MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 0z runs were nothing short of entertaining tonight. GGEM, GFS, UKMET and NAM were all pretty snowy looking tonight. Hopefully it's a start to a sweet, backloaded winter. We shall see. 26/25 at Millersville. I'm going with CTP on the 2-4" mark for here. I like Mapgirl and 83 Blizzard for the jackpot where the best banding structure sets up along with elevation. Nice vort pass for the LSV. Enjoy the snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Euro is basically the same damn thing every big storm has been for the last few years. Sigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 0z European comes NW with the precip shield some. In fact it's QPF placement hours 84 & 90 in PA is literally about the same as the GFS. Low placement/pretty similar too. I guess that's an improvement in the model dept... usually takes till about T-36 to 48hrs to get those two near each other. GFS ensemble mean very supportive of the op as well. With the Canadian right in the mix (similar precip shield placement but higher QPF) and the NAM setting the edge at the moment as a western outlier.. it makes a good compromise to state that the potential for at least a light to moderate snowfall below the turnpike and a light snowfall in between the turnpike and I-80 and east of I-81 is becoming more probable. Euro ensemble should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 MAG is there any chance of a good event instead of the same old big cities getting nailed while we're left scraping for flurries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 MAG is there any chance of a good event instead of the same old big cities getting nailed while we're left scraping for flurries? I think we're well in the game for a decent event, especially in the Sus Valley.. but I can see the JST/AOO/UNV as well as up into your neck of the woods getting into the action too. Model trends overall between 12z Tuesday and 0z Wednesday were distinctly toward more of a coastal hugger. The fade to the benchmark hurt the precip's charge into PA (sans the 0z NAM) and gives the glancing blow. Need a bit of a quicker progression to more of a negatively tilted trough which may be hard to do in time for us until its heading towards New England given the positively oriented ridge out west and a lack of + height anomalies downstream northeast of New England. That's my take on it anyways, that the northern stream energy doesn't really get to phase and bomb the storm out until the storm is heading to 40/70. The key could be the expanse of the precip shield itself, and also if the energy digs just a little bit more to lift the storm out of the Gulf faster. The Euro and GFS could also be short-changing the precip shield a bit given it's gulf origins. There's still plenty of time for this to shake out, we're still out 72-84 hours. In the meantime, it's time to embrace what's on our doorstep, and CTP just solidly bumped up their totals region-wide and expanded advisories... a hat-tip to possible higher snow ratios given temps looking a bit colder. Snow-growth has been noted in previous discussions that it should be good.. with surface temperatures being the hinderance to good ratios. If we end up 28-30 degrees instead of 32-33.. that's gonna make a difference. Also, early looks at the HRRR overnight show some pretty heavy echoes traversing the state. Has the look of a 4-8 hour hard hitter, something to keep in mind if one is traveling today. CTP updated map for posterity...bring it!: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Just had a fairly harrowing drive up from carlisle. My grandmother's on hospice care as of yesterday so we were doing some paperwork. 81/581 were fine but 32nd, Harvey Taylor and city streets are icey., Also driving down we saw a car in the median of 81 right near 114. It was flipped upside down on the other side of a guardrail. How the hell is that possible for a one car accident? Sorry to hear of your Grandmother..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Commence flurries here right with arrival of precip echoes overhead. Temp around 25.. I was just checking meso obs and saw alot of the stations around State College in the upper teens. That should bode well for snow ratios. Just had a fairly harrowing drive up from carlisle. My grandmother's on hospice care as of yesterday so we were doing some paperwork. 81/581 were fine but 32nd, Harvey Taylor and city streets are icey.,Also driving down we saw a car in the median of 81 right near 114. It was flipped upside down on the other side of a guardrail. How the hell is that possible for a one car accident? Sorry to hear of your grandmother canderson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 DC meltdown in progress, hilarious to watch. Forecast was for 1" - 3" of snow and it's partly sunny right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Commence flurries here right with arrival of precip echoes overhead. Temp around 25.. I was just checking meso obs and saw alot of the stations around State College in the upper teens. That should bode well for snow ratios. The 06z NAM has the greatest lift below the dendritic growth zone during the first few hours of precip at UNV. Between 18-20z, the best lift becomes more aligned within the DGZ, which should produce lower-density aggregates (higher ratio snow) than earlier in the day. The 11z RAP has this favorable snow growth beginning earlier, around 15z, and continuing to 19z. This scenario would lead to better snow-liquid ratios. Interestingly, you can already see some modestly enhanced ZDR between 100 and 150 km of the KCCX radar. That corresponds to between 3 and 4 km above the ground, where the DGZ is present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Doesn't look to bad for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The 06z NAM has the greatest lift below the dendritic growth zone during the first few hours of precip at UNV. Between 18-20z, the best lift becomes more aligned within the DGZ, which should produce lower-density aggregates (higher ratio snow) than earlier in the day. The 11z RAP has this favorable snow growth beginning earlier, around 15z, and continuing to 19z. This scenario would lead to better snow-liquid ratios. Screenshot from 2015-01-21 07:53:06.png Interestingly, you can already see some modestly enhanced ZDR between 100 and 150 km of the KCCX radar. That corresponds to between 3 and 4 km above the ground, where the DGZ is present. 20150121_12:29_0.5.png Some pretty cool stuff right there, how does one attain that BUFKIT program? Or are you using the computers at Walker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Some pretty cool stuff right there, how does one attain that BUFKIT program? Or are you using the computers at Walker? BUFKIT runs on windows but you can also run it on linux using wine. It's definitely a useful program for viewing higher-res model sounding data. http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/BUFKIT/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Still only 21° here in Bellefonte, cold enough there is some steam coming off the spring pond on the office property. With the clouds thickening nicely, we should be in good shape for temperatures today. Looking forward to a nice daytime snowfall. Also very glad I only have a 1 mile commute back into town this afternoon! EDIT: First flakes reaching the ground as of 9:25AM...should be very light for the next hour or so, then it looks like things should pick up...radar is looking better and better to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 For the weekend storm, I'm still expecting big model shifts until that last piece reaches North America tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Steady flurries/very light snow here. Glad to see us looking at cooler than expected temps up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 For the weekend storm, I'm still expecting big model shifts until that last piece reaches North America tomorrow morning. Yup...00z Friday will be a tell all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 For the weekend storm, I'm still expecting big model shifts until that last piece reaches North America tomorrow morning. or the NAM holds and creates unnecessary early hype lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 or the NAM holds and creates unnecessary early hype lol It's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 or the NAM holds and creates unnecessary early hype lol Are you at home, or work? If at home, whats your temp? i was just told its 24 at home, which i don't beleive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Are you at home, or work? If at home, whats your temp? i was just told its 24 at home, which i don't beleive. work so not sure what temp is but was warmer than 24 when I left the house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 estimating 1" of snow so far 28f mod snow things are off to a fast start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 work so not sure what temp is but was warmer than 24 when I left the house thats exactly what i said.. Snow now in Harrisburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Snowing at the Capitol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Coming down nicely now, pretty much immediate coverage on all surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Heaviest rate yet here now with large flakes. I'd say at least 0.5"/hr or even a little greater. Have 0.3" accumulation so far. Temp 28.7. Looks great outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Flurries in stinky spring grove Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Flurries in stinky spring grove LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 sunny here in Wilkes-Barre (PARTLY SUNNY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 From the Mid Atlantic forum. A good trend for C-PA folks, but I would celebrate until we see that lovely steel blue appear on the NWS website. Last night's euro ensembles had a small but notable shift colder with the mean 850 0c line @ 12z Sat. Yesterday's 12z run had the line running the VA/WV border up through HGR. 0z has it running the BR through FDK. Goes along with losing some of the western outlier tracks. MSLP plot is very tight with an equal mix of lows just inside and outside OBX. mslp.JPG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Every other model is east of that with a thin precip shield...you know, like almost everything big that has come up the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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