WHEATCENT Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said: Looking fantastic! Anxious to hear ohweather's thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 Here are the overly colorful maps I posted on FB this afternoon: In general, rain changes to snow on Monday in western and into north-central OH, and in NE Ohio Monday evening. The synoptic lift is moderate across western OH for much of Monday, with the main lift shifting to over Lake Erie and adjacent northern / eastern Ohio Monday night through Tuesday (with just weaker lift farther south / west by this part of the storm). The lift slowly pulls to the east Tuesday night. Lake to 850mb temp differentials exceed 13C Monday evening and grow to over 15C overnight, staying at around 15C or slightly greater through Tuesday night, with inversion heights climbing to around 7k feet Monday night and staying there through Tuesday evening before diminishing. The flow is more NNW to NW Monday night and fairly strong, so the lake enhancement will focus from the secondary Snowbelt south/southwest of Cleveland into the higher terrain of Geauga County. There won't be organized bands, but a general area of better rates focused on the higher terrain of the secondary Snowbelt and western primary Snowbelt. On Tuesday the flow gradually weakens a bit and veers to WNW and eventually W through the day. The weaker flow, longer fetch, and increasing convergence from Cuyahoga County points east may allow for a more organized area of heavy lake enhancement Tuesday into Tuesday evening, that gradually works east Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the storm slowly pulls away. The synoptic snow won't be that impressive, but should still yield 2-4" for much of the state given the duration, even if it's not very exciting. In northern and eastern OH where the synoptic lift lasts the longest, 4-6" should fall, but again it will be rather spread out. In the central highlands near MFD, upslope and the prolonged nature of the event should give a boost to totals, with 6" or so possible. Elsewhere, the secondary and primary Snowbelt will see a prolonged period of moderate to heavy snow, and ratios should actually be OK Tuesday into Tuesday night, especially in the hills. Over a foot of snow is quite likely in the higher terrain, including Erie County PA, with max amounts possibly pushing 20" somewhere in eastern Cuyahoga or northern Geauga. This attached NAM sounding from the east side for Tuesday evening is classic, with enough weak synoptic lift for snow, and a healthy layer of instability and lift in the low-levels due to the lake enhancement. It could be colder for ideal ratios, but once surface temperatures drop below freezing ratios should be a little better than 10:1. The lakeshore is tough...my guess is the winds go close enough to offshore late in the event for some accumulation, but more than a couple-few slushy inches seems like a stretch...with a very quick increase inland. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amt5626 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 0z NAM looks like a great run for N OH and the CLE suburbs. The surface low comes in notably stronger and hangs around a bit longer over Lake Ontario. Wind speeds over the lake seem optimal (~15 knots) for lake enhancement during the NW flow regime Monday night into Tuesday. 0-1 km shear should stay fairly unidirectional then. Getting excited here to kick off meteorological winter with a solid storm. Hoping the Nina pattern allows for more of these kind of interior low tracks through DJF. Worried things get too warm though majority of the time, especially after December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Is the NAM full of it for showing 15+ right on the shoreline?e? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 37 imby with rain and a few slushy flakes mixing in. The snow will be falling on really saturated ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 No big changes overall to NE OH for this, other than to add in the 15-24" area that I should've just added yesterday! The duration and likely intensity are both up there. There's enough synoptic lift to support light to at times moderate snow on its own from this evening through Tuesday afternoon as the closed low stalls to the east-northeast. On top of that, it's cold enough for borderline moderate lake-induced CAPE with lake to 850mb temp differentials of 15-18C overnight tonight through Tuesday evening and EL heights of 7-8k feet and obviously, plenty of moisture and lift. There will be a broad cyclonic and convergent flow, which the lakeshore will help augment, and probably some upstream help from Lake MI as well Tuesday into Tuesday night. Ratios tonight will likely be less than 10:1 due to lift focused below the DGZ and initially mild temperatures, but should actually fluff out a good bit on Tuesday away from the lake as the DGZ lowers into the area of lift and deepens considerably. My guess is that from Lorain and Medina Counties east it just rips, consistently near or over 1" per hour, especially in the hills, from later this evening through Tuesday evening. The timing will be slightly later to the east. There's good synoptic lift and a much better lake-induced component than usual for an enhancement event. I don't think we've had a lake enhanced set-up this prolonged and intense since the winter of 2010-11. The greatest lake enhancement will focus on Lorain, Medina, Cuyahoga, Summit, and western Geauga tonight into early Tuesday and then gradually shift into the primary Snowbelt Tuesday into Tuesday evening, before ending by early Wednesday. Widespread totals of near or over a foot seem exceedingly likely away from the immediate lakeshore for a long swath, with max amounts pushing or exceeding 2 feet...most likely in the higher terrain in eastern Cuyahoga and Geauga County, though there may be a small spot in southwestern Cuyahoga, eastern Lorain, or northern Medina that also goes over 15", though I didn't explicitly draw it in. My opinion is these totals may be a bit too low across the board given hi-res model agreement on 1.50-2.50" of QPF as snow from the Cleveland metro points east, but wasn't sure exactly how high I wanted to go (plus I was out of colors). I don't have a great feel for the immediate lakeshore with this. It will be significantly less than in the hills, but the winds may go offshore enough later in the event for some accumulation to the water. The significant amount of snow, initially wet nature, and gusty winds will really make travel difficult...and there will probably be some power outages due to the initially heavy, wet nature of the snow and gusty winds. I'm definitely a bit jealous I'm missing this one! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Always appreciate it @OHweather! Love your analysis. I'm trying to remain cautious, but this should be one heck of a way to kick off winter. Up to 24" in my pc fc. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amt5626 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Finally changed over to all snow in Strongsville. Snow accumulating on all surfaces here including the roads. Looks like places north and east closer to downtown and the coast are still struggling to fully change over. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 I've got 8.5" on the deck this morning. Heavy wet snow, it's definitely scenic, but causing some more tree damage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Beautiful scenery out there this morning. Over 8" now as well. The trees are taking a beating though... Lots of branches coming down. Great way to start to December. The flake size has been rather small. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 The radar has lit up noticeably over the last couple of hours as some better synoptic lift has dropped across the lake. Cams also show much larger flakes, so snow growth appears to finally be better and I'm guessing away from the immediate lake ratios are probably somewhere in the 12-15:1 range. The lift doesn't go away for several more hours so you'll really stack it thick from eastern Lorain County points east the rest of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amt5626 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Measured about 11" at noon. Surely over a foot now. With those lake bands dropping south, could even tack on another couple or few inches. Branches are really weighed down. Surprised we have not lost power. 20201201.heic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Right around 7" here. Better than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Power has been out most of the day, it's a mess out there. We left for a hotel. I had 17" when we left around 5. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amt5626 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 I was at around 15" at 6 pm. Had about 4.5" fall between noon and 6 pm. Definitely one of the best events of my 15 years of tracking weather here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 What a storm. No power with trees and branches down all over. Think we had anywhere from 18-20” of cement. Generators and chainsaws will be heard for a few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 we got about 11 inches here about half a mile from the lakeshore it'll be gone quickly as my Thermometer is currently at 39 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 4 hours ago, NEOH said: What a storm. No power with trees and branches down all over. Think we had anywhere from 18-20” of cement. Generators and chainsaws will be heard for a few days. Heck of a storm. It's amazing the difference between this storm and a lake effect storm of the same amount. So much more substantial. I went by the house to plow the driveway. Had 3" additional since we left yesterday. Storm total of 20", matches well with Chagrin reported 20" and Chardon 22". 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Finally got power back last night. Definitely the heaviest snow we've had in some time... not lake effect fluff. Lots of compaction as the ground was warm prior to the snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Solid snowpack for over a week now... although it has turned into a glacier for the most part. Despite a fairly poor pattern we've had a great start to December. We'll see what the rest of the month brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 interesting NAM model... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 21 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said: interesting NAM model... Ya definitely. The Nam has been trying to throw snow back into Ohio for the past few runs. Seems to be increasing every run. Would be nice if there was support from other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, dta1984 said: Ya definitely. The Nam has been trying to throw snow back into Ohio for the past few runs. Seems to be increasing every run. Would be nice if there was support from other models. The NAM is certainly an outlier but a general 1-3"+ west to east looks likely. Let's get a NW trend going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 interesting NAM model...The rare NW Ohio lake effect in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 hours ago, WHEATCENT said: interesting NAM model... Meanwhile on the 12z GFS: Today's 12z Euro: 12z HRRR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12z WRF - has some type of inverted trough feature all the way back through the south lakeshore counties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Snow has started. Actually coming down pretty steady. Not expecting much but 1-3" looks likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1.5" out there this morning. Snowing lightly, maybe add a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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