Floydbuster Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Down by Akron our estimates are usually a little overestimated so I will expect more in the range of 2 to 3 inches down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/2/2025 at 3:17 PM, dta1984 said: Ya seemed like the bands wanted to hug the lake shore. Hoping for a better next few days. What are your thoughts on the Mon storm? Any chance we can get it this far north, as it seems some models were starting to edge it north last night. Should still trigger some lake effect as it passes I would think.... pending the lake ice coverage.. Expand We still are on the outside looking in for heavier snow, but there's at least half decent potential for lighter snow up here. Would like to see any model other than the GFS show a more northerly solution to get excited. There could be interesting LES potential around Wednesday next week. Ice won't be prohibitive by that point, but will be starting to expand, especially across the western basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 7:20 AM, OHweather said: We still are on the outside looking in for heavier snow, but there's at least half decent potential for lighter snow up here. Would like to see any model other than the GFS show a more northerly solution to get excited. There could be interesting LES potential around Wednesday next week. Ice won't be prohibitive by that point, but will be starting to expand, especially across the western basin. Expand The local Cleveland networks show different predicted totals. Chardon could get up to 8 inches while Akron could get up to 2 inches over the entire weekend. That makes for a huge difference in impact for regular non weather folks depending on where they are located who always expect a massive snow event. I have a feeling this one could be very localized and dependent on where the individual bands set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Well, is our LES storm going to deliver or will it be another Ashtabula/Erie special? Bands appear to be parallel to the lakeshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 12:14 PM, LakeEffectOH said: Well, is our LES storm going to deliver or will it be another Ashtabula/Erie special? Bands appear to be parallel to the lakeshore. Expand That will be moving inland once the shortwave passes and winds shift to the WNW. Winds are still SW'erly at this point. Check out the shortwave over central MI - https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-MI-13-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data That should provide additional lift and increased snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 7:56 AM, Floydbuster said: The local Cleveland networks show different predicted totals. Chardon could get up to 8 inches while Akron could get up to 2 inches over the entire weekend. That makes for a huge difference in impact for regular non weather folks depending on where they are located who always expect a massive snow event. I have a feeling this one could be very localized and dependent on where the individual bands set up. Expand Yes communicating that local variability to the public is always a challenge because people do tend to gravitate towards the highest number they see. Totals will definitely vary based on where bands setup, but I think most of the area will get a good amount of snow. There’s a decent amount of synoptic support through this evening and then a decently prolonged period of lake effect tonight and tomorrow. On 1/3/2025 at 12:14 PM, LakeEffectOH said: Well, is our LES storm going to deliver or will it be another Ashtabula/Erie special? Bands appear to be parallel to the lakeshore. Expand We should be good, can see the band starting to push south over western Lake Erie as the wind shifts. The vort max NEOH pointed out will help force bands onshore and also will add a good amount of synoptic support. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Whiteout conditions right now with the heavy squalls. Nice way to start the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Picked up about 1.5" with the overnight and this morning's snow. The line of snow showers that came through around 10 AM was very impressive, even better than the line that gave us the snow squall warning a few weeks ago. Visibility at peak was probably 1/8 mile and we got 1" in maybe 15 minutes. Looks like the Sunday night/Monday system has gone south on us (literally). Never really had great expectations for this but was hoping we could score a 1-3"/2-4" type event out of it. Even that looks overly optimistic at this point. Hopefully we get more chances later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 That squall was intense when it came through Macedonia. Brief near zero visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 1:14 PM, NEOH said: That will be moving inland once the shortwave passes and winds shift to the WNW. Winds are still SW'erly at this point. Check out the shortwave over central MI - https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-MI-13-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data That should provide additional lift and increased snowfall. Expand Heavy snow here! I guess my inner reminded me of how I missed epic LES snowfall by 10 so miles, not to mention several big ticket LES vents over the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 1:43 PM, OHweather said: Yes communicating that local variability to the public is always a challenge because people do tend to gravitate towards the highest number they see. Totals will definitely vary based on where bands setup, but I think most of the area will get a good amount of snow. There’s a decent amount of synoptic support through this evening and then a decently prolonged period of lake effect tonight and tomorrow. We should be good, can see the band starting to push south over western Lake Erie as the wind shifts. The vort max NEOH pointed out will help force bands onshore and also will add a good amount of synoptic support. Expand Yes! Thanks! Snowing like crazy out now. Just had a bout of pessimism, especially after being missed by the severe LES of early December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 5:40 PM, LakeEffectOH said: Yes! Thanks! Snowing like crazy out now. Just had a bout of pessimism, especially after being missed by the severe LES of early December Expand Folks in this approximate circle have been promised a fair bit of snow that they haven’t seen with a couple of the LES events this season, so I get it lol. Luckily this is not the same type of setup as those ones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Picked up 4.4" of snow already. It was just dumping earlier. Snow starting to pick back up... and the heavy snow over the lake looks to push south directly into the area circled by OHWeather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 6:21 PM, NEOH said: Picked up 4.4" of snow already. It was just dumping earlier. Snow starting to pick back up... and the heavy snow over the lake looks to push south directly into the area circled by OHWeather. Expand 4-5” is about what we’ve picked up here in Chesterland so far today. Wind is picking up too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 6:46 PM, LakeEffectOH said: 4-5” is about what we’ve picked up here in Chesterland so far today. Wind is picking up too! Expand Nice. Its always good to get off to a fast start. We'll see what the rest of the day/nights brings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 On 1/3/2025 at 6:50 PM, NEOH said: Nice. Its always good to get off to a fast start. We'll see what the rest of the day/nights brings. Expand And tonight-tomorrow as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6.75" here so far, a really good start and on forecast. We had some very intense rates later in the morning, and then steady-heavy snow most of the afternoon. Radar looks thin now, hopefully it fires back up later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I am surprised at the intensity of some of these snow bands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The snow squalls were very impressive today. It got noticeably dark as they moved in, visibility dropped to no better than 500 feet at times, and some graupel even mixed in at times. I had 0.4" last night into early this morning, then another 5.4" during the day today. Lake effect bands trying to align now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Was in and out of a better band all night. 5.1” new, 10.9” storm total. Band has settled south of me but should tack on at least a bit more today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3" new here overnight, 9.75" running total. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 2:52 PM, dta1984 said: 3" new here overnight, 9.75" running total. Expand Same amount overnight as well - 10.5 total. Its a perfect wind direction to maximize the fetch from the western basin. Surprised there hasn't been a primary band on the eastside. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 2:56 PM, NEOH said: Same amount overnight as well - 10.5 total. Its a perfect wind direction to maximize the fetch from the western basin. Surprised there hasn't been a primary band on the eastside. Expand Some short rangers still show 3-6", have to see if we can get a band to organize. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 2:56 PM, NEOH said: Same amount overnight as well - 10.5 total. Its a perfect wind direction to maximize the fetch from the western basin. Surprised there hasn't been a primary band on the eastside. Expand The flow being closer to 300 degrees over the lake might be just a bit too far northwesterly for your area to jackpot, but I think the bigger issue was a more dominant to Lake Michigan running along the western shoreline towards like Medina County for a good period of time late yesterday into this morning, forcing the more organized band down there. As the flow backs and as that Lake Michigan connection decreases your area should have a better chance to get under whatever banding is out there. Activity won't be as intense as it was yesterday into last night, but a few fluffy inches are still on the table wherever any bands can setup through this evening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 here's some radar from a little earlier (10:12) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Hopefully we can see more LES this coming week. As more ice forms on the lake, the chances of particularly heavy snows will decrease. While it’s certainly been cold, it hasn’t been that cold, plus we had a mini torch between Christmas and New Year’s. Hopefully these two factors will buy us a little more time. I have had about 11” since it started snowing on New Year’s night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 8:46 PM, LakeEffectOH said: Hopefully we can see more LES this coming week. As more ice forms on the lake, the chances of particularly heavy snows will decrease. While it’s certainly been cold, it hasn’t been that cold, plus we had a mini torch between Christmas and New Year’s. Hopefully these two factors will buy us a little more time. I have had about 11” since it started snowing on New Year’s night. Expand Was just reading through the CLE discussion and looks like several LES chances this coming week. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CLE&issuedby=CLE&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Good grief, that was way more intense LES than I expected, especially towards the secondary snowbelts. I was traveling through Macedonia towards Akron Friday night and it was horrible. Then the future radar continued to show the snow ending and then it just continued going and going and going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Storm total of 12.8” here. Was lucky to get under some of the better banding late yesterday afternoon. It was pure fluff. Still some snow falling this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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