dta1984 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 We will have to hope the cracks help us out...but I won't count on it. Hopefully it will surprise us. Sunday event has toned down a little, but we look to still be in it. Huge flakes in Solon also. Looks like a thunderstorm on radar lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Thanks for the ice report. Been too many clouds lately to get a good satellite shot. If the lake were unfrozen this would be a good 4-8" event with a couple of troughs moving through tonight. As is I'd generally expect about 1-3", maybe a local 4" amount in northern Geauga. Good moisture and decent inversions with a NW wind and high snow ratios will probably be enough to allow for light accumulations tonight. Even though there isn't much open water, any moisture picked up plus the synoptic moisture and perhaps some upstream lake moisture should combine with frictional convergence as the wind hits the land and higher terrain and ring out light snow. Sunday still looks interesting. Hopefully we can squeeze out 2-4". It is actually dumping mostly snow and sleet here. Figured we would see a quick flip to rain... but the cold air is hanging tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I see freezing rain/sleet at CAK and freezing rain at AKR, and spotter reports of freezing rain from Canton/Akron to Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 At home for lunch ...all snow here. Car said 31 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 At home for lunch ...all snow here. Car said 31 degrees. Huge parachutes coming down. Won't last long but a nice surprise as we always have a hard time holding on to cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Although it's possible the models trend back weaker for the Sunday-Sunday night storm, it's highly unlikely IMO. The polar vortex over Hudson Bay will cause the system to be more of a bowling ball (W-E mover) than a cutter, so I think northern OH probably stays all snow. Want to look at the 12z Friday models before making a call but I don't think a widespread 6-10" or so is a bad starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well, I busted on my call of 3-5" being to high. A bust I'll gladly take. Not sure how much we got last night but 4-5" just eyeballing. Still snowing hard. Great flake size so it's piling up quickly. Definite terrain enhancement by the radar representation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nice little band of snow last night with the lake effect/enhanced flare up overnight. Looks like the traditional lake belts with some upslope probably had some nice accumulations considering the frozen lake. As for Sunday, hard to believe that the Euro, NAM, and GFS all jackpot northern Ohio with snow starting within 48 hours. It's been a LONG time since we've had one of these types of bowling ball snow set ups for these parts. Don't want to jinx it, but these tend to have less mixing worries for lakeshore counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wow! I took 3 measurements and got between 7.5 - 8". Still snowing hard. NeOH what do you have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Awesome! The Chardon cam still shows heavy snow even though the returns have weakened some since earlier this morning. It's still probably snowing 1" per hour in Chardon. I figured there'd be some enhancement, but if you got 8" last night that's a lot more than I'd ever envision off of a frozen Lake Erie with a NW wind. Very impressive. Imagine amounts if the lake was open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'll try to get some more measurements later to help verify. There's a little less here in Solon, and its definitely lightened up here. Webcam at home shows it still ripping. Nice surprise and appetizer for Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wow! I took 3 measurements and got between 7.5 - 8". Still snowing hard. NeOH what do you have? Took quite a few measurements around 7:30 and was in the 7-8" range as well. Snow has lightened up considerably now. Still coming down though. Nice snowpack out there. If the weekend storm can deliver, we'll have one of the deepest snowpacks in quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Anyone see the blurb in the AFD about the best snows on Sunday being south of the US 30 corridor? With the way the models have flipped flopped all winter there's no way you can pin down an exact snowfall swath 50 hours out. At least we have some breathing room on either side. What are the odds this ends up being a whiff to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Anyone see the blurb in the AFD about the best snows on Sunday being south of the US 30 corridor? With the way the models have flipped flopped all winter there's no way you can pin down an exact snowfall swath 50 hours out. At least we have some breathing room on either side. What are the odds this ends up being a whiff to the north? Yeah, I saw that as well. CLE gets too caught up with one model run. Given model performance this year you would think they wouldn't get so specific this far out. As OHWeather mentioned, I think there's a cap on how far north this can move with the vortex over hudson bay. I like where we sit at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Appears that small band hanging out in geauga county has a Huron connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 OHweather- do you have Euro qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 SUN 00Z 01-FEB -4.4 -6.3 1024 69 21 0.00 552 533 SUN 06Z 01-FEB -3.0 -6.2 1022 73 88 0.00 550 533 SUN 12Z 01-FEB -2.9 -6.5 1021 96 98 0.09 547 531 SUN 18Z 01-FEB -2.0 -6.3 1018 92 97 0.15 545 530 MON 00Z 02-FEB -5.1 -6.2 1014 92 100 0.24 541 530 MON 06Z 02-FEB -8.4 -7.3 1010 87 100 0.26 534 526 MON 12Z 02-FEB -10.6 -11.8 1015 80 98 0.15 529 517 MON 18Z 02-FEB -11.6 -14.9 1023 66 22 0.02 531 513 0.91" for CLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 I will remain on the cautious side. How many times over the past few winters have we been tortured with model runs 48 hours out promising the largest synoptic storm in 5 years only to wind up with another run of the mill 4-6" storm? The drill goes as follows, storm pops up several days out and looks promising. Then in the 48-60 hour range the models have their most juiced up runs. The NWS and media start to hype up totals and watches go out. The next few runs drop QPF by 0.05" to 0.10", not noticeable until several runs stack up. By the start of the storm QPF is in the 0.60" range and we hope that ratios will help get totals close to 10". In the end the storm ends up being drier and less intense, ratios don't pan out and the storm total is 4-7" for most folks. I'm setting my expectations for 5" with this storm. Call me a pessimist but the vast majority of "significant" storms that are modeled like this a few days out never pan out as significant as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I will remain on the cautious side. How many times over the past few winters have we been tortured with model runs 48 hours out promising the largest synoptic storm in 5 years only to wind up with another run of the mill 4-6" storm? The drill goes as follows, storm pops up several days out and looks promising. Then in the 48-60 hour range the models have their most juiced up runs. The NWS and media start to hype up totals and watches go out. The next few runs drop QPF by 0.05" to 0.10", not noticeable until several runs stack up. By the start of the storm QPF is in the 0.60" range and we hope that ratios will help get totals close to 10". In the end the storm ends up being drier and less intense, ratios don't pan out and the storm total is 4-7" for most folks. I'm setting my expectations for 5" with this storm. Call me a pessimist but the vast majority of "significant" storms that are modeled like this a few days out never pan out as significant as modeled. Cleveland sports fans and snow weenie's often suffer the same fate. While I feel pretty good about this storm given the set-up, I'll curb my enthusiasm until tonights model runs. I believe all of the players will be fully sampled at that point. Perhaps they have been already. Its not often we find ourselves with a little wiggle room on either side so that's a good thing. Not sure a drier solution verifies unless the storm heads further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 SUN 00Z 01-FEB -4.4 -6.3 1024 69 21 0.00 552 533 SUN 06Z 01-FEB -3.0 -6.2 1022 73 88 0.00 550 533 SUN 12Z 01-FEB -2.9 -6.5 1021 96 98 0.09 547 531 SUN 18Z 01-FEB -2.0 -6.3 1018 92 97 0.15 545 530 MON 00Z 02-FEB -5.1 -6.2 1014 92 100 0.24 541 530 MON 06Z 02-FEB -8.4 -7.3 1010 87 100 0.26 534 526 MON 12Z 02-FEB -10.6 -11.8 1015 80 98 0.15 529 517 MON 18Z 02-FEB -11.6 -14.9 1023 66 22 0.02 531 513 0.91" for CLE Thanks for the info. You coming home this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Thanks for the info. You coming home this weekend?Driving up shortly...although ill probably try to get out Sunday before the heavier stuff hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Watch issued by CLE - If there was more open water to work with this storm would be a great candidate for lake enhancement with NE'erly wind turning Northerly. WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 8 INCHES IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND 8 TO 10 INCHES ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.* SNOW...SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK.* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL FROM MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Driving up shortly...although ill probably try to get out Sunday before the heavier stuff hits. Cool. C'mon, doesn't a white knuckle drive through the hills sound fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I will remain on the cautious side. How many times over the past few winters have we been tortured with model runs 48 hours out promising the largest synoptic storm in 5 years only to wind up with another run of the mill 4-6" storm? The drill goes as follows, storm pops up several days out and looks promising. Then in the 48-60 hour range the models have their most juiced up runs. The NWS and media start to hype up totals and watches go out. The next few runs drop QPF by 0.05" to 0.10", not noticeable until several runs stack up. By the start of the storm QPF is in the 0.60" range and we hope that ratios will help get totals close to 10". In the end the storm ends up being drier and less intense, ratios don't pan out and the storm total is 4-7" for most folks. I'm setting my expectations for 5" with this storm. Call me a pessimist but the vast majority of "significant" storms that are modeled like this a few days out never pan out as significant as modeled. I agree with setting expectations low. Its hard to not get excited though. When is the last significant synoptic event we've had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 SREF plumes have a tight clustering of 6-12". If some lake erie moisture gets thrown in it could boost totals near the shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I like the 6-10" prediction with maybe a little leeway for higher totals. Either way double digit snowfalls in the wide open region of NW Ohio will equal the area being crippled for a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAIDEsNow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Got 4.5" yesterday into the night and 7.6" overnight thru very late this morning - a total of 12.1" in about 24 hours from this clipper / lake enhanced / lake effect snow combo. Very pleasantly surprised. Have about 18 or 19" on the ground. From CLE Watch, seems MBY will get substantially more from this little hybrid system than the upcoming storm. We shall see. Hope you all get appreciable amounts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 The one positive to this storm compared to some of the past season's 8-12" snowstorm busts is that this is long duration light snows. Previous busted forecasts had relied on a window of 1-2" per hour rates for 4-6 hours, which is very difficult. If we can get 0.3"-0.6" per hour snows strung out over 15 hours, I can see us getting 8" or so across a widespread area. The model means still look great for us, we can afford some wobble north or south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Since I measured early this morning, there has been an additional 2.25". I'm going to go with the lower end I measured this morning for a total of 9.75". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 SREF continues to improve. 10" mean last run. We'll see what the models do overnight. Euro has been steady. Seems like we are in a good spot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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