Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[NEOH]

2 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Ya there have certainly been some clunkers.  My 6 yr average is 94", and was over 100" until last winter.  This winter will probably bring that down again as well.   The lake effect may be saving us vs the airport that shows a more drastic decline. 

We would be just as bad as CLE without lake effect. Imagine how different CLE's snowfall would look if the airport was located on the east side. 

[dta1984]

23 minutes ago, NEOH said:

We would just as bad as CLE without lake effect. Imagine how different CLE's snowfall would look if the airport was located on the east side. 

Ya that's true, no "may" about it.  

[NEOH]

CLE's temp departure thru 1/9 is +9.3. This will likely go up with the warmth over the next couple of days. We are still ahead of last year with snowfall by an inch (wow last winter was awful as well). We should chip away at that temp departure later in the month provided the long range pans out. Enjoy the warmth and flooding rains over the weekend .

[NEOH]

On 1/10/2020 at 9:44 AM, NEOH said:

CLE's temp departure thru 1/9 is +9.3. This will likely go up with the warmth over the next couple of days. We are still ahead of last year with snowfall by an inch (wow last winter was awful as well). We should chip away at that temp departure later in the month provided the long range pans out. Enjoy the warmth and flooding rains over the weekend .

CLE's temp departure for the month is up to +12.8. While it felt nice this past weather it was just odd to be outside in short sleeves in January. Hopefully we can manage a few inches of snow this coming weekend. 

[dta1984]

On 1/13/2020 at 11:43 AM, NEOH said:

CLE's temp departure for the month is up to +12.8. While it felt nice this past weather it was just odd to be outside in short sleeves in January. Hopefully we can manage a few inches of snow this coming weekend. 

Ya, flat out ugly for almost mid winter.  The only bright spot is an ice free lake Erie. 

Looks like a few inches tomorrow, possibly a lake Huron band a little east of here.  Sun- early next week may be a NW flow lake effect?

[NEOH]

On 1/15/2020 at 4:22 PM, dta1984 said:

Ya, flat out ugly for almost mid winter.  The only bright spot is an ice free lake Erie. 

Looks like a few inches tomorrow, possibly a lake Huron band a little east of here.  Sun- early next week may be a NW flow lake effect?

Looks like an inch or two of of LES tonight. Then maybe a couple of inches with the storm -- WAA always over-performs around here so the snowfall could certainly flip to mix/rain earlier than forecast. The LES Sunday thru Wednesday looks good from a wind direction standpoint. 

[NEOH]

Picked up  4.5” overnight. Looks like another hour or 2 of snow before we mix. Definitely more than I expected. 

[dta1984]

2 hours ago, NEOH said:

Picked up  4.5” overnight. Looks like another hour or 2 of snow before we mix. Definitely more than I expected. 

Just measured 5" with steady freezing rain now.  Should be a fun few days. 

[dta1984]

Lake effect hasn't really been able to get into geauga county.  Had some light snow this morning, but not adding up to much.  Curious what happens when the winds shift to the north later.  

[dta1984]

Measured a very fluffy 2.5".   Seems to match up with other geauga county spotters.  Looks like lake effect is trying to sink south a little. 

[OHweather]

The secondary Snowbelt has gotten crushed this evening...CLE has been reporting 1”/hour snow rates the last two hours with ratios of 50:1 if the liquid catch is accurate! 

KCLE 200451Z 24007KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV011 M07/M09 A3034 RMK AO2 SLP288 SNINCR 1/4 P0002 T10671089 400001089

[dta1984]

5" of fluff this morning.  Huron connection looks like it delivered for a wide area. Looks like it's going to swing back through here shortly.  Curious what the airport comes in at. 

[NEOH]

This has definitely been a strange LES event. The trough that was supposed to push through early yesterday afternoon took until the late evening to move south so areas near the lakeshore picked-up the heaviest snowfall. Picked up around 5" last night on top of what fell yesterday. Despite the low inversion the flake size is actually large. The moisture from lake huron definitely helps. Seems like there were isolated pockets of heavier snowfall... more so than usual with lake effect. The winds are fairly light so we'll probably see the heavier snows set-up closer to the lakeshore today.  Finally looks like Winter with a nice snow pack in place. 

[dta1984]

Huron band has been hung up along the 271 corridor for a while. We'll see what happens once it drifts back east. 

[NEOH]

43 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Huron band has been hung up along the 271 corridor for a while. We'll see what happens once it drifts back east. 

That area has been in the band quite awhile... I'm sure the fluff is adding up. Starting to snow lightly again in Chagrin. 

[CoraopolisWx]

Came across this doing some research. Thought you folks might like it.

https://books.google.com/books?id=QANPLARGXFMC&pg=PA69&lpg=PA69&dq=leap+lear+snow+storm+1984&source=bl&ots=34kFJ2Gor2&sig=ACfU3U3I88d2s1VA4biS8COoCJGlLgyy6A&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj-2ZDCwKHnAhVRlnIEHQ-6DgkQ6AEwAHoECAwQAQ#v=onepage&q=leap lear snow storm 1984&f=false

[HighTechEE]

1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Came across this doing some research. Thought you folks might like it.

https://books.google.com/books?id=QANPLARGXFMC&pg=PA69&lpg=PA69&dq=leap+lear+snow+storm+1984&source=bl&ots=34kFJ2Gor2&sig=ACfU3U3I88d2s1VA4biS8COoCJGlLgyy6A&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj-2ZDCwKHnAhVRlnIEHQ-6DgkQ6AEwAHoECAwQAQ#v=onepage&q=leap lear snow storm 1984&f=false

Nice find,  I was a junior at Ohio University during that Feb'84 storm commuting 12 miles, that afternoon the snow started w/temps in the mid 30s and it still pilled up at a rate of 2"/hr on the roads!  For the April '87 storm I had moved to Dayton after I graduated OU and we got like 4-5" here, but my brother still lived in NW Athens county and they got 18" in 24hrs with 12hrs of thundersnow!

[dta1984]

12 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Came across this doing some research. Thought you folks might like it.

https://books.google.com/books?id=QANPLARGXFMC&pg=PA69&lpg=PA69&dq=leap+lear+snow+storm+1984&source=bl&ots=34kFJ2Gor2&sig=ACfU3U3I88d2s1VA4biS8COoCJGlLgyy6A&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj-2ZDCwKHnAhVRlnIEHQ-6DgkQ6AEwAHoECAwQAQ#v=onepage&q=leap lear snow storm 1984&f=false

Great find, thanks!!  Always fun to read more on the historical storms. 

Picked up 1.25" Sat evening through this morning and just cleared another 1.5" from this evening. Very low ratio snow.

[NEOH]

22 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Came across this doing some research. Thought you folks might like it.

https://books.google.com/books?id=QANPLARGXFMC&pg=PA69&lpg=PA69&dq=leap+lear+snow+storm+1984&source=bl&ots=34kFJ2Gor2&sig=ACfU3U3I88d2s1VA4biS8COoCJGlLgyy6A&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj-2ZDCwKHnAhVRlnIEHQ-6DgkQ6AEwAHoECAwQAQ#v=onepage&q=leap lear snow storm 1984&f=false

Thanks for sharing. Good stuff. Hard to believe that snowstorms actually happened in Ohio

[NEOH]

As of 1/30 CLE has a +8.6 temp departure for January, and the snowfall decifit is up to 18". Remarkably the past 4 days may be the longest stretch I've had this winter with snow cover. The paste that fell on Sunday and Monday is still on the ground and coating the trees. While the snow isn't deep it has looked like Winter at least. 

[dta1984]

2 hours ago, NEOH said:

As of 1/30 CLE has a +8.6 temp departure for January, and the snowfall decifit is up to 18". Remarkably the past 4 days may be the longest stretch I've had this winter with snow cover. The paste that fell on Sunday and Monday is still on the ground and coating the trees. While the snow isn't deep it has looked like Winter at least. 

Ya it's definitely been a nice stretch of snow cover, especially with the trees pasted.  I recorded a little over 3" since Sunday, and most of it is still on the ground. 

[RogueWaves]

13th day of snow cover up my way. Not only a record for this lame winter, but a pleasant shock as well after all the rain and days above freezing here. 

[NEOH]

2 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

13th day of snow cover up my way. Not only a record for this lame winter, but a pleasant shock as well after all the rain and days above freezing here. 

That's a long stretch of snow cover for this Winter. We are used to LES fluff around here which goes away quickly... this paste has staying power. The ground beneath isn't even frozen. 

[dta1984]

Had 2" on the deck this morning.  Should finally lose our snow by later today or tomorrow.   Looks like next snow chance is mid-late week.

[NEOH]

Just now, dta1984 said:

Had 2" on the deck this morning.  Should finally lose our snow by later today or tomorrow.   Looks like next snow chance is mid-late week.

I flew out of CLE earlier this morning. Night and day difference between the eastside and westside. There was barely a trace of snow when I got to the airport, while it looked like Winter in our area. 

[NEOH]

Great disco from CLE 

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
By Thursday, a deep and elongated upper-level trough moves east across the Great Plains, producing strong southerly flow with a
Gulf of Mexico connection. This will result in a moisture-rich low pressure system developing over the lower Mississippi Valley
Wednesday night and steadily deepening as it progresses northeast across the Tennessee/Ohio Valley on Thursday and to
the New England coast by Friday or Saturday, depending on which model you look at. Given the high moisture content, strong
synoptic-scale forcing, and favorable surface low track southeast of our forecast area (something that could certainly
change though), this has the potential to be our best snow-producer of the winter for areas outside of the snowbelt, an
achievement that won`t be very difficult due to the lackluster winter so far. Snow and ice will both be on the table for
Wednesday night through early Friday depending on the surface temperatures and vertical temperature. It`s important to note
that while there is potential for a significant winter storm to impact the region, there is still a lot of uncertainty. Model
guidance are still producing widely-varying low pressure tracks which could greatly alter the forecast. For now, it will be
important to monitor the forecast for this time period and planahead if you have travel plans.

[OHweather]

Thursday night into Friday could be interesting for you guys...models trending a little stronger with the low pulling away to the east and throwing back some synoptic snow Thursday night into Friday morning, with lake enhanced snow continuing through the day Friday and some traditional lake effect Friday night.  Assuming the synoptic snow can produce even 1-3 or 2-4", the added lake help could push widespread 6"+ totals in the higher terrain of the primary and secondary belts...could even see a run at double digits if the NAM is onto something with a solid several inches of synoptic snow.

[NEOH]

10 hours ago, OHweather said:

Thursday night into Friday could be interesting for you guys...models trending a little stronger with the low pulling away to the east and throwing back some synoptic snow Thursday night into Friday morning, with lake enhanced snow continuing through the day Friday and some traditional lake effect Friday night.  Assuming the synoptic snow can produce even 1-3 or 2-4", the added lake help could push widespread 6"+ totals in the higher terrain of the primary and secondary belts...could even see a run at double digits if the NAM is onto something with a solid several inches of synoptic snow.

It was all sleet and freezing rain last night... no snow at all. It will be interesting to see what happens tonight/Friday. A low tracking through WV into PA is usually a great track for Ohio. The models are all over the place with snowfall... no agreement at all. I'd be more optimistic but given the way this season has gone my expectations are low. 

[dta1984]

Seems like most morning guidance backed away from the big storm idea.  Still should see 4" or so with lake enhanced and le.

[NEOH]

3 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Seems like most morning guidance backed away from the big storm idea.  Still should see 4" or so with lake enhanced and le.

These messy set-ups typically deliver poor results. That said, 2-4" seems reasonable but guidance has been backing down as you mentioned. I'm not putting to much stock in any particular model solution at this point though.