DTWXRISK Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 This has been going on for weeks and it has become so bad that it is actually impacting grain prices... brazil is the world's 2nd largest ..or now tied with the USA as the world's biggest Soybean producer in the 12z Tuesday GFS for the 6-10 day the model drops over 8" of rain in central brazil... whch in a El Nino summer is Typically drier than Normal in the 2nd image the 12z Tuesday GFS drops 12"+ of rain over eastern Mato Grosso in west central brazil ..in a 5 day period. the 12z GFS 13km model run is somewhat more reasonable. The 12 z CMC has the rains much further south and shows small blobs of 5" rains in the 6-10 day . The 12z european has more rain in central Brazil with many 3-4" rains area. with excellent coverage... but nothing like 8-9" or 12" rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I have no idea why people are looking for a 'typical' El Nino when the basin wide temps- hi and mid water- are all in flux from trad. norms...look at the cold plume coming off central Japan and wonder- what ARE we really seeing? Way too soon to worry re: SA soy btw- this is just hot money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 What are your thoughts DT on the EURO busting ? the beloved euro model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 LOL in what way dud it bust? This weenie BS I gotta hear... What are your thoughts DT on the EURO busting ? the beloved euro model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 Wait...are you arguing the atmosphere is NOT in a el nino state? they have hats and mittens hats here in the general store way in the back I have no idea why people are looking for a 'typical' El Nino when the basin wide temps- hi and mid water- are all in flux from trad. norms...look at the cold plume coming off central Japan and wonder- what ARE we really seeing? Way too soon to worry re: SA soy btw- this is just hot money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 LOL in what way dud it bust? This weenie BS I gotta hear... First off, the snow it showed in central/northern Pa didn't really happen, the rain amounts were to much didnt account for the dry slot. Also the low in reality was like 75-100 miles east of the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 DUDE really? WOW your argument is pitiful weenies dont grasp there is a difference between getting some portion of the event wrong vs BUSTING. It is clear you are one of these kind of folks. all models get something wrong especially on east coast Low which are big and complex .That is NOT the same thing as busting . BUSTING for example would be the feb 12-13, 2014 Big east coast Low which dropped 14-20" over VA piedmont the Shenandoah valley and into central MD. The euro showed that Low.. showed that amount of snow 7.5 days out while the GFS hs clear skies and some rain over northern FL. or the GFS awful performance NOV 26 when many in NYC and others ( inCluding NWS OKX) were CERTAIN that the GFS was going to trump the Euro and several inches of snow was likely for NYC With regard to this event more than 7 days ago the EURO was the ONLY made which had this low and showed it and was nearly perfect. 2nd the snow in central Northern PA issue has not been decided yet.. the euro nailed the rain amounts perfectly and the Low is within 40 miles of he euro from 5 5 .5 and 6 days ago First off, the snow it showed in central/northern Pa didn't really happen, the rain amounts were to much didnt account for the dry slot. Also the low in reality was like 75-100 miles east of the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 DUDE really? WOW your argument is pitiful weenies dont grasp there is a difference between getting some portion of the event wrong vs BUSTING. It is clear you are one of these kind of folks. all models get something wrong especially on east coast Low which are big and complex . That is NOT the same thing as busting . BUSTING for example would be the feb 12-13, 2014 Big east coast Low which dropped 14-20" over VA piedmont the Shenandoah valley and into central MD. The euro showed that Low.. showed that amount of snow 7.5 days out while the GFS hs clear skies and some rain over northern FL. or the GFS awful performance NOV 26 when many in NYC and others ( inCluding NWS OKX) were CERTAIN that the GFS was going to trump the Euro and several inches of snow was likely for NYC With regard to this event more than 7 days ago the EURO was the ONLY made which had this low and showed it and was nearly perfect. 2nd the snow in central Northern PA issue has not been decided yet.. the euro nailed the rain amounts perfectly and the Low is within 40 miles of he euro from 5 5 .5 and 6 days ago What ? Everyone posting in the PA sub forum are reporting TOTALS MUCH MUCH lower than expected from the EUro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 What ? Everyone posting in the PA sub forum are reporting TOTALS MUCH MUCH lower than expected from the EUro. TeleConnectSnow, Where the ECMWF did badly relative to the GFS was the 2/9 0z cycle. For the medium-term (the timeframe Dave is talking about regarding Brazil), the ECMWF was well ahead of the GFS in suggesting the potential for a high-impact nor'easter. In short, one run of the ECMWF did badly, not most or all of its runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 i suspect everyone there was using snow maps from wxbell euro model right ? What ? Everyone posting in the PA sub forum are reporting TOTALS MUCH MUCH lower than expected from the EUro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 i suspect everyone there was using snow maps from wxbell euro model right ? I'm talking about the rain. Not snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I will say my rainfall amounts are pretty low compared to most models, only .56 in Lancaster, Pa. At least I wasn't expecting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Wait...are you arguing the atmosphere is NOT in a el nino state? DT, There are some typical el Nino features such as the enhanced Pac jet, but regarding the greater global atmosphere, I have noticed that from an angular momentum standpoint there has been nothing that screams el Nino. Not arguing, just something that I have observed and thought I'd throw it out there. Do you have any thoughts on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 No wonder anacondas are refusing to eat people alive. They probably figure with those rainfall amounts, the dude is just going to drown anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 i suspect everyone there was using snow maps from wxbell euro model right ? I use MDA/Earthsat Euro maps and they were horrible because they were way too high in much of the SE US. This problem is not just a WxBell problem or Earthsat problem. This problem lies at the source, ECMWF, which doesn't differentiate between different types of precip. when it is 32 or lower. It is all counted as accumulating SN even if, say it is ZR! The GFS doesn't have this problem at all/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 11, 2014 Author Share Posted December 11, 2014 true but its NOT moderate or strong el nine either DT,There are some typical el Nino features such as the enhanced Pac jet, but regarding the greater global atmosphere, I have noticed that from an angular momentum standpoint there has been nothing that screams el Nino. Not arguing, just something that I have observed and thought I'd throw it out there. Do you have any thoughts on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 11, 2014 Author Share Posted December 11, 2014 how about this 2nd and 3rd round of PA snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 i hear it rains a lot in and around the amazon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Is it me or the plots in the OP goofy? An area 20N-45S, 20W-90W covers all of S. America plus plenty of ocean on both sides. The plots show a much smaller region than depicted in the lat/lon on the edges. Throw 'em out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 i hear it rains a lot in and around the amazon I heard from jshetley that he wished he lived there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I heard from jshetley that he wished he lived there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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