Itunis Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Coming down at a decent rate now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Enjoy the pre game today everyone in CPA. Tomorrow looks like more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I am hearing all about the 12z Euro run this weekend in the MA and NYC sub forums seems to come more west again. Any insights for this region? Are we still fringed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The low in the great lakes and a marginal airmass with retreating high pressure are big red flags for the possible weekend coastal. If the storm winds up too much most of PA will be flooded with warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Big fluffy flakes here...snow globe stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Beginning to taper down a bit here now. Looks like here in State College, we'll probably have a total of around 0.5"-1" or so when all is said and done. Based on the radar, I would guess that a few areas further south (maybe like Belleville-Lewistown) will end up with over 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Big fluffy flakes here...snow globe stuff. I love those kind of snows. They are really peaceful. Also better when snow is on the ground too. The low in the great lakes and a marginal airmass with retreating high pressure are big red flags for the possible weekend coastal. If the storm winds up too much most of PA will be flooded with warm air. That low over the Great Lakes has been the Achilles heel to many a storm in the past. I'm always hesitant to forecast anything substantial in light of seeing that depicted on a model. It truly is a thread the needle event for many of us in the sub-forum. I still want to get past tomorrow before putting any more attention that is warranted for this weekend. Eric Horst always told me to focus on what's in front of you, but monitor what's down the road. Looks like an exciting period the next 7-10 days. Haven't had one of those in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The low in the great lakes and a marginal airmass with retreating high pressure are big red flags for the possible weekend coastal. If the storm winds up too much most of PA will be flooded with warm air. Let's get into the precip first...as of right now we're too far west for anything more than a few flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteo Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'm nearing an inch here in Altoona....still coming down but not as heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nice wet aggregates. I saw some oblate ones that were spinning as they fell. Those may have contributed to the somewhat elevated ZDR obs from KCCX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Really disappointing to see nothing south of Rt. 22. Cloud deck never went below 10kft on the obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-PERRY- CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG... STATE COLLEGE...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION... LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG... CHAMBERSBURG...NEWPORT...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK 254 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES. * TIMING...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...GO TO WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE OR MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO. REPORT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected]... POSTING TO THE NWS STATE COLLEGE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET @NWSSTATECOLLEGE WITH THE HASHTAG C...T...P...W...X. && $ PAZ049-050-052-057>059-066-210800- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0006.150121T1500Z-150122T0200Z/ UNION-SNYDER-NORTHUMBERLAND-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE...SUNBURY... SHAMOKIN...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON... LANCASTER 254 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES. * TIMING...WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...GO TO WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE OR MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO. REPORT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected]... POSTING TO THE NWS STATE COLLEGE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET @NWSSTATECOLLEGE WITH THE HASHTAG C...T...P...W...X. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Full-on snow globe in downtown Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hopefully it's a bit cooler for the main event tomorrow, it was a hair too warm here today (33-34ºF). Probably had about a half inch on top of the old snow on the ground and a fresh coating on the grass patches..but it didn't accumulate on anything else other than the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Looks like were too far NE for more than an inch tmrw esp if temps are borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hopefully it's a bit cooler for the main event tomorrow, it was a hair too warm here today (33-34ºF). Probably had about a half inch on top of the old snow on the ground and a fresh coating on the grass patches..but it didn't accumulate on anything else other than the trees. I'd think with precip coming in in the morning tomorrow we should be able to hold below freezing for most areas north of the turnpike and east of Laurel Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Couple notes on the weekend storm: In terms of the European ensemble I only have access to the mean but my early look at it shows the mean NW of the op with the track of the low and some light-moderate QPF all the way back into the JST-AOO-UNV corridor. 850 0ºC line straddles very close to our southernmost PA Sus Valley members in our forum, but pokes up into PA more in the SE PA/Philly region. 12z GFS and Euro ops look pretty similar with low positioning and strength with the Euro perhaps a tad NW of the GFS and a little more expansive QPF wise.. but actually pretty close to each other. Both get precip into the southern tier and Lower Sus Valley. The GFS ensemble mean is SE of the op. However far NW this storm ends up, temps look fairly marginal.. as has been mentioned pretty well already with the lack of a high up north. We've seen this song and dance before this winter with the southern stream storms that have actually managed to track well and put solid precip into PA. If it tracked as is going with a GFS/Euro op compromise, which is what I would roll with at the current time given their associated ensemble mean positioning, I think most of the region as it relates to our forum would be mainly snow for whoever saw precip. If the models eventually start centering the low more on where the Euro ensemble mean has it right now, it would invite the possibility of a rain/snow mix in the lower Sus Valley at least to start. I personally think as long as the low stays a coastal runner and maybe runs through the Delmarva on the way up through, most would be fine. A Delmarva peninsula track is our typical snowstorm track, and we're pretty much in the dead of winter climo wise.. so I think marginal temps would lean snow with even just a little bit of elevation. I'd be more worried being in the DC-Balt corridor. If the low itself took more of an I-95 track running through DC to Philly or something like that, that's when the Sus Valley and eastern PA would have issues. Should be interesting to watch unfold from a forecasting standpoint the next few days since this is the first bigger storm threat for the new GFS. This is also progged to be quite a strong coastal storm right now as well, so we would be well positioned to see a pretty big snow event in this setup if the storm tracked just right. Oh yea and there's the snow event tomorrow, it's about time this winter has showed some life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Good stuff! I'd like to add that what I believe to be one of the key players, a norther-stream vortmax that swings through the Great Lakes region late on Friday, is still over the Northern Pacific and won't reach the coast until Thursday morning. So don't be shocked to see some decently large shifts in model solutions until that vortmax reaches the more well-sampled continental areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Decent coating on the grass should at least make it easier for snow tomorrow to stick if we're dealing with daytime snow with temps around freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 0z NAM scooches south a bit again. Looks good for our numerous LSV posters though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 0z NAM scooches south a bit again. Looks good for our numerous LSV posters though. Not really different from 12 or 18z runs with the clipper, but talk about NAM'ed for the weekend storm. Precip is way NW and gets all of PA and its mostly snow except farther southeast PA mixing. End of range NAM disclaimer aside, hope that sets a tone for the rest of the 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Was checking the reports on the storms current progress. And they are reporting it's further North and Northeast. Will that have a effect on us here? http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=DVN&issuedby=DVN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Edit: Clipper tomorrow http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=41.61389&lon=-90.59139#.VL8bD8u9KSN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The next 7 days give us 3 chances for snow. The 12z Euro operational today gave a total of 10.9 inches to MDT By next Tuesday. The Ensemble mean and control run brought similar amounts. The Saturday storm as MAG said really bears watching especially in the LSV. The Euro ensemble had over 30 of the 51 members that showed solid hits. A large cluster of members were coastal huggers, and only a few were whiffs. Hopefully the 0z runs will continue trending in our favor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Just had a fairly harrowing drive up from carlisle. My grandmother's on hospice care as of yesterday so we were doing some paperwork. 81/581 were fine but 32nd, Harvey Taylor and city streets are icey., Also driving down we saw a car in the median of 81 right near 114. It was flipped upside down on the other side of a guardrail. How the hell is that possible for a one car accident? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Not really different from 12 or 18z runs with the clipper, but talk about NAM'ed for the weekend storm. Precip is way NW and gets all of PA and its mostly snow except farther southeast PA mixing. End of range NAM disclaimer aside, hope that sets a tone for the rest of the 0z suite. Saw that. Unfortunately, if the NAM shows it at 84 hours, it probably won't happen. Only half joking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Was checking the reports on the storms current progress. And they are reporting it's further North and Northeast. Will that have a effect on us here? http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=DVN&issuedby=DVN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Edit: Clipper tomorrow Well only 0z model we got so far currently is the NAM and it's 3 hour frame on the high res compared to the current radar would seem to confirm NWS DVN's (Quad Cities, IA) observation. It may portend a slightly further north axis of heavier snowfall thru our state (still within the advisory area), but attm I don't see it as anything that would significantly affect anything that's out forecast wise for our region. Will have to watch radar evolution and eventually high res HRRR and RAP forecasts to keep tabs on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Hmmmm, looks like the southern tier of the forum will have a shot at some nice snow tomorrow. HBG to LNS down to the MD line look good for a nice 2-4" snowfall. Good call by CTP so far. The weekend event looks pretty good too. Our winter is finally starting to look like a winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Thanks Mag for checking that out! Canderson sorry about your Grandmother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Saw that. Unfortunately, if the NAM shows it at 84 hours, it probably won't happen. Only half joking... GFS coming in further NW with precip as well (Re: Weekend Storm). 84 and 90hr has entire southern third or so of PA affected with precip with more moderate precip at and below the turnpike, but fades east and is still more of a glancing blow overall. Getting closer though, UNV might've gotten around a tenth this go around, probably at least a couple tenths below the turnpike and a small region of .25-.50 poking into the southern tier at 84hr near Zak's area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS is right where we want it. Canderson: That's awful to hear about your grandmother...we've got your back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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