Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,598
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    PublicWorks143
    Newest Member
    PublicWorks143
    Joined

Central PA & Fringes - December-January 2014-15


djr5001

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The silence around here is deafening  :bag:   Not even a WWA is garnering a peep from anyone but canderson.  .

 

I've been laying out my thoughts here and there pretty extensively the last couple days. Folks should def watch out for a several hour period of messy weather on the front end of this storm today if they're out and about. These sneaky ice events causing havoc on the roadways has been something this winter has done pretty effectively so far.. and I expect initial issues before it warms up later this after noon and tonight. The local PennDOT around here already put down pretreatment on the roads.. so that's a plus. 

 

I wouldn't sleep on the Tuesday clipper that continues to be on all the computer models and delivers a statewide light (to perhaps moderate in places) snowfall across the state. I mean it is okay to discuss this guys haha. We're not talking a triple phaser at 210 hours or something. This is a northern branch wave inside 84 hours now.. with one hell of a cold shot behind it. We can probably uncancel winter for this coming week.  The cold in place prior would promise a high ratio event so it would only take a 2 or 3 tenths to put an advisory swath across a good part of PA. If the wave digs and is potent enough, this can maintain across the Sus Valley too. Might only be a couple inches.. but gotta start somewhere don't you? Like I mentioned in my previous post, the track will prove to be important. If it doesn't dive enough and cuts more into NY, then snows might only get into western PA and not get off the mountains. Through or just under PA would help to maintain the swath all the way across. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

believe it or not....HEAVY SNOW right now with sleet mixed in.  Literally golfball size flakes for a couple minutes.  took pics for proof, but will try to upload....

 

and no I'm not drinking. :ee:

 

if even only for a short time, its nice to see again...lifted my spirits.

 

Nut

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's waayyyy more than a trace of freezing rain here in pgh....I can't even walk 2 steps on my flat driveway....you guys getting it now in CPA?.....accidents are everywhere and police are warning people to stay home until afternoon.

The ice threat will be minimal east of Altoona/state college with the weak cold air damming. Temps aloft west of the mountains warmed quickly this morning so the light precip looks to have made things very icy across western pa. We will be lucky to stay mostly snow/sleet before the changeover to rain

Link to comment
Share on other sites

post-1389-0-66990700-1420301544_thumb.gi

 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0859 AM CST SAT JAN 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF PA AND WRN NY

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 031459Z - 031900Z

SUMMARY...PTYPE TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN/RAIN
WILL OCCUR WITHIN A SWATH OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. ICE ACCRETION RATES OF .03-.06 IN/HR ARE
LIKELY...WITH THE GREATEST LONGEVITY OF FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED FROM
PARTS OF CNTRL PA TO SWRN NY.

DISCUSSION...TIME-SERIES OF REGIONAL VWP DATA DEPICT STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL S/SWLYS WITH ENLARGED CYCLONIC HODOGRAPHS INDICATIVE OF
ROBUST WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. BROAD SWATH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS/EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE NRN APPALACHIANS
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 12Z PIT/IAD RAOBS SAMPLED AN ABOVE-FREEZING
WARM NOSE SATURATED TO 3-4 DEG C BETWEEN 850-800 MB. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND RAP/NAM/SREF PTYPE GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST THAT PTYPE
WILL BE TRANSITORY WITHIN SUCH A STRONG WAA REGIME. GIVEN OBSERVED
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM 25-30 DEG F...INITIAL LIGHT SLEET/SNOW
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO PREDOMINANT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE BECOMING RAIN
AS TEMPERATURES DIABATICALLY WARM AOA 32 DEG F. MULTIPLE HOURS OF
ICE ACCRETION APPEARS MOST PROBABLE FROM CNTRL PA TO SWRN NY INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.

..GRAMS.. 01/03/2015

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks, MAG for your earlier review.  I really wasn't referring to you when I made my earlier comment.  You and Millville have been chiming in fairly regularly.  But, nobody else was posting.  I really enjoy your in-depth reviews particularly your middle of the night take on the nighttime Euro, so many thanks!

 

When I got up this morning (late) I looked outside and initially thought it had snowed since nearly everything looked white.  However, when I got a closer look it turned out to have been nearly all sleet.  I'd say I picked up at least several tenths of an inch.  There was a lull around 10:30 and when it started back up again it was light freezing rain with a temp of 31.  The temp reached 32.0 around noontime, but then leveled off and practically didn't budge.  Late this afternoon, after 5:00pm it was still only 32.9 degrees which was my high for the day.  A fair amount of the sleet had not yet even melted.

 

So it looks like we drop below 32 tomorrow evening and then remain below freezing all day and night straight through next Saturday.  That seems impressive to me.  I'm hoping for a few inches of snow on Tuesday morning.  Looks like we can pick up one to two inches around here in the LSV.  Then the arctic onslaught commences.

 

So, some action picking up around here worthy of discussing during the next few days.  I'm looking forward to seeing the board pick back up again. :snowwindow:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...