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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


Trent
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The NAM being too amped on the synoptic snow didn’t help, but also isn’t very surprising, which takes away the potential for a very nice event.  
 

I still think 4-7” is doable for much of the higher terrain in eastern Cuyahoga County and Geauga County into NW PA...the synoptic snow on its own likely produces 1-2” through mid morning tomorrow, with several hours of light to perhaps moderate lake enhanced snow late morning through mid afternoon, with a Lake Huron connection swinging west to east across the Cleveland area and Snowbelt during that window.  I think that period drops another 1-2, locally 3” from mid morning through mid afternoon, focused on the higher terrain.  Lake effect conditions are fair Friday evening and night...although instability isn’t extreme and EL heights are 8-9k feet which is a bit modest, steep lapse rates and moisture through the snow growth zone, weak shear, and increasing convergence near the lakeshore may keep moderate bands going through the night.  They will gradually move and overall shift north by Saturday morning, but I could see Friday evening and night dropping another 1 to locally 4” in the primary Snowbelt.  It does add up to several inches in the higher terrain, mainly owing to the duration and increasing ratios.  Not a great storm, but it will have to suffice this winter... 

E917BE71-E420-483F-8BFD-DB35843A2CE5.jpeg.be56ff54b3b36e2b0dc5157bfbdfb433.jpeg

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4 hours ago, OHweather said:

The NAM being too amped on the synoptic snow didn’t help, but also isn’t very surprising, which takes away the potential for a very nice event.  
 

I still think 4-7” is doable for much of the higher terrain in eastern Cuyahoga County and Geauga County into NW PA...the synoptic snow on its own likely produces 1-2” through mid morning tomorrow, with several hours of light to perhaps moderate lake enhanced snow late morning through mid afternoon, with a Lake Huron connection swinging west to east across the Cleveland area and Snowbelt during that window.  I think that period drops another 1-2, locally 3” from mid morning through mid afternoon, focused on the higher terrain.  Lake effect conditions are fair Friday evening and night...although instability isn’t extreme and EL heights are 8-9k feet which is a bit modest, steep lapse rates and moisture through the snow growth zone, weak shear, and increasing convergence near the lakeshore may keep moderate bands going through the night.  They will gradually move and overall shift north by Saturday morning, but I could see Friday evening and night dropping another 1 to locally 4” in the primary Snowbelt.  It does add up to several inches in the higher terrain, mainly owing to the duration and increasing ratios.  Not a great storm, but it will have to suffice this winter... 

E917BE71-E420-483F-8BFD-DB35843A2CE5.jpeg.be56ff54b3b36e2b0dc5157bfbdfb433.jpeg

Thanks Ohweather, seems reasonable.   Cle going with 4-6".   Getting sleet currently.  I'll be glad when we finally switch to snow.  

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1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Looks like we're getting a Huron fetch now.  Really dumping out there. 

Yep. Moisture from Huron is definitely helping. The radar is looking good with the main band on the west side and another forming in eastern Cuyahoga through western Geauga. 

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Definitely seems like a nice little event through the day today.  I'm pretty intrigued by what happens through the evening and into the overnight, conditions are nearly ideal for very efficient snow growth and as the sun sets it will accumulate even better than it already is, with ratios probably exceeding 20:1 tonight.  With a vort max over southern lower MI moving east across Lake Erie and extreme NE OH/NW PA this evening into tonight and the flow backing, increasing the fetch and also increasing convergence over the Snowbelt, I still think a few more inches could be squeezed out where bands are most persistent from the Cleveland area points east...with possibly as much as 6" in NW PA.  Soundings remain OK into Saturday, so it may snow in northern Erie County into the morning before lifting out over the lake or into extreme SW NY.

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2 hours ago, dta1984 said:

I've got 6.5" on the deck.  Bottom layer is a little bit of sleet.  Been a fun storm so far!  Looks like a few more inches tonight.

Definitely one of the snowiest days we’ve had this winter. Measured about the same. Winds seems to be backing now so we may get another few hours of snow before it pushes off to the northeast.

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Cautious optimism for a decent snow event. Biggest concern is how far north the WTOD gets. It usually has no problem push up to the Rt. 30 corridor. The far northern tier of counties look pretty good at this point, but given the way this winter has gone anything is possible. 

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure moves northeast up the Ohio River Valley to western PA Wednesday night. Expect precipitation to continue through the night.
Difficult portion of the forecast is the temperature profile across the region. Every model has the rain/snow/mixed precipitation line
in slightly different locations through Wednesday night causing much uncertainty to accumulations of snow and ice. Just know that the
Thursday morning commute will be impacted with a good bet that portions of the region will be under a winter weather advisory.
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1 hour ago, dta1984 said:

Had 3.25" overnight.  There were some heavy returns over the area yesterday evening, but the ratios weren't too efficient.  Hopefully add several more inches with the artic front and lake effect later today. 

Same amount here.... although there was definitely some compaction. When I looked at the radar before going to bed I figured there would be more. Should add another 2-4" today/tonight though.

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This is almost like a "normal" stretch of snow for you guys these last couple of weeks, even if there hasn't been a huge storm to catch you up on your seasonal totals.  Tonight isn't a great setup, but it'll snow decently when the front goes through this evening with some lake effect tonight...I agree with 2-4" probably for most of the snowbelt and even Cleveland area. 

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2 hours ago, OHweather said:

This is almost like a "normal" stretch of snow for you guys these last couple of weeks, even if there hasn't been a huge storm to catch you up on your seasonal totals.  Tonight isn't a great setup, but it'll snow decently when the front goes through this evening with some lake effect tonight...I agree with 2-4" probably for most of the snowbelt and even Cleveland area. 

Yeah it has been an ok stretch. The one thing that stands out is that just about every snow has been wet... which has made for nice scenery. 2-4" seems reasonable tonight. Its mid-Feb and this is really the first arctic front of the dwindling winter season. 

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2 hours ago, vpbob21 said:

Line of snow came through and was really lame.  Probably 5 minutes or so of 1 mile visibility snow.  I was hoping for a quick 1/2 - 1", but not even close.  Hope it does better for you guys out east.

Same here, arctic front was unimpressive.  The snow even had some sleet mixed in.

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2 minutes ago, NEOH said:

What a weekend with the sunshine and mild temps. At this point of the season I'm ready to turn the page to Spring. The longer days are great. Not looking forward to a couple of days of rain. Whatever snow we get on the backside will not be pretty with the wet ground. 

Seems like a decent window for lake effect Thurs-sat.  

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Definitely an interesting few days coming up (if you want snow still)

The wrap around/lake enhanced snow Wednesday night looks like a general 1-3" for the Cleveland area, but could see 2-4 or 3-6" in the higher terrain due to lake enhancement.  NW OH likely sees heavier synoptic snow as it looks.

There will be off an on lake effect Thursday afternoon through Sunday morning...the flow through Friday may be pretty westerly or even WSW at times, but Friday night into the weekend we will see a more WNW or even NW flow.  Instability looks sufficient with a lot of moisture, so there should be enough additional lake effect for advisories and maybe even some warnings late Thursday into the weekend...though as always we'll need to watch the wind direction.

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11 hours ago, OHweather said:

Definitely an interesting few days coming up (if you want snow still)

The wrap around/lake enhanced snow Wednesday night looks like a general 1-3" for the Cleveland area, but could see 2-4 or 3-6" in the higher terrain due to lake enhancement.  NW OH likely sees heavier synoptic snow as it looks.

There will be off an on lake effect Thursday afternoon through Sunday morning...the flow through Friday may be pretty westerly or even WSW at times, but Friday night into the weekend we will see a more WNW or even NW flow.  Instability looks sufficient with a lot of moisture, so there should be enough additional lake effect for advisories and maybe even some warnings late Thursday into the weekend...though as always we'll need to watch the wind direction.

While I'm ready for Spring I wouldn't complain about a significant event. Not looking for a couple of sloppy inches at this point of the season. The way this storm is trending the western burbs of CLE may actually see a decent synoptic snowfall... with a northeast wind off the cold lake the lakeshore areas could see a quick changeover. 

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11 minutes ago, NEOH said:

While I'm ready for Spring I wouldn't complain about a significant event. Not looking for a couple of sloppy inches at this point of the season. The way this storm is trending the western burbs of CLE may actually see a decent synoptic snowfall... with a northeast wind off the cold lake the lakeshore areas could see a quick changeover. 

Ya I'm definitely more interested in the lake effect potential. 

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