DTWXRISK Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/winter-is-over-not/787096241337636 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 MORE ON THE COMING PATTERN CHANGE ... glad to see WES is a board....i have been talking about the dec 22-26 change for over a week now so the TREND IS MY FRIEND One of the reasons why I am not particularly bullish about the event /threat for December 21 is that the overall pattern on a hemispheric scale ...is not very favorable. Yes the models DO show what appears to be cold HIGH in a pretty good set up ...at least for the beginning of the event. The problem is that the flow at 500 mb across Canada is Pacific and ZONAL ....and has no arctic connection. Thus the HIGH is NOT very cold and has to be the perfect ideal position when the coastal Low begins in order to keep some the precip snow. The only reason why this is potential threat to begin with is the development of the big ocean Low over southeastern Canada (the 50/50 LOW)The NAO is strongly positive which along with the Pacific pattern strongly interdicts the supply of cold air into the Northeast US. But beyond the December 21 event... If we use the overall hemispheric pattern as a starting point we can truly see some significant changes taking place across the hemisphere by DEC 25. Here is the 324 hrs EURO EPS MEAN.... It shows several important tihngs... many of which are self explanatory The 5 days CFS from from the website tropicaltidbits web site has been showing this for while.... and increasingly amplified +PNA and -EPO pattern . Now the euro ensembles are showing this as well. see image The one thing that should be noted is that we do not on this map yet see a -NAO and the PV is still very far to the north over Baffin island. here is the week 3 and 4 500 mb on anomaly maps from CPC. I have drawn in some key features for ease of comprehension. The cfs clearly indicates that the pattern amplification is going to really picked up speed In week 3 and week 4 . The -EPO goes absolutely ballistic in week4 and strongly resembles what we saw last January But again ...even though there IS a -AO we do not have -NAO.. Yet Here is why. Next week as the zonal flow across Canada begins to amplify it will take on the WIDE and BROAD shape. We can all see that. Because of this ...the PV is forced to over to Baffin Island in far Northeast Canada . This in turn means any RIDGE is forced over iceland or the uK or Norway ...and the NAO is either positive or neutral. BUT as the western Canada ridge amplifies ... it will get pulled WEST because of the --EPO development. This will cause western Canada ridge to shaprens up ....which in turn will allow he PV to shift SW into Hudson's bay And THAT that in turn will allow the NAO to go Negative in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Thank you for your contribution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Nothing calls the Pacific like the JMA- IIRC they were the only ones who were even close last year- and there doesn't seem to be much doubt that whatever we call it (Nino, non-Nino, mild, modoki, etc.), the placid puddle is calling the shots in NA this winter. Here's an analysis of their JFM, which is also carrying a good correspondence with the CFS as well; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLeKt4yjHgw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 How's that trend going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 How's that trend going? Trending the wrong way. But don't worry; soon we'll be trending back and so on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Today. Southeast ridge is a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 ^ I don't remember anyone placing a particular emphasis on the SE ridge being a problem this winter or the atmosphere acting like a Nina, in general. Unfortunate the way things have turned out so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Correct. Forcing-wise we are la Nina-like. It's all been the Indian Ocean over to the maritime continent. No reason for that to change. Pretty bad for the mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 THIS WAS A TOTAL AND COMPLETE BUST .... MORE ON THE COMING PATTERN CHANGE ... glad to see WES is a board....i have been talking about the dec 22-26 change for over a week now so the TREND IS MY FRIEND One of the reasons why I am not particularly bullish about the event /threat for December 21 is that the overall pattern on a hemispheric scale ...is not very favorable. Yes the models DO show what appears to be cold HIGH in a pretty good set up ...at least for the beginning of the event. The problem is that the flow at 500 mb across Canada is Pacific and ZONAL ....and has no arctic connection. Thus the HIGH is NOT very cold and has to be the perfect ideal position when the coastal Low begins in order to keep some the precip snow. The only reason why this is potential threat to begin with is the development of the big ocean Low over southeastern Canada (the 50/50 LOW)The NAO is strongly positive which along with the Pacific pattern strongly interdicts the supply of cold air into the Northeast US. But beyond the December 21 event... If we use the overall hemispheric pattern as a starting point we can truly see some significant changes taking place across the hemisphere by DEC 25. Here is the 324 hrs EURO EPS MEAN.... It shows several important tihngs... many of which are self explanatory ECMWF-EPS_500mbHgtanom_nhem_f324.png The 5 days CFS from from the website tropicaltidbits web site has been showing this for while.... and increasingly amplified +PNA and -EPO pattern . Now the euro ensembles are showing this as well. see image The one thing that should be noted is that we do not on this map yet see a -NAO and the PV is still very far to the north over Baffin island. here is the week 3 and 4 500 mb on anomaly maps from CPC. I have drawn in some key features for ease of comprehension. The cfs clearly indicates that the pattern amplification is going to really picked up speed In week 3 and week 4 . The -EPO goes absolutely ballistic in week4 and strongly resembles what we saw last January CFS500WEEK34.jpg But again ...even though there IS a -AO we do not have -NAO.. Yet Here is why. Next week as the zonal flow across Canada begins to amplify it will take on the WIDE and BROAD shape. We can all see that. Because of this ...the PV is forced to over to Baffin Island in far Northeast Canada . This in turn means any RIDGE is forced over iceland or the uK or Norway ...and the NAO is either positive or neutral. BUT as the western Canada ridge amplifies ... it will get pulled WEST because of the --EPO development. This will cause western Canada ridge to shaprens up ....which in turn will allow he PV to shift SW into Hudson's bay And THAT that in turn will allow the NAO to go Negative in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 THIS WAS A TOTAL AND COMPLETE BUST .... Well, at least we are only near halftime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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