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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


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15 hours ago, NEOH said:

Steady snow falling... large flakes. Looks like 1-3" likely tonight as the trough sits over the region. 

Yep, I had just shy of 3" since yesterday evening. 

Looking forward to end of next week.  Looks like snow on Christmas and probably some lake effect after as arctic air finally makes an appearance. 

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51 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Yep, I had just shy of 3" since yesterday evening. 

Looking forward to end of next week.  Looks like snow on Christmas and probably some lake effect after as arctic air finally makes an appearance. 

Another picturesque snowfall last night. The Christmas time frame definitely looks interesting. Nice to have some action to track. 

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Hope so. CLE seems less than impressed in their most recent long term section of discussion. Pretty much have written it off. Think that was the shortest duration of an HWO I have seen before pulled, when they were touting LES potential as early as this morning. In addition, BUF afternoon HWO trumpeting LES northeast of both lakes.

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11 hours ago, MAIDEsNow.2 said:

Hope so. CLE seems less than impressed in their most recent long term section of discussion. Pretty much have written it off. Think that was the shortest duration of an HWO I have seen before pulled, when they were touting LES potential as early as this morning. In addition, BUF afternoon HWO trumpeting LES northeast of both lakes.

CLE’s disco was odd yesterday. Whoever wrote that seemed angry :). Models should have a much better handle tomorrow night. Still a long ways out. 

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1 hour ago, NEOH said:

CLE’s disco was odd yesterday. Whoever wrote that seemed angry :). Models should have a much better handle tomorrow night. Still a long ways out. 

Ya the tone was very pessimistic lol.  

Had 1" of very low ratio snow last night. Hoping we get a favorable wind direction for thurs-fri.  

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1 minute ago, NEOH said:

No big trends in the models today. If any big changes come they would likely start to show up tonight. CLE calling for 2-4" in the higher terrain tonight. Still have snow on the ground but patchy at this point so it will be nice to freshen things up. 

Ya I'm interested in how the short range models will set up the lake effect for Thurs-Fri.   Hoping for something other than predominantly sw or straight w winds. 

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20 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Ya I'm interested in how the short range models will set up the lake effect for Thurs-Fri.   Hoping for something other than predominantly sw or straight w winds. 

Looks like the winds start wnw'erly then veer westerly/wsw'erly. We may be able to cash in on a brief period but northeast of here looks to do well... just based on current model runs of course. 

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Ya, a W wind definitely benefits areas closer to the lakeshore.

Never got cold enough here last night for any accumulation.

Another odd morning write-up from CLE with no mention of potential significant impacts other than the hwo.  Morning runs seem to have ticked west increasing snow totals a bit for us. 

 

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56 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Ya, a W wind definitely benefits areas closer to the lakeshore.

Never got cold enough here last night for any accumulation.

Another odd morning write-up from CLE with no mention of potential significant impacts other than the hwo.  Morning runs seem to have ticked west increasing snow totals a bit for us. 

 

Morning runs definitely came west. Here are the CMC, GFS and Euro ensemble's. Pretty good consensus at this point. Timing couldn't be any better. 

 

 

download (1).jpg

download (2).jpg

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40 minutes ago, NEOH said:

12z runs have improved a bit for Northern Ohio. Euro was interesting as the low passes it moves to the NE (instead of due North) and keeps the winds WNW'erly for a longer period time. 

Definitely liking the trends today.  Hard to not get excited, but we've been burned before.   Any amount of snow falling on Christmas will be great!

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Nice. 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches possible with locally higher amounts. Winds could gust as
  high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga, Ashtabula Inland and Ashtabula
  Lakeshore counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning.
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3 hours ago, NEOH said:

Do you only look at the GFS? It has been on its own with the storm. Trends over night were a little further east but eastern Ohio is still in a good spot. 

Agree, seems other than the GFS, we are still sitting ok.   We will have high ratios and lake enhancement on our side .   The CMC, rgem are probably a bit over done, but may be best case.  

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8 hours ago, OHweather said:

Just got to Reminderville, good timing. Should be a good 6-8” here and 8-12” for the NEOH/Dta area, and maybe a bit higher along and just north of route 6. 0z models have stopped the bleeding and ticked back west. 

Welcome back. Good to see the models tick back west. Things are lined up pretty well at this point.

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2 hours ago, NEOH said:

Welcome back. Good to see the models tick back west. Things are lined up pretty well at this point.

The timing of this one is working out great for sure. Of all the times I came in for a weekend or over the holidays the last two winters we never snowed more than an inch...coming off of the 9” I got from the “big storm” in NJ last week a nice little stretch! 

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Flipped to all snow here in Strongsville. Already accumulating in the mulch and on the cars. Temp got down to 29 before rain switched to a brief mix. All surfaces are quite icy out there. Looking at about 6–8" here. Excited for the first white Christmas in white seems like forever.

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