Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Got to 32 here today. Went for a walk and the sun felt nice and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 It's looking like our next chance of a more widespread snowfall will be with the potential clipper system around Tues/Wed. It looks fairly weak though. QPF looks maybe on par with the clipper we saw back on the 6th (pretty light) but this one looks like it's going to be a more of a warmer event and not the snow while it's in the low to mid teens event that one was. So might only be something that delivers an inch or so at best for most folks unless models beef up the system a little bit more. Other than that it looks like generally a dry and seasonably to slightly colder than average week for the most part after that with some snow shower chances at times. The pattern is looking to stay consistently cold, but with a continued lack of possible bigger storms for the time being. The progressive pattern along with the +NAO really takes away the big hitter potential for the east coast by making a well timed phase of shortwaves even more difficult than it already is. That doesn't mean we can't have a decent storm but it makes things hard to get any kind of a KU type event. That's a problem we generally had last winter until the Feb 13th storm, but last winter was still more active than this one thus far with storms... even though I feel this winter has in some ways been pretty similar to last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 It's looking like our next chance of a more widespread snowfall will be with the potential clipper system around Tues/Wed. It looks fairly weak though. QPF looks maybe on par with the clipper we saw back on the 6th (pretty light) but this one looks like it's going to be a more of a warmer event and not the snow while it's in the low to mid teens event that one was. So might only be something that delivers an inch or so at best for most folks unless models beef up the system a little bit more. Other than that it looks like generally a dry and seasonably to slightly colder than average week for the most part after that with some snow shower chances at times. The pattern is looking to stay consistently cold, but with a continued lack of possible bigger storms for the time being. The progressive pattern along with the +NAO really takes away the big hitter potential for the east coast by making a well timed phase of shortwaves even more difficult than it already is. That doesn't mean we can't have a decent storm but it makes things hard to get any kind of a KU type event. That's a problem we generally had last winter until the Feb 13th storm, but last winter was still more active than this one thus far with storms... even though I feel this winter has in some ways been pretty similar to last winter. Thanks MagYou was saying Tue/Wed system looks kind of weak. Looking at the system I'm wondering if there is going to be much making it over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Our winter has been non-existent around the entire region. My question: might this to date be one of the least-snowy winters in the MA and NE combined history (aside from buffalo ha)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Our winter has been non-existent around the entire region. My question: might this to date be one of the least-snowy winters in the MA and NE combined history (aside from buffalo ha)? Looks like 94-95 was one of the least snowiest winters for you."Under 10" " How much do you have this year?http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/snowmaps/index.php?tab=norms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Dicey here in Lancaster county, especially the further south you go near the MD line. Just a little freezing drizzle in Millersville so far, but the building precip to my southwest in York is making a B-line up my direction. Temps at 30/29 with an even colder surface. Stay safe for anyone in the cross hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It's looking like our next chance of a more widespread snowfall will be with the potential clipper system around Tues/Wed. It looks fairly weak though. QPF looks maybe on par with the clipper we saw back on the 6th (pretty light) but this one looks like it's going to be a more of a warmer event and not the snow while it's in the low to mid teens event that one was. So might only be something that delivers an inch or so at best for most folks unless models beef up the system a little bit more. Other than that it looks like generally a dry and seasonably to slightly colder than average week for the most part after that with some snow shower chances at times. The pattern is looking to stay consistently cold, but with a continued lack of possible bigger storms for the time being. The progressive pattern along with the +NAO really takes away the big hitter potential for the east coast by making a well timed phase of shortwaves even more difficult than it already is. That doesn't mean we can't have a decent storm but it makes things hard to get any kind of a KU type event. That's a problem we generally had last winter until the Feb 13th storm, but last winter was still more active than this one thus far with storms... even though I feel this winter has in some ways been pretty similar to last winter. It seems like it will be difficult to nail down a deterministic forecast for the potential clipper given the multitude of weak shortwaves involved in developing this system. The 00z Euro has a more energetic 500 mb wave and produced a couple tenths of an inch QPF near the PA/MD border vs. the 06z GFS which has some less organized precipitation. The 06z GFS ensemble members show a large range of scenarios, highlighting the uncertain nature of this forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Pretty crazy that even a clipper is uncertain in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Our winter has been non-existent around the entire region. My question: might this to date be one of the least-snowy winters in the MA and NE combined history (aside from buffalo ha)? For the regions as a whole I doubt it, although it's certainly down there in terms of starts. But while it has been quite lackluster everyone has generally seen some kind of a snow event at least once, and our region has seen three events that had widespread headlines for snowfall. Even DC managed an event the other week. The I-95 corridor from NYC to Boston on the other hand has been very quiet. I've brought up 06-07 earlier in the winter about it's dead on arrival start, and folks in the lower Sus Valley (MDT, LNS, etc) didn't have their first measurable snowfall that season til mid-January if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It seems like it will be difficult to nail down a deterministic forecast for the potential clipper given the multitude of weak shortwaves involved in developing this system. The 00z Euro has a more energetic 500 mb wave and produced a couple tenths of an inch QPF near the PA/MD border vs. the 06z GFS which has some less organized precipitation. The 06z GFS ensemble members show a large range of scenarios, highlighting the uncertain nature of this forecast. The Euro had quite the solution for that clipper last night, not like being the most wound up model has gotten it anywhere this year. That would take the one mid-atlantic guys winter cancel index from the current level of "Ji" (6) right to Deep winter (0) haha. Most of the other guidance has looked more marginal temp wise (esp in the Mid-Atl) in addition to being less organized (GFS/CMC) or outright uninterested (NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It's snowing quite hard here currently with a fresh coating on everything including the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Just starting to see some wet snowflakes here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 This veil of ice on some roads this morning...ran a lot of property damage accidents. Is that precip in western Adams snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 ON THE HEELS OF THE AMPLIFYING TROF ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN TIER BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITIES OF THE SYSTEM DOWNSTREAM...IT IS NOT SURPRISING THIS SYSTEM IS PLAGUED BY MODEL SPREAD. IT APPEARS MUCH OF THIS HAS TO DO WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST. THE 12Z NAM/CMC ARE FARTHER WEST WHICH SUPPORTS A DIFFERENT SOLUTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAN ON STAYING CONSISTENT WITH THE SYSTEM AHEAD BASED ON ITS TIMING AND LEAN ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 26/25 in Millersville with black ice everywhere. Yikes Edit: Make that 25/24. Ice skating anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Got a dusting of snow here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Flurrying here. There was a lot of ice on the sidewalks last night away from immediate downtown SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Looking pretty decent for a light snowfall Wednesday afternoon/night. WPC probabilities for >1": Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Looking pretty decent for a light snowfall Wednesday afternoon/night. WPC probabilities for >1": snowprob.JPG I'm liking the prospects of a nice 2-4" of snow in the Laurels and CPA. The further east and south you go, the tougher the forecast becomes with a decrease in available QPF and temperatures for the southern tier. I still like 1-3" along and north of the turnpike for Wednesday and a coating to 2" possible south of the turnpike with the highest amounts toward the western half. This is all just preliminary of course. The models are starting to hone in on the idea for the state, but they are not quite all on the same page. Today will be telling, but the odds of a light event for the entire state are becoming more likely.Edit: But of course the GFS says, "Not so fast" with a continuation of a further south solution impacting MD more. It can never be easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I'm liking the prospects of a nice 2-4" of snow in the Laurels and CPA. The further east and south you go, the tougher the forecast becomes with a decrease in available QPF and temperatures for the southern tier. I still like 1-3" along and north of the turnpike for Wednesday and a coating to 2" possible south of the turnpike with the highest amounts toward the western half. This is all just preliminary of course. The models are starting to hone in on the idea for the state, but they are not quite all on the same page. Today will be telling, but the odds of a light event for the entire state are becoming more likely. 12z GFS shows most of us with >0.25" precip for Wednesday. A few spots of 0.5" west of the Allegheny front, which is enhanced a bit from the light qpf it is showing for tomorrow afternoon Hopefully a nice little event to re-whiten everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Dicey here in Lancaster county, especially the further south you go near the MD line. Just a little freezing drizzle in Millersville so far, but the building precip to my southwest in York is making a B-line up my direction. Temps at 30/29 with an even colder surface. Stay safe for anyone in the cross hairs. I hit a couple patches of slick spots in M-Ville yesterday afternoon when i helped my daughter take her stuff back to school. Because of that i moderated my hydration at Jacks.. It was extremly foggy as well when i left and heading up 283 around 5-530. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 12z GFS shows most of us with >0.25" precip for Wednesday. A few spots of 0.5" west of the Allegheny front, which is enhanced a bit from the light qpf it is showing for tomorrow afternoon Hopefully a nice little event to re-whiten everything.Yeah, I just noticed that too after looking at it more closely. Not used to looking at models on a phone, but I can only work with what I have haha. Not a bad look at all for those who want a fresh coverage of snow. H5 vort pass isn't too bad for most of the area. Would like to see it a bit further north, but beggars can't be choosers this winter. I'll take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I hit a couple patches of slick spots in M-Ville yesterday afternoon when i helped my daughter take her stuff back to school. Because of that i moderated my hydration at Jacks.. It was extremly foggy as well when i left and heading up 283 around 5-530.Ahhh, I love Jacks. Very nice local joint. Hope you enjoyed. As far as the conditions around campus go, let's just say I stayed away. By evening, it was freezing fog until it lifted. Should all be melted now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Even clippers are tricky this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I hit a couple patches of slick spots in M-Ville yesterday afternoon when i helped my daughter take her stuff back to school. Because of that i moderated my hydration at Jacks.. It was extremly foggy as well when i left and heading up 283 around 5-530. Jacks...loved that place. My wife grew up 5 min from there. Used to get there 1/2 pasta before my races, and just loved there fries (for 4)....good times. I hope this clipper keeps trending better, but it sounds like the 12z's are off to a decent start..... all hail the King????? Answers at 12:45. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Love the wings at Jacks. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Went to MU...loved Jack's. The place fell apart, IMO when the previous owner sold it to the current one. They had a rash of write-ups in the newspaper shortly thereafter. Health department had a field day with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Gee why the CTP forecast in gray? Kind of blahs 2-3"out. Before that color used to be nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Gee why the CTP forecast in gray? Kind of blahs 2-3"out. Before that color used to be nothing.Its more specific, it used to be 2-4, 3-6, 6-12. I agree w/ color though - it needs a tan or something badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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