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Central PA & Fringes - December-January 2014-15


djr5001

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Anyone have any  measurements? I had almost a half an inch and didn't think any roads I take into Harrisburg were bad, though most are major and not secondary.  Totals at least here won't reach advisory levels so now I am sure they will take heat for finally issuing them anyway.

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Light snow at 14° here in Bellefonte.  Roads were not great but that's to be expected when it's too cold for salt to be effective.  Around an inch on the ground, I can't see us picking up more than another 0.5" or so based on the current radar.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to get some more measurable tomorrow via lake effect streamers and a squall or two.

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It took me 1:20 to get in on what is normally a 35 min drive.  I do not mind driving in snow at all....but most roads hills were not touched at all...probably 6 people stuck on hills (which made me stuck 2x - which again is fine by me), but with the age of technology and availability of information at our fingertips...I do find it amusing how late we are to react.  It's almost like they "wish it away" and react WHEN its imminent...too late.  

 

I'm old enough to remember days of snow covered roads and actually love the "good ol days", but those days are gone...or should be.  You can bring em back and I'll be happy as a clam...heck I'll ride my snowmobile to work if I have to :).

 

BTW at a glance, I'd say right close or a pinch above 1" here at the office in Elizabethtown.

 

Nut

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I'm gonna be too high in my totals for the southwestern 1/4 of PA most likely. The rest looks ok along the southern tier and Sus Valley. Good to hear Cashtown is around 2". Rates aren't getting it done this morning up this way, only have about an inch on the ground despite it starting on time around 4am. It's been all fine flakes.

 

The best band is running thru NoVA, MD, and DC across the I-270 corridor currently. Expected something like this further north along I-70 and the turnpike in western PA and running the mason-dixon the rest of the way. That DC band is running along the 850mb -8C isotherm in classic fashion (and also co-located in a region of some frontogenesis at that level). It's a bit cold aloft up here and better lift seemed to end up south of most of the area. That hurts ratios, which factored big in my forecast, esp in the Pit/SW PA/Laurels region.

 

We'll see what it looks like this afternoon when it's done, it is still snowing after all.

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CTP is often criticized when they don't issues advisories or warnings...and perhaps there's validity in that. Just a thought...how often does CTP issue those advisories/warnings and the result is the event did not end up warranting it? I was under a Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow back in November...end result was nowhere near warning criteria snowfall.

 

I think(?) the criteria here is for 3" to accumlate for an advisory to be issued. I'm going to end up with half of that...or less.

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I'm gonna be too high in my totals for the southwestern 1/4 of PA most likely. The rest looks ok along the southern tier and Sus Valley. Good to hear Cashtown is around 2". Rates aren't getting it done this morning up this way, only have about an inch on the ground despite it starting on time around 4am. It's been all fine flakes.

 

The best band is running thru NoVA, MD, and DC across the I-270 corridor currently. Expected something like this further north along I-70 and the turnpike in western PA and running the mason-dixon the rest of the way. That DC band is running along the 850mb -8C isotherm in classic fashion (and also co-located in a region of some frontogenesis at that level). It's a bit cold aloft up here and better lift seemed to end up south of most of the area. That hurts ratios, which factored big in my forecast, esp in the Pit/SW PA/Laurels region.

 

We'll see what it looks like this afternoon when it's done, it is still snowing after all.

Cold dust here, too.  Radar does look a bit better over the last few frames, so we should hit 1.5" or so here.

 

Any thoughts on tomorrow WRT LES/squalls?  Just taking a quick look at the NAM from last evening and the flow combined with decent 700/850/900mb moisture and decent lapse rates makes me think someone could get a little surprise at some point tomorrow.

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CTP is often criticized when they don't issues advisories or warnings...and perhaps there's validity in that. Just a thought...how often does CTP issue those advisories/warnings and the result is the event did not end up warranting it? I was under a Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow back in November...end result was nowhere near warning criteria snowfall.

 

I think(?) the criteria here is for 3" to accumlate for an advisory to be issued. I'm going to end up with half of that...or less.

 

Yea the technical criteria with an advisory is reaching 3", or basically having a overall mean of 3" in a given county. They sometimes issue for a bit lower if the impact warrants it (like early season event, impacting rush hour, wind impacts, etc), which is probably what they ended up doing. That's the reason Philly had them issued all the way up to Allentown for a forecasted 1-2.

 

Also, CTP did fill the advisory gap in the Sus Valley before the snow started this morning (advisory was issued at 1:25AM).. so they didn't wait to issue after it started snowing. 

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Rates aren't getting it done this morning up this way, only have about an inch on the ground despite it starting on time around 4am. It's been all fine flakes.

 

About a half inch here, but like you said, rates are poor. Not that I expected much this way, as models and forecasts all pointed to it being not much more than an inch in my area.

 

CTP is often criticized when they don't issues advisories or warnings...and perhaps there's validity in that. Just a thought...how often does CTP issue those advisories/warnings and the result is the event did not end up warranting it? I was under a Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow back in November...end result was nowhere near warning criteria snowfall.

 

I think(?) the criteria here is for 3" to accumlate for an advisory to be issued. I'm going to end up with half of that...or less.

 

Personally, I really don't know why folks get so wound up over whether they have an advisory, watch, or warning. It makes no sense, as it isn't going to change what actually happens. While some may argue the safety aspect, I don't think PennDot relies exclusively on whether there is an advisory or not. To me, it seems as if it's more of a "status symbol" type of thing.

 

My only complaint yesterday was the lack of a snowfall forecast map. Usually they are pretty good with updating those, but it wasn't until late afternoon before they actually put one out.

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Cold dust here, too.  Radar does look a bit better over the last few frames, so we should hit 1.5" or so here.

 

Any thoughts on tomorrow WRT LES/squalls?  Just taking a quick look at the NAM from last evening and the flow combined with decent 700/850/900mb moisture and decent lapse rates makes me think someone could get a little surprise at some point tomorrow.

 

Yea radar blossomed a bit there and rates have responded some down here. Now a bit more of a light-moderate rate. Pit radar has solidified a bit as well, so it looks like light snow will continue to maintain for a while yet.

 

It certainly looks favorable tomorrow/tomorrow eve for some decent bands and squalls traversing into the central counties at times. Like one of those setups that could set a band or two that drops a couple inches if one is in the right place. Think the Pit disco this morning mentioned albeit briefly about a dual fetch from the lakes (probably Huron-Erie connection. With the -20 to -25C air PA and over the lakes (which are still quite open for business due to our warmer December)... the NW fetch is def going to pile snow up in the Laurels and NW mountains I would imagine. I'm sure CTP will be considering new headlines for those regions when this current event wraps up later today. 

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17 degrees here with "heavy" light snow falling.  Have about 1.2" and looking for maybe another few tenths to reach 1.5".  Looking like MAG nailed it on his map for me.

 

Thank you MAG for your efforts with the new map.  You definitely did not have to do that for us, so much appreciation.  Hope to see more of them as the season progresses.

 

It was 15 degrees here when the snow started earlier.  Personally, I think any accumulating snow with temps below 20 degrees are great to watch because it doesn't snow around here (LSV) in the teens all that often.  That makes me ask the question:  What was the coldest (based on either CXY or MDT) where more than 1" of snow fell with the temp 19 degrees or colder during all of last winter???

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17 degrees here with "heavy" light snow falling.  Have about 1.2" and looking for maybe another few tenths to reach 1.5".  Looking like MAG nailed it on his map for me.

 

Thank you MAG for your efforts with the new map.  You definitely did not have to do that for us, so much appreciation.  Hope to see more of them as the season progresses.

 

It was 15 degrees here when the snow started earlier.  Personally, I think any accumulating snow with temps below 20 degrees are great to watch because it doesn't snow around here (LSV) in the teens all that often.  That makes me ask the question:  What was the coldest (based on either CXY or MDT) where more than 1" of snow fell with the temp 19 degrees or colder during all of last winter???

The 1/2-3/14 storm last year featured temperatures dropping from the low 20s to near 10° here as the snow fell during the late evening. 

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Mods....can we start a new thread for 2015, or change the title of this one?  

 

As bad as winter started, maybe today's the start of better times.

 

Just a thought and I'd be glad to give it a go, if I'm deemed worthy...got a few good thread titles in mind.

 

Nut

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