Michigan Blizzards 1996-2013

[huronicane]

Using the NCDC Storm Events Database, I've identified 34 blizzard events¹ in Michigan between 1996 and 2013.

 

Blizzards have occurred in 81/83 Michigan counties -- only Lapeer and Ostego had zero.

 

Top blizzard counties:

 

1. Houghton/Keweenaw: 17

2. Alger: 15

3. Allegan/Huron/Luce/Marquette/Muskegon: 7

 

Blizzard types²:

 

LES: 8

Synoptic: 24

Ground Blizzard (followed by LES): 1

Synoptic-LES combo: 5

 

Year without blizzards: 2001

 

Most widespread blizzard: January 1999, 57/83 counties affected

 

Notes:

 

1. Anything listed in NCDC Storm Events Database as "Blizzard" from 1996-2013

2. Type defined in NCDC Storm Events Database narrative. Will have to better refine the type, because the current total adds up to 38, because in some cases, a synoptic storm would affect the LP while the UP would receive LES, or some other combination.

 

Going forward, I plan to put together composite maps for the different blizzard types, look at teleconnections, and develop an in-depth climatology for Michigan blizzard events.

[weatherbo]

I could use a good blow.

Look forward to your updates!

[Jonger]

Can you find a Warning map for the 1999 event?

 

Thankfully I was in Cheboygan county for that one, Howell only received 7 inches from the storm.

[huronicane]

Can you find a Warning map for the 1999 event?

 

Thankfully I was in Cheboygan county for that one, Howell only received 7 inches from the storm.

 

I'll see if I can dig something up. 

 

The IEM VTEC archive doesn't pull up any blizzard warnings in Michigan for 1999, and I can't recall if any were issued.

[RogueWaves]

Using the NCDC Storm Events Database, I've identified 34 blizzard events¹ in Michigan between 1996 and 2013.

 

Blizzards have occurred in 81/83 Michigan counties -- only Lapeer and Ostego had zero.

 

Top blizzard counties:

 

1. Houghton/Keweenaw: 17

2. Alger: 15

3. Allegan/Huron/Luce/Marquette/Muskegon: 7

 

Blizzard types²:

 

LES: 8

Synoptic: 24

Ground Blizzard (followed by LES): 1

Synoptic-LES combo: 5

 

Year without blizzards: 2001

 

Most widespread blizzard: January 1999, 57/83 counties affected

 

Notes:

 

1. Anything listed in NCDC Storm Events Database as "Blizzard" from 1996-2013

2. Type defined in NCDC Storm Events Database narrative. Will have to better refine the type, because the current total adds up to 38, because in some cases, a synoptic storm would affect the LP while the UP would receive LES, or some other combination.

 

Going forward, I plan to put together composite maps for the different blizzard types, look at teleconnections, and develop an in-depth climatology for Michigan blizzard events.

 

Nice work. Looking forward to more! (of your research, and the subject!)

[RogueWaves]

I'll see if I can dig something up. 

 

The IEM VTEC archive doesn't pull up any blizzard warnings in Michigan for 1999, and I can't recall if any were issued.

 

I was in the thumb which also got a lame 8", and I don't think any were issued that I recall seeing anyways. Not sure why, seems that even DTX/DTW refers to it as "the bliz of '99"??

[huronicane]

As a kind of added bonus, I plan on doing a lightning analysis for the Michigan blizzards too.

[Powerball]

I was in the thumb which also got a lame 8", and I don't think any were issued that I recall seeing anyways. Not sure why, seems that even DTX/DTW refers to it as "the bliz of '99"??

 

Funny, because I say the same thing about the GHD "blizzard." Huge disappointment to say the least.

 

But if you really want to get technical, since 1978, I'm not sure anyone in the Detroit area has experienced an official blizzard, other than the intermittent whiteouts in LES squalls or run-of-the-mill snowstorms.

[stormtrackertf]

I'll see if I can dig something up. 

 

The IEM VTEC archive doesn't pull up any blizzard warnings in Michigan for 1999, and I can't recall if any were issued.

There were definitely blizzard warnings in 1999. I remember on the morning of January 2nd, they played the EAS message for it on TV and it got me really hyped up. I had never been under a blizzard warning that I can remember until that day.

[TugHillMatt]

Sweet. I didn't realize I lived in such a "Blizzard" area.

[Whitelakeroy]

Funny, because I say the same thing about the GHD "blizzard." Huge disappointment to say the least.

 

But if you really want to get technical, since 1978, I'm not sure anyone in the Detroit area has experienced an official blizzard, other than the intermittent whiteouts in LES squalls or run-of-the-mill snowstorms.

That may be true for Wayne County but not the surrounding areas.

[Rainman]

I could use a good blow.

[snowstormcanuck]

Rainman and Bo should hook up.

[huronicane]

Funny, because I say the same thing about the GHD "blizzard." Huge disappointment to say the least.

 

But if you really want to get technical, since 1978, I'm not sure anyone in the Detroit area has experienced an official blizzard, other than the intermittent whiteouts in LES squalls or run-of-the-mill snowstorms.

 

Unfortunately for you, GHD and 1999 are considered "official blizzards".

 

I think that a lot of people expect a crippling, death to anyone who walks outside sort of event when they hear blizzard.

 

That's not always going to be the case. The definition of a blizzard (From NWS) is:

• Sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 miles an hour or greater; and
• Considerable falling and/or blowing snow (i.e., reducing visibility frequently to less than ¼ mile)

In the OKC Christmas Eve blizzard of 2009, much of the day had blizzard conditions (sustained winds were 25-35 miles per hour and the gusts were consistently 40-50 miles per hour) with heavy snow. I didn't feel unsafe or like my life was threatened, it was just a cold and white sort of day. 

 

If you're wanting the sort of blizzard where going outside is life threatening, might I suggest Antarctica?

[Hoosier]

Nice work.  I did something similar for my local area a while back and in marginal cases, it's not always easy to classify whether something was a blizzard as there's a bit of leeway in the official criteria (i.e. what exactly is "frequent gusts"?)

[Powerball]

Nice work.  I did something similar for my local area a while back and in marginal cases, it's not always easy to classify whether something was a blizzard as there's a bit of leeway in the official criteria (i.e. what exactly is "frequent gusts"?)

I thought it was like 35 MPH gusts every 3 hours or so as the minimum for blizzard criteria...

[Hoosier]

I thought it was like 35 MPH gusts every 3 hours or so as the minimum for blizzard criteria...

 

 

The 3 hour rule is the standard but how many such gusts qualify as a blizzard?  If you have a lot of SPECI/non-hourly obs in the 3 hour period that have sub 35 mph gusts, should that count?

[Powerball]

Unfortunately for you, GHD and 1999 are considered "official blizzards".

 

I think that a lot of people expect a crippling, death to anyone who walks outside sort of event when they hear blizzard.

 

That's not always going to be the case. The definition of a blizzard (From NWS) is:

• Sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 miles an hour or greater; and
• Considerable falling and/or blowing snow (i.e., reducing visibility frequently to less than ¼ mile)

In the OKC Christmas Eve blizzard of 2009, much of the day had blizzard conditions (sustained winds were 25-35 miles per hour and the gusts were consistently 40-50 miles per hour) with heavy snow. I didn't feel unsafe or like my life was threatened, it was just a cold and white sort of day. 

 

If you're wanting the sort of blizzard where going outside is life threatening, might I suggest Antarctica?

I'm not suggesting they weren't official blizzards since warnings were issued (maybe I used the wrong wording) but that they didn't produce blizzard-like condition to meet the criteria for the warnings issued, as the poster I responded seemed to imply that 1999 didn't *feel*like a blizzard. For example, I believe for either DTW or DET, sustained winds were only in the 15-20 MPH during the "height" and the peak wind gust was 36 MPH for GHD only once.

And they do happen in the lower 48 (like in Illinios and Wisconsin during GHD), but they just happen in some parts of the lower 48 more often than others.

[Powerball]

The 3 hour rule is the standard but how many such gusts qualify as a blizzard? If you have a lot of SPECI/non-hourly obs in the 3 hour period that have sub 35 mph gusts, should that count?[/quo

There's also the consideration of visibilities combined with the winds, if they're also 1/4 of a mile or less for the same standard length of time.

Either way, while there's no 100% precise way to qualify it (since weather's not an exact science), IMO it's pretty safe to say that when there's, say, only a 35+ MPH gust every 6-8 hours and visibilities only occasionally dipping to or below 1/4 miles, it's not a Blizzard and if a Blizzard Warning was issued, it technically busted.

[michsnowfreak]

A snowstorm can dump 3 feet of snow and not be a blizzard, or you can have a blizzard with 1" of snow. Blizzard is all about the wind/visibility.

[RogueWaves]

Funny, because I say the same thing about the GHD "blizzard." Huge disappointment to say the least.

 

But if you really want to get technical, since 1978, I'm not sure anyone in the Detroit area has experienced an official blizzard, other than the intermittent whiteouts in LES squalls or run-of-the-mill snowstorms.

 

MiSnFreak had posted before that during the height of Jan '99 storm, DTW recorded 1/8SM or LESS for several hours. So, I feel safe saying that one qualified. I think it may have even been about 19*F which would make it a true bliz by the "old school" definition of Vis/Winds/Temps combo. Though I highly doubt GHD made any of those criteria in Detroit proper.

 

There were definitely blizzard warnings in 1999. I remember on the morning of January 2nd, they played the EAS message for it on TV and it got me really hyped up. I had never been under a blizzard warning that I can remember until that day.

 

Glad to hear that. Confirms my response above. Always nice to see/hear those statements, especially when they actually VERIFY

 

I'm not suggesting they weren't official blizzards since warnings were issued (maybe I used the wrong wording) but that they didn't produce blizzard-like condition to meet the criteria for the warnings issued, as the poster I responded seemed to imply that 1999 didn't *feel*like a blizzard. For example, I believe for either DTW or DET, sustained winds were only in the 15-20 MPH during the "height" and the peak wind gust was 36 MPH for GHD only once.

And they do happen in the lower 48 (like in Illinios and Wisconsin during GHD), but they just happen in some parts of the lower 48 more often than others.

 

SEMI = least likely place in all of Michigan (or midwest for that matter) to score the bliz. Was actually very surprised that Huronicane's list was as big as it was. Although I've lived & worked around SWMI since '97 and can confirm true bliz conditions during the following: March '98, Jan '99, Dec '00, Feb '11, and other various more local (1 or a few counties) mixed in during those years. Some of our arctic front/clippers events could've qualified last winter too but were never upgraded.

[michsnowfreak]

MiSnFreak had posted before that during the height of Jan '99 storm, DTW recorded 1/8SM or LESS for several hours. So, I feel safe saying that one qualified. I think it may have even been about 19*F which would make it a true bliz by the "old school" definition of Vis/Winds/Temps combo. Though I highly doubt GHD made any of those criteria in Detroit proper.

 

 

Glad to hear that. Confirms my response above. Always nice to see/hear those statements, especially when they actually VERIFY

 

 

SEMI = least likely place in all of Michigan (or midwest for that matter) to score the bliz. Was actually very surprised that Huronicane's list was as big as it was. Although I've lived & worked around SWMI since '97 and can confirm true bliz conditions during the following: March '98, Jan '99, Dec '00, Feb '11, and other various more local (1 or a few counties) mixed in during those years. Some of our arctic front/clippers events could've qualified last winter too but were never upgraded.

99% of the public (and many on this board as well) would think a wind-driven snowstorm is a blizzard when it technically isn't. Its just the way it goes. Detroit has had blizzard conditions many times....it all boils down to sustained for 3 hours+. True blizzards by technical definition are extremely rare throughout this region; on the contrary blizzard conditions during a winter storm are quite common in this region, and will be seen during most winters.

[huronicane]

 

SEMI = least likely place in all of Michigan (or midwest for that matter) to score the bliz. Was actually very surprised that Huronicane's list was as big as it was. Although I've lived & worked around SWMI since '97 and can confirm true bliz conditions during the following: March '98, Jan '99, Dec '00, Feb '11, and other various more local (1 or a few counties) mixed in during those years. Some of our arctic front/clippers events could've qualified last winter too but were never upgraded.

 

Actually...

 

0 Blizzards: Lapeer/Ostego

1 Blizzard: Bay, Branch, Clare, Clinton, Genesee, Gratiot, Hillsdale, Ingham, Isabella, Jackson, Lenawee, Livingston, Macomb, Mecosta, Monroe, Montcalm, Newaygo, Oakland, Osceola, Saginaw, St. Joseph, Shiawassee, Washtenaw, Wayne

 

Southeast and South-Central are pretty much blizzard free (except for January 2, 1999)

[huronicane]

99% of the public (and many on this board as well) would think a wind-driven snowstorm is a blizzard when it technically isn't. Its just the way it goes. Detroit has had blizzard conditions many times....it all boils down to sustained for 3 hours+. True blizzards by technical definition are extremely rare throughout this region; on the contrary blizzard conditions during a winter storm are quite common in this region, and will be seen during most winters.

 

From: Robert M. Schwartz and Thomas W. Schmidlin, 2002: Climatology of Blizzards in the Conterminous United States, 1959–2000. J. Climate, 15, 1765–1772.

 

 

If you're not in CO, KS, NE, WY, ND, SD, MN, IA...you're not in the top tier of blizzard states

[RogueWaves]

Actually...

 

0 Blizzards: Lapeer/Ostego

1 Blizzard: Bay, Branch, Clare, Clinton, Genesee, Gratiot, Hillsdale, Ingham, Isabella, Jackson, Lenawee, Livingston, Macomb, Mecosta, Monroe, Montcalm, Newaygo, Oakland, Osceola, Saginaw, St. Joseph, Shiawassee, Washtenaw, Wayne

 

Southeast and South-Central are pretty much blizzard free (except for January 2, 1999)

 

I'm in South-Central, and we were under an official Bliz Warning for GHD, and it verified, just not nearly to the degree that was hyped leading up to the storm..

[RogueWaves]

99% of the public (and many on this board as well) would think a wind-driven snowstorm is a blizzard when it technically isn't. Its just the way it goes. Detroit has had blizzard conditions many times....it all boils down to sustained for 3 hours+. True blizzards by technical definition are extremely rare throughout this region; on the contrary blizzard conditions during a winter storm are quite common in this region, and will be seen during most winters.

 

That!

 

I think the other storm that probably COULD have qualified was the Jan 2005 super-clipper. That was probably worse in Detroit proper than GHD. That one had winds, cold, and 12-14" totals all along the I-94 corridor and in my opinion deserved a Bliz Warning.

[Stebo]

The thing about blizzard warning and blizzard conditions or near blizzard conditions is that a blizzard warning has an exact definition. Per NWS glossary you get this definition:

 

Blizzard Warning Issued for winter storms with sustained or frequent winds of 35 mph or higher with considerable falling and/or blowing snow that frequently reduces visibility to 1/4 of a mile or less. These conditions are expected to prevail for a minimum of 3 hours.

 

You can have near blizzard conditions in a normal winter storm, but usually the issue with actually being a blizzard is the winds tend to not be 35mph+ or if they are they don't last for 3 hours or more.

[RogueWaves]

The thing about blizzard warning and blizzard conditions or near blizzard conditions is that a blizzard warning has an exact definition. Per NWS glossary you get this definition:

 

Blizzard Warning Issued for winter storms with sustained or frequent winds of 35 mph or higher with considerable falling and/or blowing snow that frequently reduces visibility to 1/4 of a mile or less. These conditions are expected to prevail for a minimum of 3 hours.

 

You can have near blizzard conditions in a normal winter storm, but usually the issue with actually being a blizzard is the winds tend to not be 35mph+ or if they are they don't last for 3 hours or more.

 

Yeah, good point there. Not sure the Jan '05 storm had that high of winds tbh.

[Chinook]

January 22, 2005. Winds were about 12 -13 mph at KDTW when snow was falling heavily. That was a fun one. I remember it well. Gusts to 27kt (30mph) when snow was light, so that is not really that close to a true blizzard at KDTW.

---

KDTW 1415 10 9 92 30 12 964 0.2 2 OVC S+ 

---

SPECI KDTW 221415Z 03012KT 1/4SM R03L/1400V3000FT +SN FZFG OVC002 M12/M13 A2964 RMK AO2 P0001

--

KDTW 221754Z 36018G27KT 1SM R03L/2200V5500FT -SN BR VV006 M09/M12 A2970 RMK AO2 PK WND 01027/1747 TWR VIS 1 1/2 SLP068 4/007 933004 P0000 60013 T10941117 11094 21117 50020 $

[Whitelakeroy]

I have noticed it will be very windy here but not Flint or Detroit. The HRRR has actually been good at showing this in it's forecasts. Just the other day we were getting some late evening winds here 20-25mph with gusts up to 35mph. Flint had winds around 10-15mph and DTW reported winds of 5 mph. I looked at the HRRR and it had nailed it in the winds forecast. I have noticed this quite a bit here that it is windy compared to surrounding areas.

The last few hours of the early January 2014 storm was very windy here with some Blizzard conditions but living in a very rural area it basically doesn't get reported as the major reporting stations aren't getting strong winds at all.