Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[NEOH]

6 hours ago, Speedskater said:

Betsy Kling on WKYC-TV was talking about a Back Door Lake Effect Snow Storm this weekend.  With the moisture coming from Lake Ontario.

That would be the most unusual and unlikely lake effect set up we could ever have. Perhaps she confused Ontario with Huron. 

[Speedskater]

Nope, North East wind.

[Floydbuster]

People are hyping this one up big time. Nearly every school in Northeast Ohio is closed for Friday. Color me skeptical. I think this snowfall is being vastly overestimated. 

[OHweather]

16 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

People are hyping this one up big time. Nearly every school in Northeast Ohio is closed for Friday. Color me skeptical. I think this snowfall is being vastly overestimated. 

But is 4-6" of snow falling in a 36 hour period in Stow, which is what the forecast is, actually hyping it up big time? Can't control that all the schools are closing but the forecast is not for anything your area hasn't seen before. It'll be decent farther north where there's more lake enhancement. 

[Floydbuster]

2 hours ago, OHweather said:

But is 4-6" of snow falling in a 36 hour period in Stow, which is what the forecast is, actually hyping it up big time? Can't control that all the schools are closing but the forecast is not for anything your area hasn't seen before. It'll be decent farther north where there's more lake enhancement. 

 

That's what I'm saying as well. Everyone is acting as if the entire area is in for a wild ride, and I actually don't think it'll be that bad. Last Friday, before the switchover to rain and gusty winds, we had a good 2 inches fall in about an hour and a half. Compare that to perhaps 4 inches in 2-3 days time? That's nothing to me. I certainly think they could have higher accumulations near the lakeshore, but further south, probably not nearly as much.

Also, everyone has been very confused because we have local weather apps on phones showing no more than 30% chance of precipitation here and there the next two days, yet we have a Winter Storm Warning issued warning people to prepare for "5 to 10 inches" of snow. Lots of conflicting forecasts.

 

Look here...Cleveland weather Friday and Saturday....

 

Friday shows no more than a 50% chance of precipitation around 8am this morning for Cleveland, tapering off.

 

Then on Saturday, it tapers off further to 0%.

 

How the hell does Cleveland get 5-10 inches of snow Friday and Saturday from near zero precipitation chances? Anyone wanna help me out on this one?

[WHEATCENT]

Looks like Lorain county getting good enhancement so far this morning....

[dta1984]

6 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

 

That's what I'm saying as well. Everyone is acting as if the entire area is in for a wild ride, and I actually don't think it'll be that bad. Last Friday, before the switchover to rain and gusty winds, we had a good 2 inches fall in about an hour and a half. Compare that to perhaps 4 inches in 2-3 days time? That's nothing to me. I certainly think they could have higher accumulations near the lakeshore, but further south, probably not nearly as much.

Also, everyone has been very confused because we have local weather apps on phones showing no more than 30% chance of precipitation here and there the next two days, yet we have a Winter Storm Warning issued warning people to prepare for "5 to 10 inches" of snow. Lots of conflicting forecasts.

 

Look here...Cleveland weather Friday and Saturday....

 

Friday shows no more than a 50% chance of precipitation around 8am this morning for Cleveland, tapering off.

 

Then on Saturday, it tapers off further to 0%.

 

How the hell does Cleveland get 5-10 inches of snow Friday and Saturday from near zero precipitation chances? Anyone wanna help me out on this one?

Sounds like you need a new weather app.  I have wunderground, it's ok, but I recommend also using the NWS CLE website (and their social media) as that's just focused on our area.  

[NEOH]

Very light snow falling. Looks like lake enhancement is picking up on the west side. Hopefully that delivers later today as winds come around. The system snow has been underwhelming so far. 

[OHweather]

1.4" new here so far. The synoptic snow was never going to be that exciting but it's going to end up being a general 1-3 instead of 2-5 across northern OH. Hopkins reported 1" of new snow last hour so the enhancement is working out...just need it to swing east, which is expected. 

[OHweather]

8 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

 

That's what I'm saying as well. Everyone is acting as if the entire area is in for a wild ride, and I actually don't think it'll be that bad. Last Friday, before the switchover to rain and gusty winds, we had a good 2 inches fall in about an hour and a half. Compare that to perhaps 4 inches in 2-3 days time? That's nothing to me. I certainly think they could have higher accumulations near the lakeshore, but further south, probably not nearly as much.

Also, everyone has been very confused because we have local weather apps on phones showing no more than 30% chance of precipitation here and there the next two days, yet we have a Winter Storm Warning issued warning people to prepare for "5 to 10 inches" of snow. Lots of conflicting forecasts.

 

Look here...Cleveland weather Friday and Saturday....

 

Friday shows no more than a 50% chance of precipitation around 8am this morning for Cleveland, tapering off.

 

Then on Saturday, it tapers off further to 0%.

 

How the hell does Cleveland get 5-10 inches of snow Friday and Saturday from near zero precipitation chances? Anyone wanna help me out on this one?

I agree with many of your points here...yes, that short burst of heavy snow last Friday heading into the evening rush was impactful and I would agree that peak rates (if they last any amount of time) are more important to the impact than the final storm total at the end of it. 

As for the weather app only showing 50/50 precip chances...I don't know what to tell you. I don't know who the provider is or how they come up with their forecasts. Seeing as though it's currently snowing everywhere it is garbage. I can see how 5-10" of snow on 50/50 chances for snow is confusing but the app appears to be bad.

I usually advise people to pick a couple sources for weather information and stick to them..."shopping around" just gets confusing. I would suggest checking the NWS webpage (weather.gov/cle/winter) and social media (if you're on it) as those forecasts are what drive the watches/warnings/advisories...and we're certainly not perfect, but you're not going to get something there that's completely out of left field. You'll also be able to see the gridded snowfall forecast for the whole area, so you don't have to guess. There's collaboration that occurs shift to shift, between offices, and with the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) on things like QPF and snow so it's hard for a forecast that's entirely unreasonable to come out.

And to be honest, I don't think our TV mets are bad in general, especially if you find a channel or met you like. I didn't catch all of them yesterday but I didn't see anyone hyping any crazy snow amounts, especially in Summit. I think people tend to run with the worst number they hear...and I do think it's a struggle to message storms like this where it won't be a heavy snow amount outside of the lake enhancement...and where the snow won't all fall at once. We never had 10" amounts listed in Summit County's warning, although if you told me that the warning probably doesn't apply to the southern half of the county I'd agree. 

We do attempt to keep these messaging/perception things in mind. This was posted to the NWS social media yesterday morning and emailed out to "core partners":

It's not going to be perfect. The synoptic snow has trended down a good 1-2" farther south and west (and I hate that amounts in NW OH of 4-4.5" trigger the 4-6" range for the cities because they're realistically going to get 2-3"). But it also gets across that most areas are not getting 6"+ of snow in any 24 hour period, which was why we broke it down like that and sent it out. The areas that were forecast to get 6"+ in either window were where I did warnings yesterday morning (we no longer have a time constraint for warning criteria...just needs to be 6" for an event...but still wanted to draw a line somewhere). The big error here was the synoptic snow trending down 1-2", and the Erie/Huron warnings are probably not going to pan out. They have had some lake enhancement this morning but the best enhancement has already set up to the east and amounts so far out there appear to be 1-3". 

As for us farther east, the best lake enhancement is definitely working east now and guidance suggests it will pivot for a good few hours through mid-afternoon over parts of Lorain, Medina, and perhaps northern/western Summit before pushing farther east and transitioning to more traditional lake effect tonight. We still have a chance to pick up a decent amount of snow in parts of Summit through this afternoon. 

[Floydbuster]

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

I agree with many of your points here...yes, that short burst of heavy snow last Friday heading into the evening rush was impactful and I would agree that peak rates (if they last any amount of time) are more important to the impact than the final storm total at the end of it. 

As for the weather app only showing 50/50 precip chances...I don't know what to tell you. I don't know who the provider is or how they come up with their forecasts. Seeing as though it's currently snowing everywhere it is garbage. I can see how 5-10" of snow on 50/50 chances for snow is confusing but the app appears to be bad.

I usually advise people to pick a couple sources for weather information and stick to them..."shopping around" just gets confusing. I would suggest checking the NWS webpage (weather.gov/cle/winter) and social media (if you're on it) as those forecasts are what drive the watches/warnings/advisories...and we're certainly not perfect, but you're not going to get something there that's completely out of left field. You'll also be able to see the gridded snowfall forecast for the whole area, so you don't have to guess. There's collaboration that occurs shift to shift, between offices, and with the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) on things like QPF and snow so it's hard for a forecast that's entirely unreasonable to come out.

And to be honest, I don't think our TV mets are bad in general, especially if you find a channel or met you like. I didn't catch all of them yesterday but I didn't see anyone hyping any crazy snow amounts, especially in Summit. I think people tend to run with the worst number they hear...and I do think it's a struggle to message storms like this where it won't be a heavy snow amount outside of the lake enhancement...and where the snow won't all fall at once. We never had 10" amounts listed in Summit County's warning, although if you told me that the warning probably doesn't apply to the southern half of the county I'd agree. 

We do attempt to keep these messaging/perception things in mind. This was posted to the NWS social media yesterday morning and emailed out to "core partners":

 

It's not going to be perfect. The synoptic snow has trended down a good 1-2" farther south and west (and I hate that amounts in NW OH of 4-4.5" trigger the 4-6" range for the cities because they're realistically going to get 2-3"). But it also gets across that most areas are not getting 6"+ of snow in any 24 hour period, which was why we broke it down like that and sent it out. The areas that were forecast to get 6"+ in either window were where I did warnings yesterday morning (we no longer have a time constraint for warning criteria...just needs to be 6" for an event...but still wanted to draw a line somewhere). The big error here was the synoptic snow trending down 1-2", and the Erie/Huron warnings are probably not going to pan out. They have had some lake enhancement this morning but the best enhancement has already set up to the east and amounts so far out there appear to be 1-3". 

As for us farther east, the best lake enhancement is definitely working east now and guidance suggests it will pivot for a good few hours through mid-afternoon over parts of Lorain, Medina, and perhaps northern/western Summit before pushing farther east and transitioning to more traditional lake effect tonight. We still have a chance to pick up a decent amount of snow in parts of Summit through this afternoon. 

 

Thank you for the response. The "app" I showed is typing "Cleveland Weather Hour by Hour" into google. The other apps are the "weather" apps that people have on their I-Phones. 

Of course, I use the official NWS website and read the advisories, but of course I'm far more seasoned in tropical weather and hurricanes despite living in the snowy midwest. 

 

[OHweather]

13 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

 

Thank you for the response. The "app" I showed is typing "Cleveland Weather Hour by Hour" into google. The other apps are the "weather" apps that people have on their I-Phones. 

Of course, I use the official NWS website and read the advisories, but of course I'm far more seasoned in tropical weather and hurricanes despite living in the snowy midwest. 

 

The Google search is concerning because I could see a lot of people doing something like that. A lot of the default phone apps use AccuWx or TWC as their "data" (I'm sure there are some others though)...which is better than Google at least, but still iffy. 

Snow has picked up somewhat in Macedonia where I am...probably close to an inch new since I measured. Hopefully we're looking at a nice, snowy next several hours around here to make up for the lack-luster synoptic snow. 

[OHweather]

This lake enhanced band is quality...night and day compared to the widespread synoptic stuff. Just stuck the ruler in (didn't do a formal measure and clear) and have about 2.5" new since 8:30 (storm total nearing 4") and it is dumping dendrites under the band at the moment. Hopefully it persists through the late afternoon and swings around enough to give everyone a nice boost. 

Edit: 7" LSR from near Lakewood where the lake enhancement was more persistent this morning. 

[vpbob21]

Looks like just under 2" here.  Should be the final total.  Surprised CLE hasn't killed the WSW for Erie/Huron yet.

[NEOH]

58 minutes ago, OHweather said:

This lake enhanced band is quality...night and day compared to the widespread synoptic stuff. Just stuck the ruler in (didn't do a formal measure and clear) and have about 2.5" new since 8:30 (storm total nearing 4") and it is dumping dendrites under the band at the moment. Hopefully it persists through the late afternoon and swings around enough to give everyone a nice boost. 

Edit: 7" LSR from near Lakewood where the lake enhancement was more persistent this morning. 

Still a persistent light snow here in south russell... very small flakes. Looking forward to having that band move east later today. 

[OHweather]

27 minutes ago, vpbob21 said:

Looks like just under 2" here.  Should be the final total.  Surprised CLE hasn't killed the WSW for Erie/Huron yet.

When the better lake enhancement started developing in Lorain Co early this morning the writing was unfortunately on the wall for the Erie and Huron warnings. The synoptic snow being even more boring than hoped hurt even more. With all of that said, there’s an interesting area of enhancement along a trough axis (with some Lake Huron connection) swinging southeast out of MI right now, so you may be able to add some more when it swings through later this afternoon. Not enough to get you close to 6” but maybe another inch or two wherever it goes. 

6 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Still a persistent light snow here in south russell... very small flakes. Looking forward to having that band move east later today. 

This event has been painful outside of the lake enhanced band. 

[NEOH]

17 minutes ago, OHweather said:

When the better lake enhancement started developing in Lorain Co early this morning the writing was unfortunately on the wall for the Erie and Huron warnings. The synoptic snow being even more boring than hoped hurt even more. With all of that said, there’s an interesting area of enhancement along a trough axis (with some Lake Huron connection) swinging southeast out of MI right now, so you may be able to add some more when it swings through later this afternoon. Not enough to get you close to 6” but maybe another inch or two wherever it goes. 

 

This event has been painful outside of the lake enhanced band. 

Definitely. Just looked at the models and it looks like they take the current band back southwest as it dissipates. Out this way we will likely have to  rely on whatever forms on the NW flow. Sun is poking through now occasionally. Oof. 

[vpbob21]

24 minutes ago, OHweather said:

When the better lake enhancement started developing in Lorain Co early this morning the writing was unfortunately on the wall for the Erie and Huron warnings. The synoptic snow being even more boring than hoped hurt even more. With all of that said, there’s an interesting area of enhancement along a trough axis (with some Lake Huron connection) swinging southeast out of MI right now, so you may be able to add some more when it swings through later this afternoon. Not enough to get you close to 6” but maybe another inch or two wherever it goes. 

 

Yeah the models always seem to overpredict lake enhancement this far west.  It always seems to develop over Lorain/Medina then moves east from there.  Not holding out high hopes for that band coming out of SE Michigan but we'll see.

 

I always love reading your posts on the long range outlook.  Any chance you'll have a new one up soon?  The 12z GFS looks about as brutal as it gets.  I know I shouldn't put much stock in the 384 hr. GFS but given the state of the MJO and the AO/NAO it certainly looks believable.

[OHweather]

15 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Definitely. Just looked at the models and it looks like they take the current band back southwest as it dissipates. Out this way we will likely have to  rely on whatever forms on the NW flow. Sun is poking through now occasionally. Oof. 

You may end up grinding out accumulations through tomorrow evening so hopefully you catch up some, but agree the band is wiggling back west at the moment. Where it pivots this afternoon totals will be huge. I have 5.2" new since my 1.4" morning measure and it's dumping again here. The band will probably wiggle west until 3 or 4pm and then snap east after that as the trough axis moves through. 

[OHweather]

7 minutes ago, vpbob21 said:

Yeah the models always seem to overpredict lake enhancement this far west.  It always seems to develop over Lorain/Medina then moves east from there.  Not holding out high hopes for that band coming out of SE Michigan but we'll see.

 

I always love reading your posts on the long range outlook.  Any chance you'll have a new one up soon?  The 12z GFS looks about as brutal as it gets.  I know I shouldn't put much stock in the 384 hr. GFS but given the state of the MJO and the AO/NAO it certainly looks believable.

I was going to try to put something together over the next few days or week. Have fallen slightly out of touch with the long range on night shifts and with the incoming snow the last several days. A warm up after this cold snap isn't surprising to me, but I'll admit the long range ensembles are not giving me optimism regarding how quickly cold may come back after the warmup. 

I remember one event on super bowl Sunday in 2022 with this type of flow when a mesolow formed just east of the Islands and brought several (unforecasted) inches of snow to Erie/Huron Counties. This event gave me some flashbacks to that, but it didn't materialize at all. In that event the lake was mostly frozen but water opened up east of the Islands, whereas this one maybe it's the other way around with more ice there and more open water farther east. 

[vpbob21]

3 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I was going to try to put something together over the next few days or week. Have fallen slightly out of touch with the long range on night shifts and with the incoming snow the last several days. A warm up after this cold snap isn't surprising to me, but I'll admit the long range ensembles are not giving me optimism regarding how quickly cold may come back after the warmup. 

I remember one event on super bowl Sunday in 2022 with this type of flow when a mesolow formed just east of the Islands and brought several (unforecasted) inches of snow to Erie/Huron Counties. This event gave me some flashbacks to that, but it didn't materialize at all. In that event the lake was mostly frozen but water opened up east of the Islands, whereas this one maybe it's the other way around with more ice there and more open water farther east. 

Appreciate your thoughts!  Thanks!

 

[OHweather]

I'll do a measure and clear in an hour or so, but just sticking a ruler into my new snow since 1:20 brings my storm total to right at a foot! What an afternoon. Snow has finally slowed down, but hasn't stopped. 

Also, woof:

https://x.com/Shinutsurai1/status/1748454511679582364?s=20 

(17" public report from Maple Heights)

[Speedskater]

6 PM Friday. Over 6 inches of new snow near Lakewood Park. But a helpful neighbor shoveled snow at my best measuring spots, so I'm just estimating.

Temperature at 2 PM ~ 27°F, at 6 PM below 22°F.

[LakeEffectOH]

4 hours ago, OHweather said:

A warm up after this cold snap isn't surprising to me, but I'll admit the long range ensembles are not giving me optimism regarding how quickly cold may come back after the warmup.

OHweather,

A little break from the current snow event...

What are your thoughts about the recent crash in snowfall totals measured at CLE?

Link:  https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org

Here are some of my thoughts on possible contributing factors:

Recent tendency of the MJO to linger in the "Bad phases" (4-7);  The  changes in the Indo-Pacific warm pool could be a factor in this.

Expansion and warming of the Indo-Pacific Ocean:

A strongly negative PDO over the past several years:

Link:  https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/09/01/pacific-decadal-oscillation

A greater tendency of the winter NAO to be positive, especially in the past 10 years, (circled in green): 

 

Link:  https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/nao/img/idl_nao_base1951-1980_ONDJFM_300dpi.png

Of course, there are many other factors, large and small, that are affecting our snow totals.  I only hope this isn't permanent because of climate change.

I would be interested in hearing your and anyone else's thoughts.

 

[Chinook]

My area got 1.5-2.0" with maybe a few bits of enhancement from Lake Huron, as the clouds and the light snow stuck around. Here's the radar with some storm reports around snowy Cleveland tonight.

 

[OHweather]

17 minutes ago, LakeEffectOH said:

OHweather,

A little break from the current snow event...

What are your thoughts about the recent crash in snowfall totals measured at CLE?

Link:  https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org

Here are some of my thoughts on possible contributing factors:

Recent tendency of the MJO to linger in the "Bad phases" (4-7);  The  changes in the Indo-Pacific warm pool could be a factor in this.

Expansion and warming of the Indo-Pacific Ocean:

A strongly negative PDO over the past several years:

Link:  https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/09/01/pacific-decadal-oscillation

A greater tendency of the winter NAO to be positive, especially in the past 10 years, (circled in green): 

 

Link:  https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/nao/img/idl_nao_base1951-1980_ONDJFM_300dpi.png

Of course, there are many other factors, large and small, that are affecting our snow totals.  I only hope this isn't permanent because of climate change.

I would be interested in hearing your and anyone else's thoughts.

 

I will take a better look and respond to this over the next couple of days! I have some thoughts but would like to look a bit more/think a bit more on it. CLE hasn't had a snowier than average winter since 2013-14 (though most other sites have had at least 1-2 since), so whatever the cause it hasn't been a trivial stretch of poor winters from a snow perspective. 

[dta1984]

Measured 6.5", and that would be my total so far.  On and off bursts of snow this morning, looks like some nw flow le trying to form.  

[NEOH]

Great to have the lake effect parked over this area. On and off heavy snow most of the day. Picked up a fluffy 3” so far. 

[OHweather]

I’ve been up in the Mayfield/Highland Hts area this afternoon and there have been some decent bursts of fluffy lake effect.
 

The scraps overnight at my house brought my storm total up to 12.5”. Much of the area caught up yesterday afternoon through early this morning (although ironically, outside of Erie and Huron which didn’t verify, the warnings I’m least confident in being able to verify are Lake, Geauga, and Ashtabula lakeshore. The Ashtabula lakeshore zone is often hard to verify, but not verifying Geauga in this sort of setup while verifying the entire Cleveland metro would be quite a twist) 

[OHweather]

Went for a hike in the Novelty and Punderson areas this afternoon and drove 422 into Solon around 6 PM. Decent LES out there. Could definitely tell Novelty had gotten a few inches of very fluffy snow today and it was still coming down, especially when I left. The conditions coming into Solon when the LES band was more consolidated were solid, with visibility reduced to about half a mile as dendrites dumped. Snow rates may have been close to an inch an hour, the highway and main roads in Solon were snow packed with a good inch, and side roads and parking lots that were less disturbed looked to have a good couple inches on them. 

Back in Macedonia, I picked up slightly over an inch today...giving me a total of 13.7" over the last two days. It hasn't snowed many times this winter but when it has, it has delivered here.