Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[NEOH]

12z Euro took a big step toward the GFS. 

[OHweather]

5 hours ago, NEOH said:

12z Euro took a big step toward the GFS. 

Indeed. The 0z NAM and Euro are looking like fun fantasy runs. We should still see some flakes in the air Thursday into Thursday night. 

[NEOH]

First snow of the season... and its sticking surprisingly with the warm ground. Shoutout to OHWeather for the "bonus extra long term" 

Some bonus "extra long term" this morning...global model ensembles are in good agreement that a robust "blocking" ridge in the jet
stream over the northern Pacific near/over Alaska will be persistent this week and likely through roughly the first week of December.
This pattern will significantly increase Arctic influence into North America, much more so than we`ve seen so far this fall. There`s
relatively strong agreement that a chunk of this air will attempt to dip into the U.S. to end next week, with potential for cyclogenesis
over the central or eastern U.S. around the end of next week ahead of the blast of colder air. Regardless of where any low pressure
develops and tracks, colder air will likely spill in behind it next weekend, with GFS and European ensembles both depicting roughly 50-
50 chances of 850mb temperatures dipping below -10C over the local area next weekend with much higher confidence just to our north and
northwest. This colder pattern likely then sticks with us through at least the first week of December, illustrated by the current CPC 8
to 14 day outlook depicting fairly high-confidence in colder than average temperatures for the period beginning the end of next week,
with a slight tilt towards above-average precipitation in that period too. While it`s too early to know for sure how effectively
cold air will work into the local area and if we`ll see a more widespread snow, potential for at least some lake effect snow in the
snowbelt and colder weather for all seems evident if this pattern plays out as ensembles currently depict starting next weekend.

[OHweather]

2 hours ago, NEOH said:

First snow of the season... and its sticking surprisingly with the warm ground. Shoutout to OHWeather for the "bonus extra long term" 

Some bonus "extra long term" this morning...global model ensembles are in good agreement that a robust "blocking" ridge in the jet
stream over the northern Pacific near/over Alaska will be persistent this week and likely through roughly the first week of December.
This pattern will significantly increase Arctic influence into North America, much more so than we`ve seen so far this fall. There`s
relatively strong agreement that a chunk of this air will attempt to dip into the U.S. to end next week, with potential for cyclogenesis
over the central or eastern U.S. around the end of next week ahead of the blast of colder air. Regardless of where any low pressure
develops and tracks, colder air will likely spill in behind it next weekend, with GFS and European ensembles both depicting roughly 50-
50 chances of 850mb temperatures dipping below -10C over the local area next weekend with much higher confidence just to our north and
northwest. This colder pattern likely then sticks with us through at least the first week of December, illustrated by the current CPC 8
to 14 day outlook depicting fairly high-confidence in colder than average temperatures for the period beginning the end of next week,
with a slight tilt towards above-average precipitation in that period too. While it`s too early to know for sure how effectively
cold air will work into the local area and if we`ll see a more widespread snow, potential for at least some lake effect snow in the
snowbelt and colder weather for all seems evident if this pattern plays out as ensembles currently depict starting next weekend.

Passing the time at 4 AM is an art  

The lake effect that pushes into the metro area and east side late this afternoon into this evening will probably be intense, and it should be cold enough for it to snow and accumulate away from the immediate lakeshore (it'll likely snow down to the lakeshore but may not stick). It'll probably push through the area within like a 6-8 hour span, but if a band can hang over any particular spots for a length of time a quick few inches is possible. Most will see less, but I will take this potential all things considered 

[vpbob21]

We're on the scoreboard with .2!  Would have been a top 10 event last year.

[dta1984]

It was nice seeing the snow this morning, probably had 1/2" or so in the grass.

WWA for 3-5" tonight.  The short rangers look great for eastern Cuyahoga and western Geauga.  

[WHEATCENT]

Nice cover in North mentor I'm a mile from the lake. 

[OHweather]

It wouldn’t stun me if someone near Mayfield gets half a foot of snow in the next few hours with the band looking like it’s going to pivot there as the winds shift northwesterly. 

[Chinook]

heavy snow bands near the football game tonight

[OHweather]

What an overperformer in the Cleveland metro and east side! 

[Chinook]

the football game is nothing but white!

 

[dta1984]

I measured 1.5" yesterday evening.  Not sure if the main lake band ever came this way overnight and added to that or not... All rain now.   Definitely nice to see the snow again.   Next weekend looks interesting!

[NEOH]

The heavy band never made it this far southeast. Everything was covered but nothing like North of here. A fried near Mulberry and Caves road had 5 inches. Overall the models did pretty well with showing the heaviest snow closer to the lake near metro CLE and the immediate east side. 

[OHweather]

Measured about 2.3” here before I went to bed, already about half melted. A nice event for some with an interesting looking pattern starting next weekend. 

[NEOH]

28 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Measured about 2.3” here before I went to bed, already about half melted. A nice event for some with an interesting looking pattern starting next weekend. 

Certainly was an unusual event and snowfall distribution. Hopefully we'll get more NW flow LES events this season. 

[dta1984]

Last several days of GFS and euro runs have been really good for neoh lake effect next week.   Canadian looks to keep the heaviest to the north, but other models seem to spread the wealth a little more.   Been a few years since we have had a prolonged multi day early season event.  

[NEOH]

32 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Last several days of GFS and euro runs have been really good for neoh lake effect next week.   Canadian looks to keep the heaviest to the north, but other models seem to spread the wealth a little more.   Been a few years since we have had a prolonged multi day early season event.  

Looking really good for an extended LES event. The models do show a trough over the lake which would likely keep winds more westerly and the heaviest snow north of here. Hoping that changes as we get closer. A solid WNW event is possible. 

[dta1984]

Another pretty good run, thru next Tues.  Looks like several potential chances over the next week. 

[NEOH]

15 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Another pretty good run, thru next Tues.  Looks like several potential chances over the next week. 

 

The lake effect set-up is coming into better focus. Looks like a Rt. 6 North special to start before transitioning to the primary snowbelt Sunday night into Tuesday. Would really like to see the flow come around to 280 or 290, but there appears to be troughing over the lake keeping the fetch more westerly. Still a few days away so things may change. 

[dta1984]

1 hour ago, NEOH said:

The lake effect set-up is coming into better focus. Looks like a Rt. 6 North special to start before transitioning to the primary snowbelt Sunday night into Tuesday. Would really like to see the flow come around to 280 or 290, but there appears to be troughing over the lake keeping the fetch more westerly. Still a few days away so things may change. 

Let's hope things look a little better once we get closer.  

[NEOH]

Not much change with the 12z runs today. Amazing how they have locked in to a wind direction for days now. Just a 10 degree difference would be a game changer.  Still looks good Sunday night through Tuesday but definitely in a weaker state. 

[OHweather]

Yeah, unfortunately we’ll watch the snow fly just to our north through most of the weekend. There could be an initial band that starts from the Cleveland metro into Geauga late tomorrow night into early Friday before it locks in closer to the lakeshore. While I think north east of us along I-90 will be the big winners, the environment is still pretty favorable for LES Sunday into the beginning of next week when we should get a more WNW wind direction. I’d say better than 50/50 odds we get a WNW flow band from Cuyahoga into Geauga at some point in there that drops warning criteria snow. 

[NEOH]

Woke to a coating of snow. Figured it would stay all rain but it changed over at some point. 
 

Surprised CLE issued a lake effect snow warning in this area for 6-14” between now and Saturday. Maybe they just have to include the entire county. The heavy snow should be well north of here.

[dta1984]

1 hour ago, NEOH said:

Woke to a coating of snow. Figured it would stay all rain but it changed over at some point. 
 

Surprised CLE issued a lake effect snow warning in this area for 6-14” between now and Saturday. Maybe they just have to include the entire county. The heavy snow should be well north of here.

Ya was thinking this is primarily for the northern parts.  Looks like 2-4" around here possibly.  Main show for us early next week. 

[WHEATCENT]

I'm going out to Andover today for Thanksgiving crazy latest long range HRRR with 40 out there by Saturday Morning.  

[OHweather]

4 hours ago, NEOH said:

Woke to a coating of snow. Figured it would stay all rain but it changed over at some point. 
 

Surprised CLE issued a lake effect snow warning in this area for 6-14” between now and Saturday. Maybe they just have to include the entire county. The heavy snow should be well north of here.

Unfortunately we are all of nothing for headlines in every county (except Ashtabula and Erie which have the lakeshore zones). Our current forecast supports a warning just because we have a solid 6-12” along and north of route 6. If we get reports from 3 separate locations that average out to 6”+ in a focused period of time (used to be a strict 12 hour rule) it’s considered an LES warning event. So for instance, if we get a report of 12” in Montville, 7” in Hambden 4” in Chardon it verifies as a warning event for Geauga.  We had a discussion at shift change when I came in late in the afternoon yesterday and I was a no vote on adding Geauga to the watch. We'll see how it ends up verifying (even if the northern part of the county does get warning snow into tomorrow, including the whole county in a watch for the whole weekend felt like overkill). 

That said, I do worry it focuses a bit farther northeast than our current forecast late tonight through early Saturday, which would leave pretty much all of Geauga and maybe even a decent chunk of Lake without much snow. This is a pristine LES setup, but the southern cutoff will be very sharp. Still looks good for stuff to shift farther inland by Sunday night or Monday. 

[OHweather]

2 hours ago, WHEATCENT said:

I'm going out to Andover today for Thanksgiving crazy latest long range HRRR with 40 out there by Saturday Morning.  

I full expect someone to have 3 or more feet by Saturday out that way, but I kind of think the band focuses a bit farther north than that, from far northern Ashtabula into Erie County. It’s a nutty setup and the model outputs are about as robust as I can remember around here. 

[LakeEffectOH]

44 minutes ago, OHweather said:

…Still looks good for stuff to shift farther inland by Sunday night or Monday…

What do you think the snow potential is for Northern Geauga county is for Sunday night and Monday?

[OHweather]

18 minutes ago, LakeEffectOH said:

What do you think the snow potential is for Northern Geauga county is for Sunday night and Monday?

It seems like there are two windows of WNW flow...Sunday/Sunday night into Monday (maybe an 18-24 hour window), a brief period where winds back more W or WSW ahead of the next shortwave later Monday, and then another good period of WNW flow later Monday night or early Tuesday through at least Tuesday evening. The environment for the first window will feature moderate and fairly deep instability with decent synoptic moisture and almost certainly an upstream connection to Lake Michigan...the second window appears to feature even stronger and deeper instability as we get a slightly deeper push of Arctic air behind the shortwave that goes by late Monday or Monday night. 

It's a little hard to pin down amounts this far out (need to see what the exact wind direction is, how consolidated/stationary the band will/won't be, etc.) but my impression is that both windows should support warning snow in the northern/eastern Cuyahoga into Geauga area. The second window may be a better opportunity for crazy amounts of over a foot, though parameters are pretty good Sunday into Monday too so if any band is consolidated enough and isn't drifting around too much someone could get a foot in that window too. 

[WHEATCENT]

When looking especially at the short term models,  on a site like pivotal (there's so many models) which would you say are better at handling lake effect?  Always been curious on that 

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

I full expect someone to have 3 or more feet by Saturday out that way, but I kind of think the band focuses a bit farther north than that, from far northern Ashtabula into Erie County. It’s a nutty setup and the model outputs are about as robust as I can remember around here.