Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

[Trent]

Part 2 of the discussion.

Hopefully Lake Erie cooperates this season with the occasional app runner thrown in.

[OHweather]

We should have synoptic storms to track over the last 10 days of the month, whether they actually hit us with snow vs miss to the east or cut too far to the west remain to be seen. The GFS and Euro ensembles are showing a chilly look after Christmas, so we'll see if that can get the LES machine cranking. I'm hoping for an active next 4 weeks either way.

[NEOH]

We should have synoptic storms to track over the last 10 days of the month, whether they actually hit us with snow vs miss to the east or cut too far to the west remain to be seen. The GFS and Euro ensembles are showing a chilly look after Christmas, so we'll see if that can get the LES machine cranking. I'm hoping for an active next 4 weeks either way.

 

Long range does look interesting... and this afternoon's euro agrees for later next week. Something to watch at least. The one thing I would like to see this winter is a favorable LES set-up/wind direction when the cold comes back. Seems that the fetch is always WSW following arctic frontal passages.

[NEOH]

What a great fantasy land storm on the euro for Christmas. If only...

 

Just gotta get through the next week or so then hopefully back to winter. The perpetual cloudy/foggy weather with drizzle has been awful.

[OHweather]

Looks like we'll get a couple days of light lake effect snow showers starting tomorrow and possibly extending into Friday. Instability is weak and inversions don't get much above 850mb, although there is good moisture beneath the inversion, so we will probably whiten the ground in the Snowbelt by Friday but not much more. I'm somewhat worried about freezing drizzle at times with the moisture/instability not getting above the -10C isotherm on the soundings for a good portion of the "event." We'll see what next week brings. Even if the synoptic storm on the models misses us, it should get colder for some better lake effect on the backside depending on the wind direction.

[Trent]

We are surely paying this month for last month's near record snowfall.

CLE is now an inch away from making another top 10 wettest year. Looks like it will come down to the wire. I'd hope it'd be a snowstorm that puts us over the top, but sadly a Christmas Eve rainstorm is just as likely.

[NEOH]

Nice to see some snow in the air this morning... with a little more to come tonight. I think a top 10 precip finish is almost a lock. Let's hope the frozen variety pushes us over. Regardless of what happens next week, that is one heck of a storm. If it's windy rainer, we would probably see decent backside snows. Still a long ways out.

[OHweather]

It's been snowing very lightly essentially non-stop for a little over 24 hours here now...have racked up a whopping 0.2" in that timeframe.

[NEOH]

It's been snowing very lightly essentially non-stop for a little over 24 hours here now...have racked up a whopping 0.2" in that timeframe.

I've managed the same whopping total. No where to go but up. No comment on next weeks storm potential until Sunday.

[Trent]

I had to brush a dusting of snow off my car too earlier this evening. However it's actually switched over to a light drizzle/freezing drizzle.

Regardless of where that storm hits next week, the LES machines will be firing up. Impossible to even take a stab whether we'll be fortunate to have west/northwest winds. It seems we'd want this storm to bomb out north or east of Ottawa, anything northwest of there would probably result in southwest winds locally, keeping LES out of NE Ohio.

[OHweather]

CLE ended up issuing a winter weather advisory for the freezing drizzle...I heard it got pretty bad on some of the highways and parts of 480 were closed for a time. There was definitely freezing drizzle out here for a few hours but everything was pretty well treated. There's a half decent W-E band slowly sagging south across the metro right now, but the snow is pretty sand like so it's not accumulating efficiently. Encouraging trends on the 0z model runs for wraparound snow potential on Christmas Eve into Christmas day but that has a long ways to go.

[NEOH]

Picked up another .2 last night. Looks like an inch or two fell just north of Rt 87.

 

Trent brings up a good point. If this storm bombs anywhere west of Lake Huron seems like we would be stuck in a SW flow until the storm moves to the NE. 850 temps aren't impressive but the deep cyclonic flow and moisture would do the trick. However, wouldn't the strong winds disrupt the banding? Probably a "green blob" scenario over inland areas.  

[BuffaloWeather]

Picked up another .2 last night. Looks like an inch or two fell just north of Rt 87.

 

Trent brings up a good point. If this storm bombs anywhere west of Lake Huron seems like we would be stuck in a SW flow until the storm moves to the NE. 850 temps aren't impressive but the deep cyclonic flow and moisture would do the trick. However, wouldn't the strong winds disrupt the banding? Probably a "green blob" scenario over inland areas.  

 

Temps aren't really cold enough for lake effect behind this storm.

[NEOH]

Temps aren't really cold enough for lake effect behind this storm.

 

Yeah, that's what I mentioned. Lake enhanced snow would the scenario... not a pure LES event.

[BuffaloWeather]

Yeah euro looks good for you guys with the wrap around snow.

[NEOH]

12z euro is closer to a decent solution for OH... at least with wrap around potential. A tick or two east would be ideal for backside snow. Lot's of model runs to go but at least the euro didn't jump on the western bandwagon. 

[Trent]

At least there weren't many solutions that showed a decent hit for here. LES potential looks grim now as the westward trend continues, setting up a SW flow in its wake.

 

WHICHEVER MODEL YOU BELIEVE FORECAST IS STILL THE SAME. RAIN ON

WEDNESDAY CHANGING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN
TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. BY CHRISTMAS MORNING THE 850MB TEMPS
PLUNGE TO -9C AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE BEGINS. BUT WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW BUFFALO WILL GET THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

[NEOH]

At least there weren't many solutions that showed a decent hit for here. LES potential looks grim now as the westward trend continues, setting up a SW flow in its wake.

 

WHICHEVER MODEL YOU BELIEVE FORECAST IS STILL THE SAME. RAIN ON

WEDNESDAY CHANGING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN

TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. BY CHRISTMAS MORNING THE 850MB TEMPS

PLUNGE TO -9C AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE BEGINS. BUT WITH A

SOUTHWEST FLOW BUFFALO WILL GET THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

Yeah, it's probably time to put a fork in this one... I'll give until tomorrow's 12z runs before waiving the towel. From what I understand there still isn't full sampling at this point. Just hoping for a little wrap around entertainment on Christmas. At least the cutter behind the storm looks to have gone away. What a stark contrast between November and December.

[NEOH]

Anyone still following the storm? What a mess on the models. If anything our prospects for snow showers on Christmas look to have improved.

[dta1984]

Not too much. Always thought our best opportunity would be from lake effect afterwards. That appears to be off the table. Some flakes will definitely be nice. We really need a good storm to close out December. It's been a rather lame month, though the rocking November makes up for it I guess.

[Trent]

Anyone still following the storm? What a mess on the models. If anything our prospects for snow showers on Christmas look to have improved.

 

At this point, we'd need a Christmas miracle to get snow. Nonetheless it's been interesting to watch the completely different solutions unfold with each run.

 

Also, 2 things to continue to watch out for:

 

CLE needs to end the month with less than 2.8" of snow to make the bottom 10 snowiest Decembers. Sadly, this looks completely doable.

 

And CLE needs to get another 0.93" of liquid equivalent to crack another top 10 wettest year. Rain chances look pretty high on Tues and Weds, but will it be enough? This one will come down to the wire.

 

This December has been truly abysmal weather wise, endless clouds, no snow, drizzle every couple days, and useless temperatures.

[BuffaloWeather]

At this point, we'd need a Christmas miracle to get snow. Nonetheless it's been interesting to watch the completely different solutions unfold with each run.

 

Also, 2 things to continue to watch out for:

 

CLE needs to end the month with less than 2.8" of snow to make the bottom 10 snowiest Decembers. Sadly, this looks completely doable.

 

And CLE needs to get another 0.93" of liquid equivalent to crack another top 10 wettest year. Rain chances look pretty high on Tues and Weds, but will it be enough? This one will come down to the wire.

 

This December has been truly abysmal weather wise, endless clouds, no snow, drizzle every couple days, and useless temperatures.

 

There is some good in this pattern. The lake has no ice and it will probably warm up the next week or so. We will have the entire month of January with an open lake, and that is when we usually get the most arctic air. Last year by January 5th the lake was 70% frozen. The lake is still in the 40s up on the northeastern portion.

 

[NEOH]

At this point, we'd need a Christmas miracle to get snow. Nonetheless it's been interesting to watch the completely different solutions unfold with each run.

 

Also, 2 things to continue to watch out for:

 

CLE needs to end the month with less than 2.8" of snow to make the bottom 10 snowiest Decembers. Sadly, this looks completely doable.

 

And CLE needs to get another 0.93" of liquid equivalent to crack another top 10 wettest year. Rain chances look pretty high on Tues and Weds, but will it be enough? This one will come down to the wire.

 

This December has been truly abysmal weather wise, endless clouds, no snow, drizzle every couple days, and useless temperatures.

It has been an odd December... We were spoiled in November. There is still snow on the ground here and temps haven't made it above freezing for a few days... So there has been a wintry feel at least. We'll probably break the futility record. The endless clouds I can do without. Hopefully the pattern reshuffles in our favor. The upcoming storm is over for here outside of snowshowers behind the front. The early calls like "it's coming west" have been nauseating.

[Trent]

If I'm looking at today's Euro correctly, I see the 60 degree surface temp creeping into northern Ohio on Christmas Eve .. Ouch

[NEOH]

Looks rather toasty. Not sure about 60 but it will be very mild all the back to lake michigan.

 

[OHweather]

If I'm looking at today's Euro correctly, I see the 60 degree surface temp creeping into northern Ohio on Christmas Eve .. Ouch

You are correct. I'd almost be surprised if CLE doesn't crack 60 for at least a few hours on Wednesday. I believe the record is 65 which might be doable if we get some sun like some models are suggesting.

[Chinook]

As for northern Ohio discussion: my call is for a 50% chance for a wind gust over 50 kts (58mph) at KTOL on Christmas Eve- very early Christmas Day.

[NEOH]

Don S had a nice disco on the upcoming pattern... not quite as good as OHWeather's .  He references the winter of 91/92. Not sure on the details for individual months but CLE recorded 67.5" that winter. Certainly not a disaster.

 

I'll be out getting some yard work done the next couple of days.

[Trent]

The amount of rain progged to fall with the storm keeps getting slashed as well. Some models just showing a few tenths now.

All in all, CLE won't be running a snowfall deficit until New Years (assuming no snow falls til then) so it's not like this winter is necessarily off to a bad start when you look at Nov and Dec combined, even though December was/is a disaster.

The one plus is that we have a wide open lake so lake effect chances are extended.

[NEOH]

The amount of rain progged to fall with the storm keeps getting slashed as well. Some models just showing a few tenths now.

All in all, CLE won't be running a snowfall deficit until New Years (assuming no snow falls til then) so it's not like this winter is necessarily off to a bad start when you look at Nov and Dec combined, even though December was/is a disaster.

The one plus is that we have a wide open lake so lake effect chances are extended.

 

Yeah, pretty amazing that we have a positive snowfall departure considering how December has been. Had the pattern held through December the lake would likely have a lot of ice by now. Let's hope for a rockin January.