Jackstraw Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm supposed to drive up to Norwalk Ohio leaving North Central In. at 4am Monday. I usually take 69 and cut over on 30 then back North. Any guesses on if the roads will be passable if this thing pans out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Excitement building as the 0z models trend strong with the storm but still keep northern Ohio all snow. All models show 0.9-1.2" of QPF up to or very close to Cleveland. I understand some reasons to be cautious and have been burned by some storms the last few winters myself. I also agree with some of the reasons to be somewhat optimistic that Trent gave. My preliminary thinking was 6-10", and tomorrow I'll put together a forecast. Given the potential for an extended period of overrunning snows and then heavy snows during the evening on the nose of the LLJ, local amounts could top a foot. But I'll decide what I want to do with that on Saturday. Cool. C'mon, doesn't a white knuckle drive through the hills sound fun? It does, but at the end of the day 200 miles is a little too much white knuckling I'm debating staying until Monday morning, but have work to turn in Monday at noon so I'm not sure what I'll do. This could be one to be here for. I'm supposed to drive up to Norwalk Ohio leaving North Central In. at 4am Monday. I usually take 69 and cut over on 30 then back North. Any guesses on if the roads will be passable if this thing pans out? The snow will start lightening by that point in NW Ohio, but the snow will be powdery and winds will be gusty, so you could have some decent issues. NW Ohio can be nearly crippled by 6-12" of snow, especially if it's windy. Maybe since 30 is a main road they'll keep it clearer though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nice model runs last night/this morning. CLE's AFD offers very little in terms of a forecast. Sounds like they are relying on CIPS. And, want to wait to see where the heavy snow is falling to determine where the heaviest snow will fall. Could be the biggest synoptic storm in quite some time for this area. Double digits seem quite likely, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's really easy to get caught up in those snowfall maps posted everywhere, but those are all ratio induced. The QPF maxima is still in a band across IL, through N IN, and N OH on most models. If you take a 30% cut off some of the higher QPF totals and apply a modest 10-12:1 ratio, then storm totals of 8-10" seem reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 My brother just asked me what they will get in Canton. Wow. Hard call. I think some rain will happen in the middle of the storm, if any rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Clown maps seem to have decreased totals for us some, but qpf is still > 1.1". I'm guessing the ratios are getting lower. I think most of the mixing is still below rt 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Toledo and NW Ohio looks golden! There's no denying that there's been a slow NW shift with the storm each run. We are starting to run out of breathing room before mixing issues become a problem in NE Ohio. Right now the lakeshore areas should max out around 30 Sunday afternoon and fall quickly afterwards. QPF looks like a solid 1" on most models. Taking a 30% reduction and applying a straight 10:1 ratio still gives most areas 7-10" of snow. Perhaps ratios will play out much higher, but it's one of those aspects of a storm that you can easily get burned on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Toledo and NW Ohio looks golden! There's no denying that there's been a slow NW shift with the storm each run. We are starting to run out of breathing room before mixing issues become a problem in NE Ohio. Right now the lakeshore areas should max out around 30 Sunday afternoon and fall quickly afterwards. QPF looks like a solid 1" on most models. Taking a 30% reduction and applying a straight 10:1 ratio still gives most areas 7-10" of snow. Perhaps ratios will play out much higher, but it's one of those aspects of a storm that you can easily get burned on. Yeah, good thing we had some wiggle room... but that is about maxed out. Not sure what the euro has for temps but the lakeshore counties should be all snow. Heaviest snows fall north of the RN/SN line so we are still in a good spot. The WTOD always make its presence known but I can't see it getting north of Mansfield to YNG line... barring any more shifts NW of course. As it stands now, it will be a paste storm which we haven't had in a long time. I'm think 10-12" in the northern most counties with a sharp decrease south of here. Where's OHWeather's forecast?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeah, good thing we had some wiggle room... but that is about maxed out. Not sure what the euro has for temps but the lakeshore counties should be all snow. Heaviest snows fall north of the RN/SN line so we are still in a good spot. The WTOD always make its presence known but I can't see it getting north of Mansfield to YNG line... barring any more shifts NW of course. As it stands now, it will be a paste storm which we haven't had in a long time. I'm think 10-12" in the northern most counties with a sharp decrease south of here. Where's OHWeather's forecast?! If you run the NAM simulated radar reflectivity, you can also see a "dry slot" trying to work it's way towards Akron. Any shift NW and that will kill snowfall totals drastically. Verbatim, the NAM is a solid hit for the northern counties of Ohio. The winds really start to crank too. I wonder if CLE will pull the trigger on a blizzard warning for lakeshore areas. And just for fun, here's the cobb output for the NAM which applies some eye candy snow ratios: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kcle.dat That has a zero percent chance of verifying, but fun to look at anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If you run the NAM simulated radar reflectivity, you can also see a "dry slot" trying to work it's way towards Akron. Any shift NW and that will kill snowfall totals drastically. Verbatim, the NAM is a solid hit for the northern counties of Ohio. The winds really start to crank too. I wonder if CLE will pull the trigger on a blizzard warning for lakeshore areas. And just for fun, here's the cobb output for the NAM which applies some eye candy snow ratios: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kcle.dat That has a zero percent chance of verifying, but fun to look at anyway. Oh yeah, I forgot we sweat the dry slot as well. We need the stop the bleeding north that's for sure. Who knows, if we stay north of the pivot perhaps that absurd 20" the NAM shows will verify. The funny thing about this storm as there is major bust potential either way... good and bad. Still like where we are but the north shifts have to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hey everyone...best of luck with the upcoming storm! I'm sort of crossing forums here as I currently live in the Washington, DC area, and we're pretty much just looking at cold rain here. However, I grew up in the Cleveland area (mostly in Shaker Hts., but also in Lake County around Wickliffe) and still like to monitor storms that affect the old homestead. Still have family in the area so I do visit at least once a year. Unfortunately, haven't had the opportunity to visit during the winter up that way in a few years, so kind of miss experiencing snow events (and lake effect) in northeast OH. At any rate, looks like this one takes a classic track for you all. I did check KCLE's latest and saw the watch is now a warning, and they're going 8-12" from what I saw in the northern-most counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Here’s my forecast… Tough call due to continued north shifts on the models bringing mixing issues and a dry slot closer to Cleveland… This storm will come in three “phases” across Ohio…the first phase will be overrunning snows late Saturday night into the middle of Sunday afternoon…the second phase will be a trowal type feature as we get on the nose of strong low to mid-level WAA ahead of the mid-level low late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening…the third will be a weak deformation zone/some lake enchantment late Sunday night into Monday morning. As for the low track, I don’t buy the track up to YNG that some models are trying to hint at. Although the models have steadily trended north for days now, I still believe there’s a cap to how for north the surface low goes. Even the super amped SREF members don’t show the trough taking on a negative tilt as it passes through Ohio, so the surface low track should be more W-E and I’d expect it to be near I-70. I currently like a GFS/Euro blend as the last couple runs of those two models have been fairly consistent with mainly cosmetic changes. The GFS is slightly north of the Euro. The overrunning snows look mainly light to moderate. There will be a fairly deep DGZ during the overrunning snows, but lift within the DGZ won’t be strong and surface temps won’t be far below freezing, so ratios may not be great during the overrunning snows. Areas north of route 30 will be on the nose of pretty good WAA at 700mb during this phase of the storm and will get a nice boost from the right-rear quadrant of a upper level jet streak, so I do expect moderate snow at times during the overrunning. I could see the overrunning snows producing 3-6” by mid Sunday afternoon mainly in the northern couple tiers of counties. The phase of the storm where northern OH could get into a trowal like feature is when the heaviest snow rates may occur, and it’s also the most uncertain part of the forecast IMO. Northern OH will be under fairly good upper support in the right-rear quad of another upper level jet stream and left-exit quad of another jet streak. Northern OH will also be on the nose of a 50 knot 850mb jet with high theta-e air within that LLJ, and Northern OH will also be on the nose of another burst of strong 700mb winds. This could support elevated convection and heavy snow rates. This phase of the storm looks to last about 6 hours late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, and snow rates of 1” per hour or heavier are possible at times. This phase could produce another 4-8” of snow in favored areas. The weak deform will mainly affect NW OH and SE MI as it looks now. The 700mb low track will be over Lake Erie which suggests north-central and NE OH could dry slot at this point. The weak deform could add a couple inches to parts of NW Ohio. Some lake enhanced snow will likely occur through Monday morning until the deeper synoptic moisture pulls out. With a NE wind going N this lake enhancement could favor Cleveland points west. All told, with models still insisting on over an inch of QPF, the long duration of the storm and a couple long opportunities for moderate to heavy snow, I can easily see how CLE gets over a foot of snow, and considered going 10-14” across all of northern OH. However, a GFS/Euro blend takes the 850mb low track right over Cleveland. As a general rule of thumb with storms that come from the west or southwest, mixing will get up to the 850mb low track, regardless of what models show. The heaviest snow is typically north of the 850mb low track. So, even though I could see how this produces a foot in Cleveland, I decided to hedge a little bit and give myself some wiggle room . I do think MFD, CAK and YNG mix at times, and the mid-level low tracks passing well north of those areas also supports the heaviest snow being north of that corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM has about 1.2" liquid at CLE and all snow. That's a healthy snowstorm, but there isn't any breathing room left. Reminds me of the trends of winter's past when everything trended NW for days including nowcasting radar returns to the NW. I'm glad I've tempered my expectations with this storm, this could easily bust into 1-3" of snow into the day tomorrow, a dry slot and some drizzle in the evening, before some wrap around snow drops another 3-4" for a total of 4-7". Here's to hoping for a slightly weaker system that's a few more miles south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 The trend is not our friend. The bleeding just doesn't stop as each run inches a hair to the north. If you extrapolate each northward trend through tomorrow we definitely dry slot and get mixing issues. We'll likely get fringed again with this system, just like last winter. Not to say we can't get decent accumulations, but this has garden variety snowstorm written all over it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 What are the odds this ends up being a whiff to the north? Unfortunately they are looking pretty good right now. The models just keep on edging north. The 21Z SREF's at CLE are down to about 9" (from about 13" at 15Z) with about half the members below 7". Not looking good at all. Just hoping we get some love from the rest of the 00Z models. At this point, I'm just hoping we can pull 6" out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Great forecast ohweather. No question we will be on the southern edge of the heaviest snows. Time to watch how things play out. Hopefully the mixing line stays south... It's going to be a very close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Unfortunately they are looking pretty good right now. The models just keep on edging north. The 21Z SREF's at CLE are down to about 9" (from about 13" at 15Z) with about half the members below 7". Not looking good at all. Just hoping we get some love from the rest of the 00Z models. At this point, I'm just hoping we can pull 6" out of this one. We've seen this happen over and over again. That's why I never got excited for this storm. Model trends were once again terrible overnight. I don't think the models have produced a stable track for two runs in a row, which should have been a telling sign for the pro mets when making forecasts. I laughed last night watching local media outlets show numbers like 15" for Cleveland. Pure hype to fuel ratings. The plus side is that the Euro last night was still a major hit for the northern counties with about a foot. The NAM has dropped down to about 4-6" for the Cleveland area, with the GFS in the 6-8" range. These totals continue to decrease every 6 hours with the latest runs. Snow has started now and light accumulations of about 0.5-1.0" have occurred. It's basically nowcast time, but pessimism rules. I'm having flashbacks to Jan 4-5 last year when Cleveland couldn't even pull off an inch from that storm with winter storm warnings for 8"+ remaining in place to the bitter end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 We've seen this happen over and over again. That's why I never got excited for this storm. Model trends were once again terrible overnight. I don't think the models have produced a stable track for two runs in a row, which should have been a telling sign for the pro mets when making forecasts. I laughed last night watching local media outlets show numbers like 15" for Cleveland. Pure hype to fuel ratings. The plus side is that the Euro last night was still a major hit for the northern counties with about a foot. The NAM has dropped down to about 4-6" for the Cleveland area, with the GFS in the 6-8" range. These totals continue to decrease every 6 hours with the latest runs. Snow has started now and light accumulations of about 0.5-1.0" have occurred. It's basically nowcast time, but pessimism rules. I'm having flashbacks to Jan 4-5 last year when Cleveland couldn't even pull off an inch from that storm with winter storm warnings for 8"+ remaining in place to the bitter end. I'm riding the euro on this one. Although any solution is plausible at this point. Just no consistency in the models. It's never easy around here when it comes to large synoptic storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Trent - I was just looking at the bufkit data and the nam has 13" for CLE, while the gfs has 9". Maybe that's old data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm riding the euro on this one. Although any solution is plausible at this point. Just no consistency in the models. It's never easy around here when it comes to large synoptic storms. We're basically riding the line between a significant snowstorm and a major miss. It's quite possible that immediate lakeshore areas could pull off a foot and areas in Summit county struggle to get 3 or 4". Looking at the forecasted temperature gradient maps throughout the storm, the temperatures fall off quickly in a matter of miles. It's quite possible that Lorain could be at 20 degrees and parts of Northern Summit are in the mid 30s during the height of the storm. That's why every little adjustment to the low pressure track will be key. Normally I'd feel confident having the Euro on my side, but considering its performance in the NE last week, it isn't that reassuring. I think the model change from last night's 0z runs to this morning's 6z runs was the biggest drop off in snowfall totals since they first started showing a storm hit for N Ohio. The NAM cut snowfall by about 40% in just one run. The GFS dipped about 20%. The other positive thing to keep in mind is potential lake enhancement as the storm passes by. None of the models caught the snowfall from the mostly frozen lake on Thursday night into Friday morning. They are also likely going to under do it for tonight into tomorrow as well. We could see the radar light up with that "green blob" as the storm is about to end and potentially salvage any missed accumulations to dry slot/mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Trent - I was just looking at the bufkit data and the nam has 13" for CLE, while the gfs has 9". Maybe that's old data? The 6z NAM had 0.60" liquid with a brief hour of sleet mixing in The 6z GFS had 0.82" liquid with a brief changeover to rain in the middle Ratios for us riding the line between snow and slop shouldn't be too impressive. Factoring in mix potential for both models, the NAM is 4-6" and the GFS is 6-8". I'm sure some outputs are showing super high snow ratios, and thus higher totals, but I'm not buying that for areas so close to the mix line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The 6z NAM had 0.60" liquid with a brief hour of sleet mixing in The 6z GFS had 0.82" liquid with a brief changeover to rain in the middle Ratios for us riding the line between snow and slop shouldn't be too impressive. Factoring in mix potential for both models, the NAM is 4-6" and the GFS is 6-8". I'm sure some outputs are showing super high snow ratios, and thus higher totals, but I'm not buying that for areas so close to the mix line. Thanks for the info. Looks like the bleeding stopped on the 12z NAM. Hopefully the GFS follows suit. Yeah, we are riding a fine line with this storm. One thing going for the lakeshore is the ice cover on the lake which tends to keep the areas near the lakeshore from mixing too much... especially for areas from CLE on west. It might be painful around here for a few hours. It's snowing nicely out there and flake size has increased. Closing in on 2 inches already. The gradient will be extreme near MBY. Hopefully we find ourselves on the good side. It would be tough watching lake erie jackpot while areas just south of the lake mix then dryslot. A blend of the euro, gfs and nam gives this area a decent storm by CLE's standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 It's snowing nicely out there and flake size has increased. Closing in on 2 inches already. The gradient will be extreme near MBY. Hopefully we find ourselves on the good side. It would be tough watching lake erie jackpot while areas just south of the lake mix then dryslot. A blend of the euro, gfs and nam gives this area a decent storm by CLE's standards. Snow outside is performing as expected, if not better. Nice big fat flakes that are accumulating quickly. Radar looks pretty good for the next few hours before the dry slot starts to encroach. Temperatures are tricky and we'll have to watch where the rain/snow line starts to set up to our south and west and how quickly it advances northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Don't have much positive to say. I think CLE still stands a good shot at seeing over 6", but the potential this thing had of over 10" won't be realized. CLE could barely stay all snow, as the NAM and GFS both show either only a small above freezing layer or keep the whole column at or below freezing at CLE...in addition, the precip could be somewhat convective this evening, which could cause enough dynamic cooling to keep locations all snow. This will definitely be a big bust inland, considering 48 hours ago a lot of outlets were worried about the lakeshore being too far north for heavy snow. I sarcastically told someone early in the week that this seemed like a storm that looks great for CLE until 24 hours out and ends up screwing us...up until yesterday I really didn't think that would happen though. Here's my "updated map", and it may still be generous. Most areas should hit the low numbers, but the high numbers may be a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Don't have much positive to say. I think CLE still stands a good shot at seeing over 6", but the potential this thing had of over 10" won't be realized. CLE could barely stay all snow, as the NAM and GFS both show either only a small above freezing layer or keep the whole column at or below freezing at CLE...in addition, the precip could be somewhat convective this evening, which could cause enough dynamic cooling to keep locations all snow. This will definitely be a big bust inland, considering 48 hours ago a lot of outlets were worried about the lakeshore being too far north for heavy snow. I sarcastically told someone early in the week that this seemed like a storm that looks great for CLE until 24 hours out and ends up screwing us...up until yesterday I really didn't think that would happen though. Here's my "updated map", and it may still be generous. Most areas should hit the low numbers, but the high numbers may be a stretch. snow 2-1 no neo final.png Looks good. I think 6" is definitely reachable for the northern parts, especially since 2-3" has already fallen. The question is how much mixing and for how many hours tonight that will result in getting totals near the higher end. When it comes to snow, I've quickly become a pessimist over the years. It's not hard after we've been burned dozens of times over the past 5 years or so with scenarios that play out just like to today, slow trends north or slow trends south. It was on Friday that the CLE AFD was still mentioning the best snows in the extreme southern part of their CWA, that band has now easily shifted over 150 miles northward. I'm glad I never bought the hype and with every run that looked golden for us I knew that would change. If 6 or 7" of snow falls, that's an awesome storm, but seeing that there'll be twice that not too far away does sting, especially after last winter where we were fringed by every storm in a similar way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Just measured 2". Snowing nicely and radar looks decent. Odd that my pc forecast is for only 1-3" today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks good. I think 6" is definitely reachable for the northern parts, especially since 2-3" has already fallen. The question is how much mixing and for how many hours tonight that will result in getting totals near the higher end. When it comes to snow, I've quickly become a pessimist over the years. It's not hard after we've been burned dozens of times over the past 5 years or so with scenarios that play out just like to today, slow trends north or slow trends south. It was on Friday that the CLE AFD was still mentioning the best snows in the extreme southern part of their CWA, that band has now easily shifted over 150 miles northward. I'm glad I never bought the hype and with every run that looked golden for us I knew that would change. If 6 or 7" of snow falls, that's an awesome storm, but seeing that there'll be twice that not too far away does sting, especially after last winter where we were fringed by every storm in a similar way. I feel like up through the winter of 2010-2011 we had more things trend in our favor than not...that was a very snowy decade in Cleveland leading up to that. Since then, even with a good seasonal total last winter, nothing has really broken our way in terms of major snowfall. So I understand being a pessimist. It's tough trying to forecast for the general public in this town. Because every met in this town probably has all of these busts burned in the back of their brain, but it would also not be good to call for a 4-8" storm and have a foot fall or something along those lines. The one red flag that had me kind of concerned was the models never actually stopped inching north. I thought yesterday morning when all models were zeroing in 24 hours out we'd be good and the trend would stop, but it didn't. I still lean optimistic, and eventually one will break our way, but for now we'll still have to wait for the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 At least the first phase of this storm has performed as well if not better than expected. I'm at about 5" now with the dry slot right on my doorstep. Radar seems to be filling in some to my southwest so maybe there won't be much of a break before the next wave in Indiana moves in. I think the northernmost row of counties might still be able to reach double digits - IF we can stay all snow. I think we will but it's going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Flake size has increased this past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 1" per hour rates at CLE for the last two hours. Looks like 3" or so so far here. Anyone in the lower two zones on my map is already on the low end of the expected totals and lakeshore areas should have little trouble getting there. I'll feel like a jackass if my first map performs better than my "revised" one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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