it starts getting chillier, but Thursday a wave of low pressure looks to develop well to our SE and the next wave probably doesn't bring any precip chances until Saturday. So, this may go down as tie for least snowy December on record (a record that hasn't occurred anytime recently). It will get colder and snowier the first half of January (kind of hard not to) but at this point we're in a big hole to start winter...feel like that's been the case more often than not recently. 

Merry Christmas Jim. This has been one the worst December’s I can recall. 50’s and rain Christmas morning to top it off. Last December was quite good around here…but we do seem to be playing catch up most years.

[OHweather]

6 hours ago, NEOH said:

Merry Christmas Jim. This has been one the worst December’s I can recall. 50’s and rain Christmas morning to top it off. Last December was quite good around here…but we do seem to be playing catch up most years.

Merry Christmas to you as well! Last December was definitely a very good month with two major storms and a few smaller ones. Either way, January should be better than this month (and models seem on track to start bringing in colder air just after the New Year), so we'll see what that can bring to our area. 

[dta1984]

Merry Christmas all!   What a dud of a December.  Hoping for some measurable snow next week to avoid a shutout at least.  

[OHweather]

Got the lightest of slushy coatings this morning before changing to rain...maybe was briefly 0.1" but I didn't see it I'll go with a T here. We've gotten about 0.3" of snow at my house in Reminderville since I moved back on December 4th, which is hilariously pitiful. We'll start getting more snow soon, the torch is almost over. We'll see if it's a "good pattern" or just "snowier than it's been"). 

Looks like extreme NE OH into PA got a nice slushy thump into the AM commute this morning, not that it does much to dent their seasonal departures there but more than nothing. 

Tuesday PM is close to trying to thump briefly again before changing to rain...I'm thinking extreme NE OH and NW PA can, we'll see about the CLE area. If surface temps aren't too warm a thump of wet snow could be measurable at the airport. I'm not sold on the airport getting measurable but it's within the realm at least. 

[NEOH]

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

Got the lightest of slushy coatings this morning before changing to rain...maybe was briefly 0.1" but I didn't see it I'll go with a T here. We've gotten about 0.3" of snow at my house in Reminderville since I moved back on December 4th, which is hilariously pitiful. We'll start getting more snow soon, the torch is almost over. We'll see if it's a "good pattern" or just "snowier than it's been"). 

Looks like extreme NE OH into PA got a nice slushy thump into the AM commute this morning, not that it does much to dent their seasonal departures there but more than nothing. 

Tuesday PM is close to trying to thump briefly again before changing to rain...I'm thinking extreme NE OH and NW PA can, we'll see about the CLE area. If surface temps aren't too warm a thump of wet snow could be measurable at the airport. I'm not sold on the airport getting measurable but it's within the realm at least. 

There was enough slush this morning that they plowed and salted the roads. Tuesday night is looking more interesting. Temps are very marginal but could be a nice thump. 

[OHweather]

Yeah I like the trends on the 12z models for late Tuesday...it will be above freezing when it comes in, but models are showing good lift in the DGZ and plenty of low-level dry air...it will take a bit to saturate, but that process will cool the low-levels enough to allow precip to start as snow. I think CLE has a decent shot to get "on the board" for this month and it could end up being a quick 1-3" in the hills. It's a fickle set-up so let's see if the 0z models hold with it, but as it's shown I think there's enough lift and wet-bulb cooling potential to get accumulating snow. 

[NEOH]

22 hours ago, OHweather said:

Yeah I like the trends on the 12z models for late Tuesday...it will be above freezing when it comes in, but models are showing good lift in the DGZ and plenty of low-level dry air...it will take a bit to saturate, but that process will cool the low-levels enough to allow precip to start as snow. I think CLE has a decent shot to get "on the board" for this month and it could end up being a quick 1-3" in the hills. It's a fickle set-up so let's see if the 0z models hold with it, but as it's shown I think there's enough lift and wet-bulb cooling potential to get accumulating snow. 

Tough forecast today. Pretty big differences among the various models. Warm air usually wins out around here. 1-3" seems reasonable although the immediate lakeshore/lower elevations may struggle.