WHEATCENT Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 can anyone post the 18Z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 37 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said: can anyone post the 18Z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Euro showing 20 to 1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Euro showing 20 to 1 ratios? Looks like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Actually even a bit higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 So far, morning runs have mostly been good to Ohio. The Nam is getting a little uncomfortable with sliding southeast. At 10:1, still looking like a 6"+ event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 No major red flags with today's model runs. I like where we sit at this point. Would much rather be on the northwest side that be sweating the wtod. A general 6-10" seems reasonable. Sharp cutoff on the northwest side though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 These models are an absolute joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, WHEATCENT said: These models are an absolute joke Ya seems like an over correction. Let's see how the rest of the runs go today. 12z hrr seems to show lake shore areas getting some enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 it seems the NAM's are an outlier compared to every other model we'll see....-_- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, dta1984 said: Ya seems like an over correction. Let's see how the rest of the runs go today. 12z hrr seems to show lake shore areas getting some enhancement. Huge jumps like that this close in are definitely a red flag... I'd put the NAM in the possible but not probable category. Still think 6-10" generally. There is a surprising amount of open water in the central basin so there will be some lake enhancement which could boost totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Pretty good looking mean @ 10:1 for the I 71 area in Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 55 minutes ago, dta1984 said: Pretty good looking mean @ 10:1 for the I 71 area in Ohio Nice. Good to have a little wiggle room either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Euro looks to be holding and not bumping too far nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, dta1984 said: Euro looks to be holding and not bumping too far nw. Euro looked great. Any movement was just noise. Could be more lake enhancement that what the models are showing. Lots of open water in the central basin and with NNE winds the ice should push around quite a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I think 8-12" is good for the Cleveland area, may be a tad more if some lake-enhancement occurs in Cuyahoga County or points west with a NNE flow. With an 850mb low track near or just east of I-71 I do think the heaviest axis ends up solidly west of that corridor, and could see Akron getting a bit less than Cleveland and Youngstown getting several inches less and trying to sleet or dry slot. This will be another solid storm for the Cleveland area in a winter that's seen a few already. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 41 minutes ago, OHweather said: I think 8-12" is good for the Cleveland area, may be a tad more if some lake-enhancement occurs in Cuyahoga County or points west with a NNE flow. With an 850mb low track near or just east of I-71 I do think the heaviest axis ends up solidly west of that corridor, and could see Akron getting a bit less than Cleveland and Youngstown getting several inches less and trying to sleet or dry slot. This will be another solid storm for the Cleveland area in a winter that's seen a few already. Always appreciated forecast! I'll be pulling for a slightly E track, but can't complain to 8-12" . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 these NAM models lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Glad to see the euro remaining steady. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 How reliable is the RAP model? Keeps laying down 14 or so along the lakeshore haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 HRRR gets mixing all the way up here now rofl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 hours ago, dta1984 said: Glad to see the euro remaining steady. Euro has been rock steady with this storm for awhile. Looks like we'll be several counties away from any potential of any mixing -- perfect spot for the heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, NEOH said: Euro has been rock steady with this storm for awhile. Looks like we'll be several counties away from any potential of any mixing -- perfect spot for the heavy snow. Ya was just thinking the same thing. Riding that line can pay off. Looks like Nam is better for us, but mixing is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 24 minutes ago, dta1984 said: Ya was just thinking the same thing. Riding that line can pay off. Looks like Nam is better for us, but mixing is close. NAM seems to be coming around. Any mixing should remain near or south of Youngstown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, dta1984 said: Ya was just thinking the same thing. Riding that line can pay off. Looks like Nam is better for us, but mixing is close. The old axiom is to get the best snow, you have to be able to smell the rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 hours ago, WHEATCENT said: How reliable is the RAP model? Keeps laying down 14 or so along the lakeshore haha My guess is the rap is a little overdone, but it shows 12+ for a good chunk of northern ohio. Although.. it's actually close to what the Euro has been showing.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amt5626 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Recently got an apartment over in Perrysburg, OH to complete the rest of the "work from home" phase this year while living with one of my old high school friends. Seems like this storm trended a bit NW here to follow me back west . Feeling pretty good about 10–12" here across much of NW Ohio. Will easily be some local totals over a foot. Excited to see how the ratios pan out. Only 16° at TDZ right now, 20 at CLE. I wouldn't be worried about the HRRR showing mixing that far north back in NE Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 37 minutes ago, amt5626 said: Recently got an apartment over in Perrysburg, OH to complete the rest of the "work from home" phase this year while living with one of my old high school friends. Seems like this storm trended a bit NW here to follow me back west . Feeling pretty good about 10–12" here across much of NW Ohio. Will easily be some local totals over a foot. Excited to see how the ratios pan out. Only 16° at TDZ right now, 20 at CLE. I wouldn't be worried about the HRRR showing mixing that far north back in NE Ohio. That area looks to be in the jackpot zone for sure. Given how flat and open western Ohio is I'm sure there will be some huge drifts. Still feel good about 8-12"+ locally. Euro did bump north a bit at 12z. Still keeps mixing southeast of the area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Lots of sleeting in Columbus and Cincinnati hope we stay all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, WHEATCENT said: Lots of sleeting in Columbus and Cincinnati hope we stay all snow Let's hope it doesn't make it up this far. Small flake steady snow at the moment, but there are some heavier returns near Akron headed this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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