Powerball Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 January 22, 2005. Winds were about 12 -13 mph at KDTW when snow was falling heavily. That was a fun one. I remember it well. Gusts to 27kt (30mph) when snow was light, so that is not really that close to a true blizzard at KDTW. --- KDTW 1415 10 9 92 30 12 964 0.2 2 OVC S+ --- SPECI KDTW 221415Z 03012KT 1/4SM R03L/1400V3000FT +SN FZFG OVC002 M12/M13 A2964 RMK AO2 P0001 -- KDTW 221754Z 36018G27KT 1SM R03L/2200V5500FT -SN BR VV006 M09/M12 A2970 RMK AO2 PK WND 01027/1747 TWR VIS 1 1/2 SLP068 4/007 933004 P0000 60013 T10941117 11094 21117 50020 $ Certainly not a blizzard, but it was the last time Detroit just saw barely over 12" of snow and it was consistently heavy snowfall, so a favorite no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I have noticed it will be very windy here but not Flint or Detroit. The HRRR has actually been good at showing this in it's forecasts. Just the other day we were getting some late evening winds here 20-25mph with gusts up to 35mph. Flint had winds around 10-15mph and DTW reported winds of 5 mph. I looked at the HRRR and it had nailed it in the winds forecast. I have noticed this quite a bit here that it is windy compared to surrounding areas. The last few hours of the early January 2014 storm was very windy here with some Blizzard conditions but living in a very rural area it basically doesn't get reported as the major reporting stations aren't getting strong winds at all. Its always more windy in the country though. Hell I can be near DTW in a more open area than a few miles east in suburbia the wind feels way different. The last few hours of Jan 5, 2014 were very windy here. As has been said, the only true (by definition) blizzard in recent times at DTW was Jan 2, 1999. Many storms have periods of near whiteout conditions, but even then the wind is not blizzard criteria. As Powerball said Jan 22, 2005 was a favorite of his, and I can think of many storms that I experienced near whiteout conditions in blowing snow and brutal winds, but its not a blizzard. If you are outside in, say, heavy snow, near zero visibility, and 20-30mph winds which blow and drift the snow everywhere...it feels like a blizzard. But its not. Feb 1, 2011 did have blizzard conditions at 11pm with heavy snow, visib 0.1 mile, and wind gusting to 40mph. SPECI KDTW 020403Z 07023G35KT 1/8SM R04R/2000V6000FT +SN BLSN VV003 M08/M10 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 07035/0400 TWR VIS 3/4 PRESFR P0000 Feb 12, 2003 had blizzard conditions as well, as winds gusted near 60mph SPECI KDTW 120501Z 29026G49KT 1/4SM R03L/3500VP6000FT +SN BLSN BR BKN008 BKN029 OVC050 M06/M08 A2955 RMK AO2 PK WND 29049/0458 TWR VIS 4 PRESRR DRFTG SN P0000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Its always more windy in the country though. Hell I can be near DTW in a more open area than a few miles east in suburbia the wind feels way different. The last few hours of Jan 5, 2014 were very windy here. As has been said, the only true (by definition) blizzard in recent times at DTW was Jan 2, 1999. Many storms have periods of near whiteout conditions, but even then the wind is not blizzard criteria. As Powerball said Jan 22, 2005 was a favorite of his, and I can think of many storms that I experienced near whiteout conditions in blowing snow and brutal winds, but its not a blizzard. If you are outside in, say, heavy snow, near zero visibility, and 20-30mph winds which blow and drift the snow everywhere...it feels like a blizzard. But its not. Feb 1, 2011 did have blizzard conditions at 11pm with heavy snow, visib 0.1 mile, and wind gusting to 40mph. SPECI KDTW 020403Z 07023G35KT 1/8SM R04R/2000V6000FT +SN BLSN VV003 M08/M10 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 07035/0400 TWR VIS 3/4 PRESFR P0000 Feb 12, 2003 had blizzard conditions as well, as winds gusted near 60mph SPECI KDTW 120501Z 29026G49KT 1/4SM R03L/3500VP6000FT +SN BLSN BR BKN008 BKN029 OVC050 M06/M08 A2955 RMK AO2 PK WND 29049/0458 TWR VIS 4 PRESRR DRFTG SN P0000 I'll agree with your assessment for DTW. My point was in regard to those saying it about the entire area. I live in an area within SE MI that gets stronger winds commonly. I have been in Blizzard conditions while DTW or even FNT were not. What I find as cool/interesting is the HRRR is pretty darn good at seeing it. I believe it likely has a lot to do with elevation.I know it is more of a localized (mirco-climate) thing for some areas and not the norm for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I have been in Blizzard conditions while DTW or even FNT were not. What I find as cool/interesting is the HRRR is pretty darn good at seeing it. I believe it likely has a lot to do with elevation. So do you check wind gust speed on the HRRR? (or perhaps RAP or NAM) Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I'll agree with your assessment for DTW. My point was in regard to those saying it about the entire area. I live in an area within SE MI that gets stronger winds commonly. I have been in Blizzard conditions while DTW or even FNT were not. What I find as cool/interesting is the HRRR is pretty darn good at seeing it. I believe it likely has a lot to do with elevation. I know it is more of a localized (mirco-climate) thing for some areas and not the norm for most. Well, to be fair, I did say the Detroit area (as in the city proper and the immediate suburbs). It's a stretch to consider Fenton and Flint a part of the Detroit area (which I don't). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Its always more windy in the country though. Hell I can be near DTW in a more open area than a few miles east in suburbia the wind feels way different. The last few hours of Jan 5, 2014 were very windy here. As has been said, the only true (by definition) blizzard in recent times at DTW was Jan 2, 1999. Many storms have periods of near whiteout conditions, but even then the wind is not blizzard criteria. As Powerball said Jan 22, 2005 was a favorite of his, and I can think of many storms that I experienced near whiteout conditions in blowing snow and brutal winds, but its not a blizzard. If you are outside in, say, heavy snow, near zero visibility, and 20-30mph winds which blow and drift the snow everywhere...it feels like a blizzard. But its not. Feb 1, 2011 did have blizzard conditions at 11pm with heavy snow, visib 0.1 mile, and wind gusting to 40mph. SPECI KDTW 020403Z 07023G35KT 1/8SM R04R/2000V6000FT +SN BLSN VV003 M08/M10 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 07035/0400 TWR VIS 3/4 PRESFR P0000 Feb 12, 2003 had blizzard conditions as well, as winds gusted near 60mph SPECI KDTW 120501Z 29026G49KT 1/4SM R03L/3500VP6000FT +SN BLSN BR BKN008 BKN029 OVC050 M06/M08 A2955 RMK AO2 PK WND 29049/0458 TWR VIS 4 PRESRR DRFTG SN P0000 Looking at DTW and only DTW obs from January 2, 1999, you could argue that even that wasn't a blizzard at that specific location. Visibility certainly wasn't a problem but winds are borderline with most gusts under 35 mph (even when looking at PK WND in the METARs) http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDTW/1999/1/2/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Detroit+Metro+Wayne+County&req_state=MI&req_statename=Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Actually... 0 Blizzards: Lapeer/Ostego 1 Blizzard: Bay, Branch, Clare, Clinton, Genesee, Gratiot, Hillsdale, Ingham, Isabella, Jackson, Lenawee, Livingston, Macomb, Mecosta, Monroe, Montcalm, Newaygo, Oakland, Osceola, Saginaw, St. Joseph, Shiawassee, Washtenaw, Wayne Southeast and South-Central are pretty much blizzard free (except for January 2, 1999) 0 for Lapeer must be an error as GHD maps you see show it included when DTX pulled the trigger on the upgrade which in hindsight, they shouldn't have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 0 for Lapeer must be an error as GHD maps you see show it included when DTX pulled the trigger on the upgrade which in hindsight, they shouldn't have. To be fair, the trigger was pulled before the 11th hour NW shifts that "screwed" us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 0 for Lapeer must be an error as GHD maps you see show it included when DTX pulled the trigger on the upgrade which in hindsight, they shouldn't have. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/listevents.jsp?eventType=%28Z%29+Blizzard&beginDate_mm=01&beginDate_dd=01&beginDate_yyyy=1996&endDate_mm=08&endDate_dd=31&endDate_yyyy=2014&county=LAPEER&hailfilter=0.00&tornfilter=0&windfilter=000&sort=DT&submitbutton=Search&statefips=26%2CMICHIGAN There are no blizzards reported for Lapeer to the NCDC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 A few more stats: Blizzards based on ENSO phase (3 month ONI centered on the month the blizzard occurred in): La Nina - 15 La Nada - 11 El Nino - 4 Based on AO for the month the blizzard occurred in: Neg - 15 Pos - 15 Based on NAO for the month the blizzard occurred in: Neg - 14 Pos - 16 Based on PDO for the month the blizzard occurred in: Neg - 25 Pos - 5 Based on PNA for the month the blizzard occurred in: Neg - 14 Pos - 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 A few more stats: Blizzards based on ENSO phase (3 month ONI centered on the month the blizzard occurred in): La Nina - 15 La Nada - 11 El Nino - 4 Based on AO for the month the blizzard occurred in: Neg - 15 Pos - 15 Based on NAO for the month the blizzard occurred in: Neg - 14 Pos - 16 Based on PDO for the month the blizzard occurred in: Neg - 25 Pos - 5 Based on PNA for the month the blizzard occurred in: Neg - 14 Pos - 16 -PDO ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/listevents.jsp?eventType=%28Z%29+Blizzard&beginDate_mm=01&beginDate_dd=01&beginDate_yyyy=1996&endDate_mm=08&endDate_dd=31&endDate_yyyy=2014&county=LAPEER&hailfilter=0.00&tornfilter=0&windfilter=000&sort=DT&submitbutton=Search&statefips=26%2CMICHIGAN There are no blizzards reported for Lapeer to the NCDC. http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=WSWDTX&e=201102020013 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-020815-/O.CON.KDTX.BZ.W.0001.110202T0300Z-110202T1700Z/ MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE- LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE... SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER... PORT HURON...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN 713 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY... A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY. IMPACTS... * HEAVY SNOW...GUSTY WINDS...AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. * WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES OF ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS DUE TO INTENSE SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW. * QUICKLY ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL MAKE ROADS VERY HARD TO CLEAR. * UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY...SNOWPACKED...AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS. * HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 Blizzard warning =! Blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Blizzard warning =! Blizzard Sent from my iPhone With that said, I guess the question I have now is what criteria does the NCDC use to determine what it and is not a "blizzard event?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 With that said, I guess the question I have now is what criteria does the NCDC use to determine what it and is not a "blizzard event?" It's whatever is presented by the WCM from the NWSFOs in their storm data publication. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/details.jsp?type=eventtype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 So do you check wind gust speed on the HRRR? (or perhaps RAP or NAM) Just curious.Sorry I have been away a bit.I look at the 10 meter wind and the 10 meter wind gust forecast on the hourly HRRR forecast. It has been doing very good with these wind forecasts. It will show my area getting stronger winds then Flint and much stronger than DTW. The results have been fairly accurate. I am in the NE corner of Livingston county. I honestly have not been looking at the RAP or NAM for their specific wind forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Feb 12, 2003 had blizzard conditions as well, as winds gusted near 60mphSPECI KDTW 120501Z 29026G49KT 1/4SM R03L/3500VP6000FT +SN BLSN BR BKN008 BKN029 OVC050 M06/M08 A2955 RMK AO2 PK WND 29049/0458 TWR VIS 4 PRESRR DRFTG SN P0000 I remember that evening, that was wild. There wasn't even all that much snow in the end but the wind/snow combination was probably unlike anything I've ever seen here before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 I got the radar for that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Feb 12, 2003 had blizzard conditions as well, as winds gusted near 60mph SPECI KDTW 120501Z 29026G49KT 1/4SM R03L/3500VP6000FT +SN BLSN BR BKN008 BKN029 OVC050 M06/M08 A2955 RMK AO2 PK WND 29049/0458 TWR VIS 4 PRESRR DRFTG SN P0000 It's funny you mention this one, because it technically busted as far as snowfall amounts. Winter Weather Advisories were issued for 3-5" between I-94 and I-69 (downgraded later to 2-4" south of M-59), but most places outside the I-69 corridor only saw 1-2" total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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