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Central PA & Fringes - December-January 2014-15


djr5001

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start time of the advisory may need to be adjusted back. Doppler 8 shows returns hitting the ground in Franklin County.

29/18

After checking mmts, high today was 32.

"WAA waits for no man,"  Eric Horst.  Hoping to see ice build up throughout the night...it's been awhile since we've seen a big ice storm.

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What do you think Joe? And nice quote from Eric. I've heard him say that before myself and he's right.

WAA = Warm Air Advection.  Eric always told us the warm air advection precipitation arrives 3 - 6 hours before the numerical guidance shows it.  He's usually right.  

 

I think west of I-83 and north of the turnpike should bee 0.1" - 0.2" ice.  North of Rt. 22 could stay all sleet or snow.  Dew points temps are a few degrees below guidance and in these marginal events that's all it takes.  Really sad that we can't buy any down stream blocking this winter, it's ruining what would've been an otherwise solid season thus far.

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"WAA waits for no man,"  Eric Horst.  Hoping to see ice build up throughout the night...it's been awhile since we've seen a big ice storm.

yep the last few times we had favorable conditions for significant ice the rainfall rates were too heavy... does not look heavy through the overnight hours tonight to me so yea could get quite messy the next several hours.

 

31 and tiny ice balls falling here

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WAA = Warm Air Advection. Eric always told us the warm air advection precipitation arrives 3 - 6 hours before the numerical guidance shows it. He's usually right.

I think west of I-83 and north of the turnpike should bee 0.1" - 0.2" ice. North of Rt. 22 could stay all sleet or snow. Dew points temps are a few degrees below guidance and in these marginal events that's all it takes. Really sad that we can't buy any down stream blocking this winter, it's ruining what would've been an otherwise solid season thus far.

Yup. That's exactly right and he's always been on the money when it comes to timing of storms. I agree on the ice accumulation for the region you outlined. That area over out toward Chambersburg along the turnpike always seems to do well in these types of setups. I think someone like Cashtown can get a good dosage of ice before all said and done.

I'm dying for some downstream blocking. It seems like the elusive -NAO will remain the achiles heel for the Northeast. Last year we did it a very atypical way with the displaced PV and very nice -EPO and +PNA setup funneling cold air into the region for a long period. Will be interesting to see how the remainder of winter unfolds. I will never punt February unless I'm absolutely certain nothing is going to happen. It's not that time.

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Awaiting main precip arrival, sitting at 31ºF and a few snow grains falling. Snuck up to Blue Knob earlier this evening to do some snowboarding before the lousy weather comes in and messes it up. Was still 27ºF up at the ~3100ft summit (approx the 925 level) around 9 pm. Mesoanalysis still indicates 0ºC line running the turnpike at the 850 level. Most will likely see a plethora of p-types at least initially as main slug of precip moves in from the Pittsburgh region. Hope we can get out of this event without a major I-80 pileup for a change, or anywhere for that matter. They've been quite frequent this winter, despite PennDOT being seemingly more proactive about lowering the speed limits to 45mph on parts of I-80 during the more minor events we've had so far this winter.  

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All roads i traveled are fine, 11&15 and the GWB/81 etc. no issues with side roads either. Sidewalks are a little greasey.

Seems to have warmed up pretty quick.

 

I think the roads are in pretty good shape due to the fact that there is so much residual salt from the previous storms. My street is just wet despite having pure freezing rain right now with a temp of 31 degrees.

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I think the roads are in pretty good shape due to the fact that there is so much residual salt from the previous storms. My street is just wet despite having pure freezing rain right now with a temp of 31 degrees.

I know here the roads were white with salt residue as of yesterday...clouds of it blowing around when driving.

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