Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[TheClimateChanger]

Third warmest August, and third warmest summer on record at Akron/Canton. The all-time warmest summers occurred "way back" in 2016 and 2020, narrowly edging out this past summer. Also the top 4 warmest summers there have occurred in the past six years (2016, 2018, 2020, and 2021).

August

Summer

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Similar story in Mansfield. Third warmest August, and the #1 warmest summer on record (edging out the scorching summer of 2020, and the Dust Bowl era summer of 1934).

August

Summer

[NEOH]

Idk. Seemed normal temp wise and very wet  on the eastside of CLE. It would be interesting to see the max/min departures. I'm guessing the min's are responsible. 

[dta1984]

3 hours ago, NEOH said:

Idk. Seemed normal temp wise and very wet  on the eastside of CLE. It would be interesting to see the max/min departures. I'm guessing the min's are responsible. 

Agreed, this summer was wet and humid.   Night time lows most likely causing this.

[NEOH]

15 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Agreed, this summer was wet and humid.   Night time lows most likely causing this.

I wonder why CLE's numbers weren't posted, or the min vs. max departures. Looks look CLE only hit 90 6x over the Summer. The humidity and night time lows definitely caused the departures. 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 9/3/2021 at 8:59 AM, NEOH said:

I wonder why CLE's numbers weren't posted, or the min vs. max departures. Looks look CLE only hit 90 6x over the Summer. The humidity and night time lows definitely caused the departures. 

I didn't include CLE because of apparent sensor issues over the past couple of years. CLE has been running about 1-1.5F cooler, relative to average, than the other first-order climate sites in CLE's forecast office. Based on climatological normals, CLE should be the second warmest site in the summer (TOL being first warmest) and the warmest in the winter. Yet, inexplicably, it's been reporting the second coldest temperatures in the WFO (only YNG cooler). So it would appear that the temperature sensor is currently reading too low.

Location	Departure	Mean Temperature	Normal Mean Temp
Cleveland	+1.8F	72.2F	70.4F
Erie	+4.5F	72.7F	68.2F
Toledo	+2.5F	74.1F	71.6F
Mansfield	+4.2F	73.2F	69.0F
Akron/Canton	+2.9F	72.8F	69.9F
Youngstown	+3.1F	70.6F	67.5F

 

Location	Departure	Mean Temperature	Normal Mean Temp
Cleveland	-1.8F	72.7F	74.5F
Erie	-0.4F	72.3F	72.7F
Toledo	+0.0F	75.4F	75.4F
Mansfield	+1.1F	73.7F	72.6F
Akron/Canton	-0.7F	73.2F	73.9F
Youngstown	-0.4F	71.1F	71.5F

 

Location	Departure	Mean Temperature	Normal Mean Temp
Cleveland	+1.8F	74.8F	73.0F
Erie	+3.8F	75.3F	71.6F
Toledo	+3.2F	76.7F	73.5F
Mansfield	+4.7F	75.7F	71.0F
Akron/Canton	+3.6F	75.9F	72.3F
Youngstown	+3.6F	73.5F	69.9F

Regardless, since you asked, it was the 13th warmest summer in Cleveland, tied with 2011, 2002, and 1934. A sensor error of a degree or so can make a huge difference in the summer rankings since there's not that much variance in the temperature records compared to other seasons. Another degree would have put it closer in line to surrounding sites  (TOL, MFD, CAK and ERI), all of which recorded top three hottest summers. I would surmise that, if it didn't feel too hot, it was likely due to how many recent years are on this list (2016, 2010, 2005, 2018, 2012, 2017, 2021, 2011, 2002, 2019).

[NEOH]

I thought CLE's office moved to Brooklyn Heights last year away from the airport tarmac? If so, that would likely lead to the cooler obs. The airport location was surrounded by concrete. 

[NEOH]

Noticing some color starting to pop locally. Picked up .75" of rain last night... after the dry start to September we needed it. 

Pulled the mix/max departures for the Summer. Probably fair to say the min's are responsible for the positive departures . I doubt anyone would classify this Summer as a scorcher. 

CLEVELAND 
                     
AVG. MAXIMUM    81.8               81.8     0.0
AVG. MINIMUM    64.6               63.4     1.2
MEAN            73.2               72.6     0.6

Toledo 

AVG. MAXIMUM    85.2               84.5     0.7
AVG. MINIMUM    65.7               62.5     3.2
MEAN            75.4               73.5     1.9

Akron/Canton

AVG. MAXIMUM    83.2               82.5     0.7
AVG. MINIMUM    64.7               61.5     3.2
MEAN            74.0               72.0     2.0

YNG

 

AVG. MAXIMUM    81.9               80.9     1.0
AVG. MINIMUM    61.5               58.4     3.1
MEAN            71.7               69.6     2.1

Erie 

AVG. MAXIMUM    80.8               79.4     1.4
AVG. MINIMUM    66.1               62.3     3.8
MEAN            73.4               70.8     2.6

MFD

AVG. MAXIMUM    83.6               81.2     2.4
AVG. MINIMUM    64.8               60.6     4.2
MEAN            74.2               70.9     3.3

[dta1984]

2 hours ago, NEOH said:

Noticing some color starting to pop locally. Picked up .75" of rain last night... after the dry start to September we needed it. 

Pulled the mix/max departures for the Summer. Probably fair to say the min's are responsible for the positive departures . I doubt anyone would classify this Summer as a scorcher. 

CLEVELAND 
                     
AVG. MAXIMUM    81.8               81.8     0.0
AVG. MINIMUM    64.6               63.4     1.2
MEAN            73.2               72.6     0.6

Toledo 

AVG. MAXIMUM    85.2               84.5     0.7
AVG. MINIMUM    65.7               62.5     3.2
MEAN            75.4               73.5     1.9

Akron/Canton

AVG. MAXIMUM    83.2               82.5     0.7
AVG. MINIMUM    64.7               61.5     3.2
MEAN            74.0               72.0     2.0

YNG

 

AVG. MAXIMUM    81.9               80.9     1.0
AVG. MINIMUM    61.5               58.4     3.1
MEAN            71.7               69.6     2.1

Erie 

AVG. MAXIMUM    80.8               79.4     1.4
AVG. MINIMUM    66.1               62.3     3.8
MEAN            73.4               70.8     2.6

MFD

AVG. MAXIMUM    83.6               81.2     2.4
AVG. MINIMUM    64.8               60.6     4.2
MEAN            74.2               70.9     3.3

Ya, figured it was the lows.... definitely not a hot summer by any means. 

Color change is underway, hoping for a pleasant fall season.  

Let's hope the wet pattern can continue into winter.  Speaking of winter...any idea why it takes Cle so long to post the winter observation totals?   I always like comparing what I/we measure against other snowbelt areas. 

[NEOH]

52 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Ya, figured it was the lows.... definitely not a hot summer by any means. 

Color change is underway, hoping for a pleasant fall season.  

Let's hope the wet pattern can continue into winter.  Speaking of winter...any idea why it takes Cle so long to post the winter observation totals?   I always like comparing what I/we measure against other snowbelt areas. 

CLE's always slow. Hoping for a decent LES season. Is this what you are referring to?  https://www.weather.gov/cle/Climate_Snowfall_2019-20

[dta1984]

On 9/15/2021 at 4:25 PM, NEOH said:

CLE's always slow. Hoping for a decent LES season. Is this what you are referring to?  https://www.weather.gov/cle/Climate_Snowfall_2019-20

Yep that's it.  They're usually almost a season behind when they update lately.  

[NEOH]

2.28" of rain IMBY from the storm. Majority fell in a short time yesterday afternoon. Nice to feel the cool temps again. 

[NEOH]

Color change in full gear now. Noticing quite a bit of reddish color... similar to last year. The leaves are falling quickly after turning. 

[dta1984]

On 10/4/2021 at 8:35 AM, NEOH said:

Color change in full gear now. Noticing quite a bit of reddish color... similar to last year. The leaves are falling quickly after turning. 

This past week the leaves have really started to quickly turn and fall.  Not a lot of time to enjoy them as in years past it seems. 

Great October weather, looks like 70s for at least a week.  Let's keep the lake warm for another month.  

[NEOH]

1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

This past week the leaves have really started to quickly turn and fall.  Not a lot of time to enjoy them as in years past it seems. 

Great October weather, looks like 70s for at least a week.  Let's keep the lake warm for another month.  

Yep... hopefully we torch right through October to keep the lake warm. Temps are sitting in the upper 60's to around 70. 

 

[Speedskater]

Thunderstorm Friday evening in Lakewood!

I don't recall that much lightening in a half hour period. (about 6:50 to 7:20PM)

Oh the Thursday afternoon dropped abut 2 inches of rain

[WHEATCENT]

On 10/6/2021 at 2:46 PM, NEOH said:

Yep... hopefully we torch right through October to keep the lake warm. Temps are sitting in the upper 60's to around 70. 

 

Where can I find those Lake Surface temp maps? 

[NEOH]

9 hours ago, WHEATCENT said:

Where can I find those Lake Surface temp maps? 

Here you go - https://www.glerl.noaa.gov//res/glcfs/ncast.php?lake=e

 

[dta1984]

Looks like a good setup for lake effect rain this weekend and more typical October weather. 

"lake-effect rain showers and graupel over and east-southeast of Lake Erie as cold air deepens and
lake-induced CAPE builds to moderate to strong magnitudes.
Isolated lake-effect thunderstorms are possible since model
soundings over the lake depict lake-induced CAPE of at least 200
J/kg in the primary charge separation zone (i.e. the cloud
temperature range from 0C to -20C in the CAPE profile). Daytime
highs should reach the upper 50`s to lower 60`s; much more
typical for mid-October.

Flow aloft becomes northwesterly Saturday night as a longwave
ridge builds from the west. At the surface, a thermal trough
lingers over the Great Lakes while a ridge attempts to build
from the Great Plains. Multiple bands of lake-effect rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms should persist east-
southeast of Lake Erie Saturday night as a well-aligned west-
northwesterly flow of cold and moist air continues and lake-
induced CAPE remains moderate to strong. Odds favor fair weather
outside the lake-effect precip. Overnight lows should reach the
40`s inland to near 50 degrees along the shore of ~67F Lake
Erie."
 

 

[OHweather]

Nice to see some lake effect precip in the forecast this weekend. I feel decent about CLE coming in with an above average snow winter for the first time since 13-14 (I know some other sites have done it once or twice since then, but it's been a pretty barren stretch after the 2000s were relatively "hopping" for snow)

[Floydbuster]

I'm admittedly a climate change skeptic, atleast when it comes to meteorology and hurricanes.

But I have to say, growing up during the mid 1990s in Northeast Ohio, I remember much longer springs with violent severe weather (April/May 1998 stands out in my mind) and much longer, crisper, cooler falls.

Now we seem to have snow till May, absolving us of any Springtime, and then heat until Thanksgiving, giving us virtually no Fall. Unless it's just part of getting older and time going faster, it seems like we don't have many more "seasons" here in Ohio the way we did 20-25 years ago.

There are also other little things I notice. We used to have a ton of blackberry bushes all over the place. Now I rarely see any. What the hell is up with that?

Any thoughts? I remember lots of severe weather here in Ohio back in 1998 and 1999. The violent Ohio thunderstorms would have me flip to The Weather Channel and I'd see graphics for Hurricane Georges or Hurricane Floyd and that began my hurricane tracking.

[TheClimateChanger]

Very warm start to meteorological fall in northern Ohio. 5th warmest at Cleveland, warmest on record at Toledo, Mansfield, and Akron/Canton, and 4th warmest on record at Youngstown. Many recent years show up on the top 10/11 locally - with 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 showing similarly warm starts to autumn. In fact, at Cleveland, 5 of the top 6 warmest periods have occurred in the last 6 years, which makes it more difficult keep tabs on what is normal.

Cleveland

Toledo

Mansfield

Akron/Canton

Youngstown

[NEOH]

On 10/16/2021 at 1:08 PM, Floydbuster said:

I'm admittedly a climate change skeptic, atleast when it comes to meteorology and hurricanes.

But I have to say, growing up during the mid 1990s in Northeast Ohio, I remember much longer springs with violent severe weather (April/May 1998 stands out in my mind) and much longer, crisper, cooler falls.

Now we seem to have snow till May, absolving us of any Springtime, and then heat until Thanksgiving, giving us virtually no Fall. Unless it's just part of getting older and time going faster, it seems like we don't have many more "seasons" here in Ohio the way we did 20-25 years ago.

There are also other little things I notice. We used to have a ton of blackberry bushes all over the place. Now I rarely see any. What the hell is up with that?

Any thoughts? I remember lots of severe weather here in Ohio back in 1998 and 1999. The violent Ohio thunderstorms would have me flip to The Weather Channel and I'd see graphics for Hurricane Georges or Hurricane Floyd and that began my hurricane tracking.

The Spring season does seem shorter than normal, and late Spring cold shots seem much more common. It has been warm this Fall but overall I haven't noticed much difference from previous years. 

We have a lot of blackberry bushes on our property and the heavy snowfall last December crushed most of the mature bushes. They started to grow back this Summer but it will take a few years. 

[NEOH]

On 10/17/2021 at 2:35 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

Very warm start to meteorological fall in northern Ohio. 5th warmest at Cleveland, warmest on record at Toledo, Mansfield, and Akron/Canton, and 4th warmest on record at Youngstown. Many recent years show up on the top 10/11 locally - with 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 showing similarly warm starts to autumn. In fact, at Cleveland, 5 of the top 6 warmest periods have occurred in the last 6 years, which makes it more difficult keep tabs on what is normal.

Cleveland

Toledo

Mansfield

Akron/Canton

Youngstown

No doubt that October has been a scorcher.  Let's keep it going into November. Here's where CLE stand YTD --

Year-to-Date Summary	Observed	Normal	Record Highest	Record Lowest
Avg Max Temperature	64.6	64.1	79.4 in 1938	59.8 in 1984
Avg Min Temperature	47.5	46.6	56.6 in 1938	39.7 in 1963
Avg Temperature	56.1	55.3	68.0 in 1938	50.2 in 1963
Total Precipitation	35.07	33.15	52.46 in 2011	15.54 in 1963

[dta1984]

On 10/18/2021 at 9:00 AM, NEOH said:

The Spring season does seem shorter than normal, and late Spring cold shots seem much more common. It has been warm this Fall but overall I haven't noticed much difference from previous years. 

We have a lot of blackberry bushes on our property and the heavy snowfall last December crushed most of the mature bushes. They started to grow back this Summer but it will take a few years. 

Ya if anything, the spring time is much shorter lately.  Accumulating snow in April has been pretty common, with even early May seeing accumulating snow the past few years.  

Hoping we can hold off a substantial snow this fall as the leaves are definitely behind schedule this year.  

[dta1984]

Pretty good lake Huron fetch going on most of the afternoon.   The leaves have made alot of progress the past week, quickly turning and falling.  

[NEOH]

15 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Pretty good lake Huron fetch going on most of the afternoon.   The leaves have made alot of progress the past week, quickly turning and falling.  

We could really use some dry weather. Still misting out there this morning. I'd say we are at peak right now. Not much time to enjoy the color though as they seem to be falling quickly. More rain on the way this weekend. 

[dta1984]

Pretty good chance of first flakes tomorrow night.  After that, we could certainly use a dry stretch to get fall cleanup done.  

[OHweather]

Interesting little lake effect set-up tonight - Tuesday night for parts of NE OH / NW PA. As dta said, decent shot at flakes at the least. 

Beyond some graupel in heavier showers, it should be mainly rain through tonight with a W to WSW wind keeping activity confined to extreme NE OH into PA / SW NY. It becomes colder aloft on Tuesday with a W flow persisting, with a shortwave moving through late morning / afternoon from west to east, which may focus a couple of decent W-E oriented bands for a few hours and probably causes a few diurnal (non lake effect) showers to pop inland, which could fall as some sort of mixed precip. It should be too warm during the day for more than a slushy coating of snow or graupel in parts of NE OH / NW PA into SW NY, though will likely be cold enough for a decent amount of mixing in any heavier squalls or bands. 

Tuesday night is a little more interesting, with another shortwave moving through late-evening into the overnight from west to east across the lake. One or two more intense W-E oriented bands (along with orographic enhanced showers) should flare-up in the evening, and then at some point overnight shift inland and break up as the shortwave goes by and shifts the flow more NW'rly, and as drier air starts working in later in the night. With 850mb temperatures of -5 to -7C and 925mb temperatures of 0 to -2C through the night, it's close to cold enough to consider decent accumulations in the higher terrain where banding occurs. It's marginal overall, 1-2C warmer aloft than the October of 2013 event that dropped up to 8" in the eastern suburbs, but where banding and terrain combine to maximize potential there could be some localized accumulations of 1-3" in parts of NE OH / NW PA, along with the higher terrain of SW NY Tuesday night. With a well-aligned westerly or WNW flow Tuesday evening, lift from the shortwave, upstream moisture from Lake Michigan and extreme lake-induced instability, there could temporarily be the organization and intensity needed to drop some actual accumulations, especially in the higher terrain. 

We'll see what happens...flakes are a good bet, but there could be some localized but quick accumulations under any banding Tuesday evening into the night...particularly in the higher terrain from extreme eastern Cuyahoga into northern Geauga, inland Erie County PA and inland SW NY. 

[IWXwx]

Although it's not my geographical region, it's nice to see you posting your LES forecasts, @OHweather. Not only does it mean winter is coming, but I always learn a little meteorology from your posts. Welcome back!

Also, lol at this thread being nearly seven years old.