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Central PA & Fringes - December-January 2014-15


djr5001

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So uh someone in the Laurels might struggle to hit 0 Thursday/Friday. Looks like MDT gets down in low single digits Thursdsy night, barely hits 15 Thurs or Fri.

 

I think you might be 24 hours behind on your timing.  Looks more like Wed and Thu are the two days with highs under 20 and Wednesday night the only night in the single digits (in our LSV region).  The cold air advection will be over with going into Thursday night so unless we radiate we probably stay above 10.   Regardless, it's really going to feel wicked cold especially with wind chills after our "warm" and snowless December.  Definitely looks like our longest stretch of continuously below freezing temps starting Monday evening and lasting straight through next Saturday at least.

 

Beforehand the models keep vacillating with our qpf for the Tuesday clipper.  One run we're near 0.20" liquid, next we're barely 0.10" with the southern fringe on the M/D line.  We could maybe eek out 2" of powder from 0.10" liquid given 850's should be close to the sweet spot of -8 to -10. 

 

At least it's some action to look forward to.

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Low level cold has continued to hold fast around here early this morning with temps still hovering around 33-34. While ice accretions on the trees and cars have been long gone since early Sat Eve.. the frozen ground continues to hold ice. Our gravel driveway is a broken tailbone waiting to happen. Also, since our township has seemed to treat this event on a part-time basis, there's still slush covering the township road by our house from the much earlier sleet and ice and some of the normally shady spots have in fact glazed back over creating a very treacherous roadway. Hopefully can get some warm air mixed down pretty soon. 

 

Models continue to be steadfast on the Tuesday clipper, with some slight variations...but overall trying to put a swath of snow across the state. New 03z SREF plumes are pretty bullish with means of 4-5 inches in places like Pit (4ish), JST (5-ish), AOO (4.2" ish), and UNV (5-ish). AVP also was around a 4 inch mean as well.  Sus Valley had means around 2 inches. I'd imagine they're calculating some pretty high SLRs. I do currently like most of the western 2/3rds of PA as well as NE PA for a 2-4" type (more than that in Laurels) event with 1-2 in the Sus Valley as well as along the MD border. Will be continuing to zero in on the axis of potentially more moderate snowfall as this gets more into the short range. 

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Winter Wx Advisories can be expected this afternoon for the clipper tomorrow.  Should be a coating to 2" region wide, with up to 4" in the Laurels.  Classic Alberta Clipper system and hopefully we can hold onto the snow cover through the rest of the week with this cold weather.  Looks like the pattern relaxes considerably by the end of the weekend though.

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Gust to 50mph at house and a 58mph gust at liberty mountain resort

 

You were the very person I thought of who most likely would have recorded the highest wind gust due to your 10m tower and pretty good elevation.  I had multiple gusts to over 30mph from around 8:00pm last evening through early this morning.  Several peak gusts of 34mph with the highest peak gust at 34.4mph (which actually occurred around 8:30pm).  My exposure for my anemometer is actually pretty good.  I'm surprised I didn't reach 40.  Wind graph shows the winds just beginning to abate a bit with my last gust to 30 recorded shortly after 9:00am this morning.  Temp just dropped below 32 and may not rise above 32 again until a week from today.  Seven days continuously below freezing would be pretty impressive.  I cannot remember what the longest continuous stretch below freezing was for last winter but I'm pretty sure we had a run of more than 7 days.

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You were the very person I thought of who most likely would have recorded the highest wind gust due to your 10m tower and pretty good elevation.  I had multiple gusts to over 30mph from around 8:00pm last evening through early this morning.  Several peak gusts of 34mph with the highest peak gust at 34.4mph (which actually occurred around 8:30pm).  My exposure for my anemometer is actually pretty good.  I'm surprised I didn't reach 40.  Wind graph shows the winds just beginning to abate a bit with my last gust to 30 recorded shortly after 9:00am this morning.  Temp just dropped below 32 and may not rise above 32 again until a week from today.  Seven days continuously below freezing would be pretty impressive.  I cannot remember what the longest continuous stretch below freezing was for last winter but I'm pretty sure we had a run of more than 7 days.

Longest stretch at MDT I believe was 5 days, but an hour or two at 33 broke what could have been almost 9 straight.  That streak was late January last year.

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Does anyone know why CTP has not yet updated their winter weather page (snowfall map) to reflect the incoming clipper? Not that I expect advisories up my way, nor any real significant snowfall, but I think that less than 24 from onset, they should at least have updated the accumulation map.

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