OHweather Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 There are a number of limiting factors for significant accums Sunday afternoon - night, especially in NE Ohio...marginal surface temps, flow turning off the warm lake, increasingly short fetch, and strong and gradually turning winds through the event. With that said, it's an impressively cold airmass with extreme instability, enough synoptic moisture plus some upstream connections, and synoptic support from a surface trough and upper-level trough moving through Sunday evening. I expect a few W-E oriented bands to develop from Cleveland up the lakeshore through NW PA / SW NY Sunday afternoon ahead of the trough and swing south/southwest during the evening as the wind turns. One or two of these bands may be quite intense with thunder / lightning. Temperatures are marginal for snow, but these bands would likely fall as all graupel or snow, especially inland in the hills. Later in the evening and through the night, any dominant afternoon or early-evening bands will likely break into weaker NW flow multi-bands, with most bands being weak but one or two bands with upstream connections remaining more intense. NW PA downwind of Lake Huron seems most likely to see this, but there will probably be one or two somewhat weaker upstream connections in the Cleveland area that can persist through the night. Conditions become unfavorable for lake effect by Monday morning so stuff will be winding down by then. Accumulations with these types of set-ups are tricky...the terrain downwind of the lake in the primary NE OH and NW PA Snowbelt may see a quick accumulation Sunday afternoon / early evening as the dominant band swings through with the trough, perhaps a quick inch or two somewhere. Sunday night, terrain and upstream connections will be needed for any accumulations of note with a short fetch, fast flow, and marginal temperatures for accumulating snow with a flow straight off the lake. The Huron connected band will probably be intense through the night but may move enough to keep totals from getting too out of control...and any weaker upstream connections in the Cleveland area may drop some accumulation, but also will likely move a little so it'll be hard to add up. Given all of this, I think a general 2-6" in the higher terrain of NW PA is a good bet, with less closer to the lake. In NE OH I think it's more of a 1 to locally 3" overall in the terrain of both the secondary Snowbelt (SW Cuyahoga, northern Medina, parts of NW Summit Counties) as well as the primary Snowbelt (eastern Cuyahoga, southern Lake, parts of Geauga, parts of Ashtabula...the strong winds will probably push accumulating snow into parts of Portage and Trumbull as well in any bands)...and little to none along the lakeshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Had 1" here overnight. Doesn't seem it got quite cold enough. Snow seemed to have quite a bit of graupel mixed in as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 hour ago, dta1984 said: Had 1" here overnight. Doesn't seem it got quite cold enough. Snow seemed to have quite a bit of graupel mixed in as well. Its nice to see the ground white again. Yep, it was mostly graupel. Temps hovered around freezing throughout. Good call by OHWeather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 What an incredible stretch of weather. The western basin of lake erie has actually warmed a bit -- wonder how often that happens in November. Let's hold on to the warmth as long as possible for the first legit lake effect event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 28 minutes ago, NEOH said: What an incredible stretch of weather. The western basin of lake erie has actually warmed a bit -- wonder how often that happens in November. Let's hold on to the warmth as long as possible for the first legit lake effect event. Wow that is incredible! Agreed, keep warming the lake , and be primed for the first cold outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 54 degree water temp in mid November is impressive for Cleveland. Hell even here the ocean is still 70 off Folly Beach so the fact that lake temps in November aren't far off ocean temps is wild. Could lead to an epic & snowy winter, bad winters almost always follow active Hurricane seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 1 hour ago, nwohweather said: 54 degree water temp in mid November is impressive for Cleveland. Hell even here the ocean is still 70 off Folly Beach so the fact that lake temps in November aren't far off ocean temps is wild. Could lead to an epic & snowy winter, bad winters almost always follow active Hurricane seasons Definitely impressive. But Lake Erie is so shallow it just takes a couple of cold shots and the temp plummets. I have no problem with torching from now to 12/1. The warm weather has been great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 17 minutes ago, NEOH said: Definitely impressive. But Lake Erie is so shallow it just takes a couple of cold shots and the temp plummets. I have no problem with torching from now to 12/1. The warm weather has been great. Oh believe me I know, I spent quite a bit of my life fishing in the Western Basin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Nasty winds yesterday afternoon. We lost power for a few hours, and it flickered quite a bit afterwards. Looks like we were lucky as there are still quite a few without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 1 hour ago, dta1984 said: Nasty winds yesterday afternoon. We lost power for a few hours, and it flickered quite a bit afterwards. Looks like we were lucky as there are still quite a few without power. The wind was crazy. Lots of power outages and trees down. I lost about 10 dead ash trees in my yard thanks to the emerald ash borer -- another great import from Asia . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, NEOH said: The wind was crazy. Lots of power outages and trees down. I lost about 10 dead ash trees in my yard thanks to the emerald ash borer -- another great import from Asia . Haha ! I lost one as well, was going to cut it down next summer, but looks like nature did it for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, dta1984 said: Haha ! I lost one as well, was going to cut it down next summer, but looks like nature did it for me. We have couple of acres that had mostly live ash trees when we moved in 7 years ago. The whole landscape has changed now. Only maple, elm and black locust remain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 3 hours ago, NEOH said: We have couple of acres that had mostly live ash trees when we moved in 7 years ago. The whole landscape has changed now. Only maple, elm and black locust remain now. That's incredible. I've lost 4 ash in the time I've been here. Short range models are looking interesting for tomorrow night-weds. Or...maybe the snow maps are mis-representing rain as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 2 hours ago, dta1984 said: That's incredible. I've lost 4 ash in the time I've been here. Short range models are looking interesting for tomorrow night-weds. Or...maybe the snow maps are mis-representing rain as snow. The WRF shows a band focused toward western geauga county. The rgem isn't bad as well. Wouldn't be surprised to pick-up a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 Nice to see the snow this morning. Very scenic with the snow covering everything. Perhaps a couple of inches here but W PA to W NY should be the big winners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 3 hours ago, NEOH said: Nice to see the snow this morning. Very scenic with the snow covering everything. Perhaps a couple of inches here but W PA to W NY should be the big winners. Ya nice to see everything snow covered. I've got 1.75" on the deck. Got a nice burst at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 Look forward to re-visiting these next Tuesday - 12z CMC and GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 11-12” in Noble County. Definitely not happening. It takes a pretty rare storm to produce like that in SE Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 1 hour ago, WestMichigan said: 11-12” in Noble County. Definitely not happening. It takes a pretty rare storm to produce like that in SE Ohio. It takes a rare storm to produce any of those amounts in Ohio. This is a synoptic snowfall challenged location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amt5626 Posted November 27, 2020 Share Posted November 27, 2020 Glad to be tracking winter storms again after what felt like an endless spring, summer, and fall. This upcoming system could be pretty interesting if some of the recent GFS solutions pan out. Our southern stream of energy is already over Arizona and should be fairly well sampled at this point. The northern stream has yet to come inland over British Columbia but should do so later tonight. I expect things will be much clearer after seeing all of tomorrow's model runs with that piece better sampled. That said, the GFS has been trending toward the southern stream outrunning the northern stream, thus leading to a less potent, warmer, and quicker system over the last couple model cycles. Very small details in this interaction change everything for us, as is always the case with this kind of setup so early in the season. We will still see backend snow with lake enhancement, but I am increasingly doubtful of any of the major impact solutions we have been seeing. Hopefully can at least get moderate accumulations. My Siberian puppy was in heaven playing in the last bit of snow we received. He would not come back inside the house . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 lmao tonight's euro is a joke go from a foot in mentor one run and down to an inch fffff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 was fun while it lasted rofl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 Don't think those typically do good with lake effect You need to wait on short range models to pick up on the lake enhancement setup. Should still be a good first big accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 21 minutes ago, dta1984 said: Don't think those typically do good with lake effect You need to wait on short range models to pick up on the lake enhancement setup. Should still be a good first big accumulating snow. yeah the long range models don't do well with LE, I'm in Mentor so we hardly ever get good lake effect here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted November 28, 2020 Share Posted November 28, 2020 1 hour ago, WHEATCENT said: yeah the long range models don't do well with LE, I'm in Mentor so we hardly ever get good lake effect here. This looks like a classic early season borderline temperature storm that's going to be a rainer near the lakeshore. I don't know how close to the lake you are but I can see the lake from my window so I'm in the heart of the screwzone. The good thing for you is that even if this one fails you'll have plenty more chances to get slammed. Can't say that here where we only get synoptic snow. This may well be the big event of the entire winter and we're likely to be shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 18 hours ago, vpbob21 said: This looks like a classic early season borderline temperature storm that's going to be a rainer near the lakeshore. I don't know how close to the lake you are but I can see the lake from my window so I'm in the heart of the screwzone. The good thing for you is that even if this one fails you'll have plenty more chances to get slammed. Can't say that here where we only get synoptic snow. This may well be the big event of the entire winter and we're likely to be shut out. With borderline temps it will be tough to accumulate if you are that close to the lake but it should be cold enough for a few inches if the snowfall rates are high. Everyone should see a period of heavy snow. We will definitely benefit from elevation and distance from the lake out here. Looks like a significant snowfall south of the lakeshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 10+ right up to the shoreline almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 All of the 12z runs were awesome for northern ohio. Cautiously optimistic about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 19 minutes ago, NEOH said: All of the 12z runs were awesome for northern ohio. Cautiously optimistic about this one. Ya things are definitely trending in the right direction. I would expect a winter storm watch this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 this new NAM is crazy over lake county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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