Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[NEOH]

12z Euro took a big step toward the GFS. 

[OHweather]

5 hours ago, NEOH said:

12z Euro took a big step toward the GFS. 

Indeed. The 0z NAM and Euro are looking like fun fantasy runs. We should still see some flakes in the air Thursday into Thursday night. 

[NEOH]

First snow of the season... and its sticking surprisingly with the warm ground. Shoutout to OHWeather for the "bonus extra long term" 

Some bonus "extra long term" this morning...global model ensembles are in good agreement that a robust "blocking" ridge in the jet
stream over the northern Pacific near/over Alaska will be persistent this week and likely through roughly the first week of December.
This pattern will significantly increase Arctic influence into North America, much more so than we`ve seen so far this fall. There`s
relatively strong agreement that a chunk of this air will attempt to dip into the U.S. to end next week, with potential for cyclogenesis
over the central or eastern U.S. around the end of next week ahead of the blast of colder air. Regardless of where any low pressure
develops and tracks, colder air will likely spill in behind it next weekend, with GFS and European ensembles both depicting roughly 50-
50 chances of 850mb temperatures dipping below -10C over the local area next weekend with much higher confidence just to our north and
northwest. This colder pattern likely then sticks with us through at least the first week of December, illustrated by the current CPC 8
to 14 day outlook depicting fairly high-confidence in colder than average temperatures for the period beginning the end of next week,
with a slight tilt towards above-average precipitation in that period too. While it`s too early to know for sure how effectively
cold air will work into the local area and if we`ll see a more widespread snow, potential for at least some lake effect snow in the
snowbelt and colder weather for all seems evident if this pattern plays out as ensembles currently depict starting next weekend.

[OHweather]

2 hours ago, NEOH said:

First snow of the season... and its sticking surprisingly with the warm ground. Shoutout to OHWeather for the "bonus extra long term" 

Some bonus "extra long term" this morning...global model ensembles are in good agreement that a robust "blocking" ridge in the jet
stream over the northern Pacific near/over Alaska will be persistent this week and likely through roughly the first week of December.
This pattern will significantly increase Arctic influence into North America, much more so than we`ve seen so far this fall. There`s
relatively strong agreement that a chunk of this air will attempt to dip into the U.S. to end next week, with potential for cyclogenesis
over the central or eastern U.S. around the end of next week ahead of the blast of colder air. Regardless of where any low pressure
develops and tracks, colder air will likely spill in behind it next weekend, with GFS and European ensembles both depicting roughly 50-
50 chances of 850mb temperatures dipping below -10C over the local area next weekend with much higher confidence just to our north and
northwest. This colder pattern likely then sticks with us through at least the first week of December, illustrated by the current CPC 8
to 14 day outlook depicting fairly high-confidence in colder than average temperatures for the period beginning the end of next week,
with a slight tilt towards above-average precipitation in that period too. While it`s too early to know for sure how effectively
cold air will work into the local area and if we`ll see a more widespread snow, potential for at least some lake effect snow in the
snowbelt and colder weather for all seems evident if this pattern plays out as ensembles currently depict starting next weekend.

Passing the time at 4 AM is an art  

The lake effect that pushes into the metro area and east side late this afternoon into this evening will probably be intense, and it should be cold enough for it to snow and accumulate away from the immediate lakeshore (it'll likely snow down to the lakeshore but may not stick). It'll probably push through the area within like a 6-8 hour span, but if a band can hang over any particular spots for a length of time a quick few inches is possible. Most will see less, but I will take this potential all things considered 

[vpbob21]

We're on the scoreboard with .2!  Would have been a top 10 event last year.

[dta1984]

It was nice seeing the snow this morning, probably had 1/2" or so in the grass.

WWA for 3-5" tonight.  The short rangers look great for eastern Cuyahoga and western Geauga.  

[WHEATCENT]

Nice cover in North mentor I'm a mile from the lake. 

[OHweather]

It wouldn’t stun me if someone near Mayfield gets half a foot of snow in the next few hours with the band looking like it’s going to pivot there as the winds shift northwesterly.