Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[NEOH]

16 hours ago, OHweather said:

Interesting little lake effect set-up tonight - Tuesday night for parts of NE OH / NW PA. As dta said, decent shot at flakes at the least. 

Beyond some graupel in heavier showers, it should be mainly rain through tonight with a W to WSW wind keeping activity confined to extreme NE OH into PA / SW NY. It becomes colder aloft on Tuesday with a W flow persisting, with a shortwave moving through late morning / afternoon from west to east, which may focus a couple of decent W-E oriented bands for a few hours and probably causes a few diurnal (non lake effect) showers to pop inland, which could fall as some sort of mixed precip. It should be too warm during the day for more than a slushy coating of snow or graupel in parts of NE OH / NW PA into SW NY, though will likely be cold enough for a decent amount of mixing in any heavier squalls or bands. 

Tuesday night is a little more interesting, with another shortwave moving through late-evening into the overnight from west to east across the lake. One or two more intense W-E oriented bands (along with orographic enhanced showers) should flare-up in the evening, and then at some point overnight shift inland and break up as the shortwave goes by and shifts the flow more NW'rly, and as drier air starts working in later in the night. With 850mb temperatures of -5 to -7C and 925mb temperatures of 0 to -2C through the night, it's close to cold enough to consider decent accumulations in the higher terrain where banding occurs. It's marginal overall, 1-2C warmer aloft than the October of 2013 event that dropped up to 8" in the eastern suburbs, but where banding and terrain combine to maximize potential there could be some localized accumulations of 1-3" in parts of NE OH / NW PA, along with the higher terrain of SW NY Tuesday night. With a well-aligned westerly or WNW flow Tuesday evening, lift from the shortwave, upstream moisture from Lake Michigan and extreme lake-induced instability, there could temporarily be the organization and intensity needed to drop some actual accumulations, especially in the higher terrain. 

We'll see what happens...flakes are a good bet, but there could be some localized but quick accumulations under any banding Tuesday evening into the night...particularly in the higher terrain from extreme eastern Cuyahoga into northern Geauga, inland Erie County PA and inland SW NY. 

Thanks as always for posting your thoughts. Looking good for seeing some snow tonight. No interest in an October 2013 redo -- I still have branches hanging in trees from that event. Looking at some of the pictures from 2013 the foliage is much farther along this year. 

[dta1984]

No accumulation, but there were flakes last night.  

[NEOH]

2 hours ago, dta1984 said:

No accumulation, but there were flakes last night.  

It was good to see the snow last night. Surprised there wasn't more of lake response though. Noticed a couple cars on the road covered with snow yesterday afternoon... probably from lake county as that area was under the heaviest returns. 

[OHweather]

I knew it couldn't be a good sign when I checked for the PNS and saw a damage survey from the October 21st tornado outbreak. Bands never got organized last night...kind of funny that the best accums in NE Ohio occurred during the day yesterday in Lake County when it was in the mid 40s outside of the bands...I saw a few pictures on Twitter of some light accumulations (maybe up to a few tenths) yesterday in Lake County. 

[NEOH]

Leaves are about 90% down IMBY. One large red maple continues to hold on though.

 

[nwohweather]

59 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Leaves are about 90% down IMBY. One large red maple continues to hold on though.

 

There's always that one maple that hangs on later than the others

[WHEATCENT]

seems like temps over performed today low 70s at least here along the lake

[dta1984]

32 degrees and 1.5" down.   Snowing nicely, very low ratio.   Should get some lake response tonight as well.  

[dta1984]

4" total, less in the grass, and minimal on paved surfaces.  Nice start to the season. 

[NEOH]

40 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

4" total, less in the grass, and minimal on paved surfaces.  Nice start to the season. 

Definitely a great way to start the season. It was very wet with warm surfaces and marginal temps but scenic. 

 

[OHweather]

I feel good about advisory criteria snow for parts of NE OH and NW PA Thursday night into early Friday right now. It's a briefly good lake effect set-up and with 850mb temps dipping to -8 to -10C it should pretty safely be cold enough to accumulate well away from the immediate lake (which hasn't been the case with any LES setup yet this fall...though the synoptic snow did well last weekend). Winds are mainly W for the bulk of the event but will gradually swing more WNW by early Friday before the ridging really clamps down on things, so in NE OH I think the heaviest probably falls near 322 or perhaps slightly north, but as the winds go WNW it should get into the rest of Geauga and even a decent chunk of Cuyahoga early Friday. I think it's generally a 2-5" snow inland from the lake for parts of Lake, northern Geauga, Ashtabula and Erie Co's but if the band stalls for a few hours over one spot like some models suggest there could locally be a bit more. For most of central and eastern Cuyahoga and spots like southern Geauga probably more like a 1-3" deal in the hills (and less closer to the immediate shoreline). 

[dta1984]

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

I feel good about advisory criteria snow for parts of NE OH and NW PA Thursday night into early Friday right now. It's a briefly good lake effect set-up and with 850mb temps dipping to -8 to -10C it should pretty safely be cold enough to accumulate well away from the immediate lake (which hasn't been the case with any LES setup yet this fall...though the synoptic snow did well last weekend). Winds are mainly W for the bulk of the event but will gradually swing more WNW by early Friday before the ridging really clamps down on things, so in NE OH I think the heaviest probably falls near 322 or perhaps slightly north, but as the winds go WNW it should get into the rest of Geauga and even a decent chunk of Cuyahoga early Friday. I think it's generally a 2-5" snow inland from the lake for parts of Lake, northern Geauga, Ashtabula and Erie Co's but if the band stalls for a few hours over one spot like some models suggest there could locally be a bit more. For most of central and eastern Cuyahoga and spots like southern Geauga probably more like a 1-3" deal in the hills (and less closer to the immediate shoreline). 

Should be a good quick hitting event.  Cle mentions a 280 flow, not quite ideal for out here (I think 290 is our ideal), but still should get some accumulation as the band shifts. 

[OHweather]

I'll go with this for now...expect a couple of W-E oriented bands to set-up Thursday evening in NE Ohio and NW PA, likely one from northeast Cuyahoga, Lake, northern Geauga into Ashtabula, and probably another one into the northeastern half of Erie County in PA. With lake-induced instability climbing to extreme by late evening, with 850mb to lake differentials of over 20C and 700mb to lake differentials of over 30C, and inversion heights and moisture depth to around 10k feet...which through the dendritic growth zone...thermodynamics will support moderate to heavy (and fairly wet) snow. A well-aligned flow, some pre-seeding from Lake Michigan, strong convergence near the eastern lakeshore and some moisture and lift ahead of a vort max will aid in getting a good lake response. Rates in any W-E oriented bands may reach 1" an hour of fairly wet snow beginning Thursday evening. 

Overnight, around 2 AM, winds go more WNW and bands will shift inland accordingly. Max amounts for the event overall will likely be in extreme northeast Cuyahoga, southern Lake and northern Geauga as they'll get a few hours of banding in the evening on the west wind when conditions will be rather ideal...question is how much stuff can add up overnight as it shifts inland. It's a little tricky...normally you take the under on the southern extent of snow with this type of set-up when the band will initially be tied to the eastern lakeshore and into the northern primary Snowbelt...and for now I was more conservative than some models on the southern edge. But the winds at 850mb and over the lake come around to 290-300 degrees overnight which can push snow pretty far inland. Inversion heights, instability and moisture depth gradually decline into Friday morning but snow may be moderate under any bands until about 12z Friday, so there is juice for a few hours after winds go WNW.

For now took a blend of all these ideas and went 1-2" for the northern and eastern half of Cuyahoga, the rest of Geauga and Ashtabula, and clipped extreme northern Summit, Portage and Trumbull with it. Ratios won't be that high, plus winds gradually shift overnight after the shortwave goes through so it may be hard to add up a ton in these areas, though we'll see if the band can briefly get stuck somewhere over Cuyahoga County and produce a small 2 or 3" lollipop there. Heaviest amounts overall in the higher terrain where the W-E bands in the first half of the night impact, where several inches are possible. 

Little shortwave moves through overnight, and that will add a little bit of synoptic moisture and lift between about 10 PM and 3 or 4 AM:

Connection to Lake Michigan:

Strong convergence along the eastern lakeshore:

BUFKIT shows extreme instability, fairly weak shear, moisture depth and inversion heights near 10k feet, and sufficient moisture and instability into the DGZ to make OK flakes aloft:

Winds shift a little more WNW the rest of the night on this run. 

[dta1984]

Winter storm watch, Cle seems pretty bullish.  

 

[NEOH]

44 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Winter storm watch, Cle seems pretty bullish.  

 

 

I was definitely surprised to wake up and see the WSW. I tend to agree with OHWeather re: snow totals given the short duration. Its lake effect though so its tough to forecast. Back to Winter tomorrow. Was hoping to get one last fall clean done but that won't be happening. 

[Jim Martin]

NWS Cleveland opting for Winter Weather Advisories for the upcoming lake effect snow event.

[OHweather]

I was a little surprised to wake up and see the forecast from CLE and the watch. It seems like they've cut it back some today, and as Jim's post mentioned went with advisories which is probably the route I'd go too. If I have time after work today I may re-draw my map a bit, overall no big changes to my thinking. May bring the 2"+ line a little farther south in some areas (especially eastern Cuyahoga and southern Geauga). I could see how someone in either southern Lake / northern Geauga or in the eastern half of inland Erie County PA sees 6" of snow, but I think most of that would come with the W-E oriented bands that will set-up the first portion of the event before the winds shift more WNW. Occasionally those stronger convergent bands ahead of an approaching trough can really rip, but they also tend to hug the eastern lakeshore and go into Erie County so may be too far north for many of the posters here. As the winds go WNW pre-dawn Friday I could still see how the lingering banding gets "stuck" for a few hours along the western lakeshore and drops an OK amount on parts of Cuyahoga and southwestern Geauga, but since the ridging will begin nosing in by then I don't think it'll quite have the same intensity as bands earlier in the night may have. 

I suppose this is as good of a time as any to mention that I'll be moving back to the area in early December...to work at NWS CLE. I am excited to be able to move back to the area after a few winters, and of course am thrilled to be starting a career at the NWS. Hopefully the next several LES seasons keep us all on our toes! 

[Jim Martin]

 

[NEOH]

28 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I was a little surprised to wake up and see the forecast from CLE and the watch. It seems like they've cut it back some today, and as Jim's post mentioned went with advisories which is probably the route I'd go too. If I have time after work today I may re-draw my map a bit, overall no big changes to my thinking. May bring the 2"+ line a little farther south in some areas (especially eastern Cuyahoga and southern Geauga). I could see how someone in either southern Lake / northern Geauga or in the eastern half of inland Erie County PA sees 6" of snow, but I think most of that would come with the W-E oriented bands that will set-up the first portion of the event before the winds shift more WNW. Occasionally those stronger convergent bands ahead of an approaching trough can really rip, but they also tend to hug the eastern lakeshore and go into Erie County so may be too far north for many of the posters here. As the winds go WNW pre-dawn Friday I could still see how the lingering banding gets "stuck" for a few hours along the western lakeshore and drops an OK amount on parts of Cuyahoga and southwestern Geauga, but since the ridging will begin nosing in by then I don't think it'll quite have the same intensity as bands earlier in the night may have. 

I suppose this is as good of a time as any to mention that I'll be moving back to the area in early December...to work at NWS CLE. I am excited to be able to move back to the area after a few winters, and of course am thrilled to be starting a career at the NWS. Hopefully the next several LES seasons keep us all on our toes! 

Good to have you back. That's awesome... Congrats on the new job at CLE! Will be looking forward to reading your AFD's. Now you can get the snow measuring straightened out at CLE finally :). Looks like 2" to maybe 4" for the Chagrin area. Rt.6 on east should be the jackpot area. 

[dta1984]

30 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I was a little surprised to wake up and see the forecast from CLE and the watch. It seems like they've cut it back some today, and as Jim's post mentioned went with advisories which is probably the route I'd go too. If I have time after work today I may re-draw my map a bit, overall no big changes to my thinking. May bring the 2"+ line a little farther south in some areas (especially eastern Cuyahoga and southern Geauga). I could see how someone in either southern Lake / northern Geauga or in the eastern half of inland Erie County PA sees 6" of snow, but I think most of that would come with the W-E oriented bands that will set-up the first portion of the event before the winds shift more WNW. Occasionally those stronger convergent bands ahead of an approaching trough can really rip, but they also tend to hug the eastern lakeshore and go into Erie County so may be too far north for many of the posters here. As the winds go WNW pre-dawn Friday I could still see how the lingering banding gets "stuck" for a few hours along the western lakeshore and drops an OK amount on parts of Cuyahoga and southwestern Geauga, but since the ridging will begin nosing in by then I don't think it'll quite have the same intensity as bands earlier in the night may have. 

I suppose this is as good of a time as any to mention that I'll be moving back to the area in early December...to work at NWS CLE. I am excited to be able to move back to the area after a few winters, and of course am thrilled to be starting a career at the NWS. Hopefully the next several LES seasons keep us all on our toes! 

Congrats man, that's awesome to hear!   It's got to be extremely exciting to be able to get a job at the nws in your home area. 

[Hoosier]

33 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I was a little surprised to wake up and see the forecast from CLE and the watch. It seems like they've cut it back some today, and as Jim's post mentioned went with advisories which is probably the route I'd go too. If I have time after work today I may re-draw my map a bit, overall no big changes to my thinking. May bring the 2"+ line a little farther south in some areas (especially eastern Cuyahoga and southern Geauga). I could see how someone in either southern Lake / northern Geauga or in the eastern half of inland Erie County PA sees 6" of snow, but I think most of that would come with the W-E oriented bands that will set-up the first portion of the event before the winds shift more WNW. Occasionally those stronger convergent bands ahead of an approaching trough can really rip, but they also tend to hug the eastern lakeshore and go into Erie County so may be too far north for many of the posters here. As the winds go WNW pre-dawn Friday I could still see how the lingering banding gets "stuck" for a few hours along the western lakeshore and drops an OK amount on parts of Cuyahoga and southwestern Geauga, but since the ridging will begin nosing in by then I don't think it'll quite have the same intensity as bands earlier in the night may have. 

I suppose this is as good of a time as any to mention that I'll be moving back to the area in early December...to work at NWS CLE. I am excited to be able to move back to the area after a few winters, and of course am thrilled to be starting a career at the NWS. Hopefully the next several LES seasons keep us all on our toes! 

Congrats on the new job!  It'll be great to have you back in the region.  

[OHweather]

Thanks all! Looking forward to it...not only the job, but of course being back in the Midwest. Nor'easters are unique storms and I think they're hard to beat, but the snow climo is very boom or bust on the East Coast for sure...the boring but more reliable nickel and diming of the Midwest has its perks. 

@NEOH WRT snow measuring at the airport, unfortunately the NWS CLE office moved about a year ago...it's near the 480/77 interchange now. While that makes it a shorter drive to work for me, it does mean that we're stuck with what the FAA measures at the airport now. I think at the end of the day it's difficult to measure snow at an open airfield, especially the fluffier snows with some wind that we often get in the middle of winter. There are east coast snow measurement sites that are either not representative of the city they're for (Boston is an example) or are in warmer microclimates (Philly and DCA are examples)...and those all properly irritate the local snow weenies as well. 

[NEOH]

The LES was kind of bust locally. Around 1" IMBY. These short duration LES set-ups are tough. 

[dta1984]

35 minutes ago, NEOH said:

The LES was kind of bust locally. Around 1" IMBY. These short duration LES set-ups are tough. 

Same here, looks like 4-5" in Chardon. 

[NEOH]

1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Same here, looks like 4-5" in Chardon. 

Looked like the bands sat just north of this area last night. The models handled the placement well. 

[Stebo]

On 11/18/2021 at 1:40 PM, OHweather said:

I was a little surprised to wake up and see the forecast from CLE and the watch. It seems like they've cut it back some today, and as Jim's post mentioned went with advisories which is probably the route I'd go too. If I have time after work today I may re-draw my map a bit, overall no big changes to my thinking. May bring the 2"+ line a little farther south in some areas (especially eastern Cuyahoga and southern Geauga). I could see how someone in either southern Lake / northern Geauga or in the eastern half of inland Erie County PA sees 6" of snow, but I think most of that would come with the W-E oriented bands that will set-up the first portion of the event before the winds shift more WNW. Occasionally those stronger convergent bands ahead of an approaching trough can really rip, but they also tend to hug the eastern lakeshore and go into Erie County so may be too far north for many of the posters here. As the winds go WNW pre-dawn Friday I could still see how the lingering banding gets "stuck" for a few hours along the western lakeshore and drops an OK amount on parts of Cuyahoga and southwestern Geauga, but since the ridging will begin nosing in by then I don't think it'll quite have the same intensity as bands earlier in the night may have. 

I suppose this is as good of a time as any to mention that I'll be moving back to the area in early December...to work at NWS CLE. I am excited to be able to move back to the area after a few winters, and of course am thrilled to be starting a career at the NWS. Hopefully the next several LES seasons keep us all on our toes! 

Wonderful news to have one of the best back in the region and at a NWS office too!

[TugHillMatt]

On 11/18/2021 at 1:40 PM, OHweather said:

I was a little surprised to wake up and see the forecast from CLE and the watch. It seems like they've cut it back some today, and as Jim's post mentioned went with advisories which is probably the route I'd go too. If I have time after work today I may re-draw my map a bit, overall no big changes to my thinking. May bring the 2"+ line a little farther south in some areas (especially eastern Cuyahoga and southern Geauga). I could see how someone in either southern Lake / northern Geauga or in the eastern half of inland Erie County PA sees 6" of snow, but I think most of that would come with the W-E oriented bands that will set-up the first portion of the event before the winds shift more WNW. Occasionally those stronger convergent bands ahead of an approaching trough can really rip, but they also tend to hug the eastern lakeshore and go into Erie County so may be too far north for many of the posters here. As the winds go WNW pre-dawn Friday I could still see how the lingering banding gets "stuck" for a few hours along the western lakeshore and drops an OK amount on parts of Cuyahoga and southwestern Geauga, but since the ridging will begin nosing in by then I don't think it'll quite have the same intensity as bands earlier in the night may have. 

I suppose this is as good of a time as any to mention that I'll be moving back to the area in early December...to work at NWS CLE. I am excited to be able to move back to the area after a few winters, and of course am thrilled to be starting a career at the NWS. Hopefully the next several LES seasons keep us all on our toes! 

Much congrats to you! In moving back to the east coast, I sure do miss the charm and friendliness of the midwest (Michigan). Many blessings in your new adventure!

[dta1984]

The Canadian has been showing a snowy upcoming weekend into next week for Northern Ohio the past few runs.  As far as I can tell...it's on it's own though...

[NEOH]

33 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

The Canadian has been showing a snowy upcoming weekend into next week for Northern Ohio the past few runs.  As far as I can tell...it's on it's own though...

It has been hitting the LES hard so far this season... mostly on its own. The weekend time frame does look interesting though. Surprised we are not seeing more a lake response from the cold today. Peaks of sun are coming through so inversion must be really low. 

[OHweather]

The Canadian is probably too snowy over the next 8 days, but the pattern is pretty close to supporting a lot of snow in NE Ohio and NW PA...

The models and ensembles are in pretty good agreement in a western ridge, -NAO, and trough centered over the Northeast with a NW flow across the Great Lakes. There will be a few embedded shortwaves and clippers between Thursday night and next Wednesday bringing some synoptic moisture along with re-enforcing cold that can get lake effect going. There's some decent cross polar flow right now so the cold shots will have some bite. 

It seems the Canadian has the trough slightly farther west than the GFS and Euro, which helps bring better moisture and deeper cold air over Lake Erie...

Canadian:

Euro:

GFS:

While they all agree on a trough over the NE that would bring at least some occasional lake effect snow showers, the Canadian would have a lot more moisture than the GFS and support a lot more snow overall. The Euro is kind of in between but not as snowy as the Canadian. I think off and on snow showers from a combo of the weak clippers and lake effect are likely Thursday night through the first half of next week, with at least some light accumulations. If we can get the trough a little farther west, the potential for windows of heavier lake effect and a bit more synoptic snow from clippers increases.