Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 nice pattern setup with the weekend. more cold would help. Not too much though or we get suppression like some models had the past few days. Its really a thread-the-needle event once again for a lot of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Para xbox GFS joins the euro sort of. Closer to the coast and warmer for the coastal plain, doesn't cut east like the euro. Canadian almost joins the club with a storm just outside the benchmark. UKMET pretty much on board Sleepless nights ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Para xbox GFS joins the euro sort of. Closer to the coast and warmer for the coastal plain, doesn't cut east like the euro. Canadian almost joins the club with a storm just outside the benchmark. UKMET pretty much on board Sleepless nights ahead UKMET a cutter and would flood us with warmth, primary over PIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Other models are trending more toward the ECMWF. Old GFS is still garbage, new one is coming around along with the CMC. Any doubts should be gone about a storm. Main concern is this tracks up the west slopes of the apps wich floods us with mild air. Several EC ensemble members and the UKMET support this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 ABOUT THE HUGE SHIFT IN THE 12Z CMC FROM THE 0Z CMCOne of the really big rules that needs to be followed in the weather business ( especially we are forecasting in the medium range) is the **RULE OF 1 SOLUTION*** .Let's say you have five different weather models and all 5 are showing something different. Model A is you a big snowstorm....Model B gives you small snowstorm...... Model C gives you rain... and Model D gives you no precip at all and MODEL E says sunny. For those who do not know the ways of science this can seem all too confusing. But when you have a situation where the other weather models begin to move towards ONE particular solution -- in this case MODEL A... it is often very significant that the original solution that has been showing up for last several model runs by MODEL A ....is far more likely to end up being correct.In this particular case this is exactly was going on with the midday Canadian here. Typically there are some forecasters and weather hobbyists that will fight this trend and say well it doesn't mean much.. Or they will make the argument that that still does not prove the European solution is going to be correct. However those making such an argument are simply telling me that have no idea what they are doing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 THE 12Z EURO IS south BECAUSE at 126 hrs the 12z euro STILL has the 50/ 50 Low in place over se canada... that in turn forces southern Low to stay More south great for dt LAND.. but I think this is wrong...I dont think the 50/50 low will stay there THAT long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Shades of the 2009-10 southern crushers on the 12z euro. 50/50 confluence keeping things south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I think this EC run was actually a good sign. Stops momentum for the cutter solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 yup, euro still looking good at this point, nail biting pending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 I dont see how there was or is any Momentum at all for cutter solution I think this EC run was actually a good sign. Stops momentum for the cutter solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 as I said the 12z op ECWMF was bs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I dont see how there was or is any Momentum at all for cutter solution 12z UKMET has the primary going to PIT, several ensemble members going with that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 0z model runs so far before the euro It's raining weenies off the Brooklyn bridge in the NYC thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 South and OTS?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 FROM LAST WINTER... FROM FEB 6 ...six days out Guess which model was the ECMF ones which one was the GFS ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 FROM LAST WINTER... FROM FEB 6 ...six days out Guess which model was the ECMF ones which one was the GFS ? Nice Euro owned that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Let's hope the 0z Euro ensembles are better than the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMB78 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Let's hope the 0z Euro ensembles are better than the OP and for better trends tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 At the moment the trend does not appear to be our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 guys if you think this is a MISS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 PGFS is not a hit for our area but close to one of the ECM southeast ensemble members. I would give it another 36hrs to come on board if it performs like previous storms this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMB78 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 How has pgfs performed compared to gfs in its short time around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 How has pgfs performed compared to gfs in its short time around? From the model scorecard I have seen it's been up and down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 One thing I'm watching is if the first shortwave coming out of the plains Thursday is stronger and as a result the weekend storm is weaker. Large difference between old and new GFS. The Old has a primary which makes it up to BGM while the new is a decent track. Still thinking NW trend on average and not ruling out primary to PIT, good news with that is many of the EC ensemble members that had a northern primary don't have it anymore making it more unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMB78 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Canadian weaker and farther se than 0z but has a 985 right off toms river Christmas Eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 ECM ensembles still the best looking for this storm but a tad weaker at 12z. Confidence eroding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 would love a fresh 1-2" coating sunday with 3" lollipops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 would love a fresh 1-2" coating sunday with 3" lollipops I'll second that....snowing Saturday evening/night would be fine as well. For me at this point it's more about having a snow event, even if a modest one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMB78 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I'll second that....snowing Saturday evening/night would be fine as well. For me at this point it's more about having a snow event, even if a modest one. I'll third that...any snow on the ground this time of year is a win. Plenty of time for some big ones. Even some time for this to come around to something more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Looking like 4th down and 20 on this storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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