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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


Trent
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There are a number of limiting factors for significant accums Sunday afternoon - night, especially in NE Ohio...marginal surface temps, flow turning off the warm lake, increasingly short fetch, and strong and gradually turning winds through the event. With that said, it's an impressively cold airmass with extreme instability, enough synoptic moisture plus some upstream connections, and synoptic support from a surface trough and upper-level trough moving through Sunday evening. 

I expect a few W-E oriented bands to develop from Cleveland up the lakeshore through NW PA / SW NY Sunday afternoon ahead of the trough and swing south/southwest during the evening as the wind turns. One or two of these bands may be quite intense with thunder / lightning. Temperatures are marginal for snow, but these bands would likely fall as all graupel or snow, especially inland in the hills. Later in the evening and through the night, any dominant afternoon or early-evening bands will likely break into weaker NW flow multi-bands, with most bands being weak but one or two bands with upstream connections remaining more intense. NW PA downwind of Lake Huron seems most likely to see this, but there will probably be one or two somewhat weaker upstream connections in the Cleveland area that can persist through the night. Conditions become unfavorable for lake effect by Monday morning so stuff will be winding down by then. 

Accumulations with these types of set-ups are tricky...the terrain downwind of the lake in the primary NE OH and NW PA Snowbelt may see a quick accumulation Sunday afternoon / early evening as the dominant band swings through with the trough, perhaps a quick inch or two somewhere. Sunday night, terrain and upstream connections will be needed for any accumulations of note with a short fetch, fast flow, and marginal temperatures for accumulating snow with a flow straight off the lake. The Huron connected band will probably be intense through the night but may move enough to keep totals from getting too out of control...and any weaker upstream connections in the Cleveland area may drop some accumulation, but also will likely move a little so it'll be hard to add up. 

Given all of this, I think a general 2-6" in the higher terrain of NW PA is a good bet, with less closer to the lake. In NE OH I think it's more of a 1 to locally 3" overall in the terrain of both the secondary Snowbelt (SW Cuyahoga, northern Medina, parts of NW Summit Counties) as well as the primary Snowbelt (eastern Cuyahoga, southern Lake, parts of Geauga, parts of Ashtabula...the strong winds will probably push accumulating snow into parts of Portage and Trumbull as well in any bands)...and little to none along the lakeshore. 

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1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Had 1" here overnight.  Doesn't seem it got quite cold enough.  Snow seemed to have quite a bit of graupel mixed in as well.  

Its nice to see the ground white again. Yep, it was mostly graupel.  Temps hovered around freezing throughout. Good call by OHWeather! 

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28 minutes ago, NEOH said:

What an incredible stretch of weather. The western basin of lake erie has actually warmed a bit -- wonder how often that happens in November. Let's hold on to the warmth as long as possible for the first legit lake effect event. 

Wow that is incredible!

Agreed, keep warming the lake , and be primed for the first cold outbreak. 

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1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

54 degree water temp in mid November is impressive for Cleveland. Hell even here the ocean is still 70 off Folly Beach so the fact that lake temps in November aren't far off ocean temps is wild. Could lead to an epic & snowy winter, bad winters almost always follow active Hurricane seasons

Definitely impressive. But Lake Erie is so shallow it just takes a couple of cold shots and the temp plummets. I have no problem with torching from now to 12/1. The warm weather has been great. 

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1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Nasty winds yesterday afternoon.  We lost power for a few hours, and it flickered quite a bit afterwards.  Looks like we were lucky as there are still quite a few without power. 

The wind was crazy. Lots of power outages and trees down. I lost about 10 dead ash trees in my yard thanks to the emerald ash borer -- another great import from Asia :lol:

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2 minutes ago, NEOH said:

The wind was crazy. Lots of power outages and trees down. I lost about 10 dead ash trees in my yard thanks to the emerald ash borer -- another great import from Asia :lol:

Haha :lol:!

I lost one as well, was going to cut it down next summer, but looks like nature did it for me. 

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2 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Haha :lol:!

I lost one as well, was going to cut it down next summer, but looks like nature did it for me. 

We have couple of acres that had mostly live ash trees when we moved in 7 years ago. The whole landscape has changed now. Only maple, elm and black locust remain now. 

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3 hours ago, NEOH said:

We have couple of acres that had mostly live ash trees when we moved in 7 years ago. The whole landscape has changed now. Only maple, elm and black locust remain now. 

That's incredible.  I've lost 4 ash in the time I've been here. 

Short range models are looking interesting for tomorrow night-weds. Or...maybe the snow maps are mis-representing rain as snow.   

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2 hours ago, dta1984 said:

That's incredible.  I've lost 4 ash in the time I've been here. 

Short range models are looking interesting for tomorrow night-weds. Or...maybe the snow maps are mis-representing rain as snow.   

The WRF shows a band focused toward western geauga county. The rgem isn't bad as well. Wouldn't be surprised to pick-up a couple of inches. 

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3 hours ago, NEOH said:

Nice to see the snow this morning. Very scenic with the snow covering everything. Perhaps a couple of inches here but W PA to W NY should be the big winners. 

Ya nice to see everything snow covered.  I've got 1.75" on the deck.  Got a nice burst at the moment.  

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Glad to be tracking winter storms again after what felt like an endless spring, summer, and fall. This upcoming system could be pretty interesting if some of the recent GFS solutions pan out. Our southern stream of energy is already over Arizona and should be fairly well sampled at this point. The northern stream has yet to come inland over British Columbia but should do so later tonight. I expect things will be much clearer after seeing all of tomorrow's model runs with that piece better sampled. That said, the GFS has been trending toward the southern stream outrunning the northern stream, thus leading to a less potent, warmer, and quicker system over the last couple model cycles. Very small details in this interaction change everything for us, as is always the case with this kind of setup so early in the season. We will still see backend snow with lake enhancement, but I am increasingly doubtful of any of the major impact solutions we have been seeing. Hopefully can at least get moderate accumulations. My Siberian puppy was in heaven playing in the last bit of snow we received. He would not come back inside the house :lol:.

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21 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Don't think those typically do good with lake effect  You need to wait on short range models to pick up on the lake enhancement setup.  Should still be a good first big accumulating snow. 

yeah the long range models don't do well with LE, I'm in Mentor so we hardly ever get good lake effect here. 

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1 hour ago, WHEATCENT said:

yeah the long range models don't do well with LE, I'm in Mentor so we hardly ever get good lake effect here. 

This looks like a classic early season borderline temperature storm that's going to be a rainer near the lakeshore.  I don't know how close to the lake you are but I can see the lake from my window so I'm in the heart of the screwzone.  The good thing for you is that even if this one fails you'll have plenty more chances to get slammed.  Can't say that here where we only get synoptic snow.  This may well be the big event of the entire winter and we're likely to be shut out.

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18 hours ago, vpbob21 said:

This looks like a classic early season borderline temperature storm that's going to be a rainer near the lakeshore.  I don't know how close to the lake you are but I can see the lake from my window so I'm in the heart of the screwzone.  The good thing for you is that even if this one fails you'll have plenty more chances to get slammed.  Can't say that here where we only get synoptic snow.  This may well be the big event of the entire winter and we're likely to be shut out.

With borderline temps it will be tough to accumulate if you are that close to the lake but it should be cold enough for a few inches if the snowfall rates are high. Everyone should see a period of heavy snow. We will definitely benefit from elevation and distance from the lake out here. Looks like a significant snowfall south of the lakeshore.

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