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Central PA & Fringes - December-January 2014-15

djr5001

By djr5001,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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WmsptWx

WmsptWx

Posted
Posted

Yeah he's always like that....

 

Hug whatever model you want...it's Christmas.

 

Nut

 

Yeah, and he's an orange tag. And I cannot remember one single time he's been right. Trolling? I don't know but this nonsense is what got people banned from the accuweather forums back in the day.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
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Yeah, and he's an orange tag. And I cannot remember one single time he's been right. Trolling? I don't know but this nonsense is what got people banned from the accuweather forums back in the day.

I just feel that any tagger should help to set the bar as to what we should or should'nt post, as any of us weenies post something like that, and we get called out for being stupid or not knowing what were talking about.  While I love snow as much as any, I'm not going to post the model that shows what I want it to at any given time...especially in a progressive pattern like the one we are heading into...not that I know what I'm talking about.

 

Rant over...its Christmas.  Still love being in this forum...we are a pretty good bunch if I must say so myself.  Enjoy the day all.

 

Nut

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CarlislePaWx

CarlislePaWx

Posted
Posted

45 years ago this morning the temperature in NYC was 15 degrees.  A snowstorm followed the next day.  I was 10 years old at the time, and while I cannot actually remember those times, my father recorded on reel-to-reel tape the Christmas music that was played that morning on WRFM.  It became a tradition in our household to play that recorded music every Christmas morning thereafter.  So I have a permanent piece of the past to enjoy still all these years later.

 

Each Christmas I hope for a morning with a temp outside of 15 degrees.  I have had at least a half-dozen or more during this time.

 

Yes, this year isn't one of those years.  But there's always next year.

 

Merry Christmas to all (and even you, Eskimo.  Try not to emphasize the negatives of the weather so often!)

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WmsptWx

WmsptWx

Posted
Posted

I just feel that any tagger should help to set the bar as to what we should or should'nt post, as any of us weenies post something like that, and we get called out for being stupid or not knowing what were talking about.  While I love snow as much as any, I'm not going to post the model that shows what I want it to at any given time...especially in a progressive pattern like the one we are heading into...not that I know what I'm talking about.

 

Rant over...its Christmas.  Still love being in this forum...we are a pretty good bunch if I must say so myself.  Enjoy the day all.

 

Nut

 

It's not even that, it's just that -- he's an orange tag, a pro forecaster and the other week he said something like "I'm giving it until January 1st and then el busto." and today it's "Winter cancel". We're four days into winter and an orange tag is calling it off? At the same time, CTP made a post on their facebook account about cold coming in to ring in the new year. I get it, that's a forecast for a short amount of time that's a week out but at this point, how can anybody justify saying the winter -- which is four days into season (Yes, I get that meteorological winter starts on December 1st, so what?) is going to go either way? I myself got permabanned form accuwx forums years back for attacking wishcasters who conducted themselves the way this guy does on here, only in the exact polar opposite.

 

The only other difference is that the people on accuweather referred to themselves as "Junior Meteorologists", which I translated to "Junior High". This guy allegedly makes forecasts for a living. I know he knows what he's talking about and at the very least, he cites a reason for his opinions and I appreciate that but the constant negativity has got to be stressful. He's the weather equivalent of an ER doctor looking at a sick person rolling in from the Ambulance and immediately calling the guy who performs the autopsy because his lips are blue. 

 

I just don't understand the "why".

 

</rant>

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heavy_wx

heavy_wx

Posted
Posted

28 degrees here this morning.

Any thoughts on this system here? I know it's GFS and a long ways out...

 

A quick look at the 06z GEFS implies a decent chance for a system in the 8-10 day period. As you said, it's far too early to know anything about how much if any precip falls and whether or not it will be frozen.

 

Looks like we're having the first mostly sunny day in central PA in what seems like 2 weeks!

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pirates21

pirates21

Posted
Posted

A quick look at the 06z GEFS implies a decent chance for a system in the 8-10 day period. As you said, it's far too early to know anything about how much if any precip falls and whether or not it will be frozen.

 

Looks like we're having the first mostly sunny day in central PA in what seems like 2 weeks!

What a beautiful early winter day.  As much as I love snow, about sixty of these beautiful sunny clear days would be fine with me until the end of March. Feel free to mix in a couple two foot snow storms on those other thirty days.

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted

Going to have to keep an eye on the period early next week for a light snow fall in the southern PA area. American models and Canadian vs Euro. Been watching that time frame since last week and still looks intriguing. Nothing too big, but it's something. With the fast flow across the country, it's tough for these models to have a full grip on the s/w pattern.

The Euro in the LR is pretty amazing with a monster storm burying the CPA region to the PA line and then ushering in the cold. Of course, it's only one run and there's still a ton of time left, but I'll be out of town from the 2nd to 9th at National AMS conference in Phoenix, so something will probably happen while I'm gone :D

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Blizzard92

Blizzard92

Posted
Posted

Going to have to keep an eye on the period early next week for a light snow fall in the southern PA area. American models and Canadian vs Euro. Been watching that time frame since last week and still looks intriguing. Nothing too big, but it's something. With the fast flow across the country, it's tough for these models to have a full grip on the s/w pattern.

The Euro in the LR is pretty amazing with a monster storm burying the CPA region to the PA line and then ushering in the cold. Of course, it's only one run and there's still a ton of time left, but I'll be out of town from the 2nd to 9th at National AMS conference in Phoenix, so something will probably happen while I'm gone :D

Heading down there too! I'm excited to actually get some sunshine for an extended stretch haha
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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

Hope everyone had a good Christmas. Well, the latter half of this month has been frustrating for winter weather lovers. I do see some positives going forward towards New Years and beyond. Cold air will return this week with a fairly decent shot making it into the commonwealth around mid week as a monster high (1056mb progged on Euro) drops into the north-central and Inter-Mountain West parts of the US. Tuesday and Wednesday look pretty cold this coming week before modifying some late week.

 

In terms of the bigger picture, significant arctic cold is going to be back on the playing field in Canada to be tapped down after being absent for a good portion of December. Driving this is a significant -EPO ridge in the East Pacific. However, this ridge axis has been progged too far west (creating a solidly -PNA) and that combined with a forecast +NAO is going to continue to leave us in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast very vulnerable for cutters, while the brunt of the cold dumps into the west and central parts of the country. And one can see this on the models as the GFS and Euro both have been pretty insistent on a GLC around next weekend's timeframe.

 

Given the pattern alignment, it's a pretty good likelihood that we're going to have to take yet another lakes cutter to the face. Afterwards it's hard to say what will happen.. last nights Euro after the cutter started bringing the Pac ridge into the West Coast states helping to push away the SE ridge and put us in a better storm track position. I do think we will eventually get some production in the snow department but it might be a work in progress for the first week or so of Jan. Our fast out of the gate start to winter back in November and the couple snow events we did have in a good part of our region has kept actual snow departures pretty manageable if not near average in the case of say..IPT. The places that likely have the biggest snow departures at the moment are in the Laurel Highlands region, where they have had very little in the way of actual lake effect/terrain enhanced events so far. When we did have the major cold air in place back in November, the more westerly to WSW oriented flow kept the big snows in the NW and most notably Buffalo of course. 

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

Thanks for summarizing your thoughts Mag.

 

 

Thanks Mag!! We will take them cutters...it all adds up at the end of the season.

 

Your welcome, I also should have added the disclaimer about the models being consistently inconsistent with things and making the mid range very difficult to deal with. The last few runs of the Euro have traded off the amplified storm to the lakes for a more progressive and more unphased southern wave that kicks out underneath PA while having more of a broader area of higher heights across the western states vs an anchored highly amplified ridge off the west coast. The 0z run the other night put PA in position for a decent size snow/mix event, while the last couple runs have been much weaker with the southern wave and keeping the brunt of precip south. The GFS has been maintaining a lakes cutter and today's Canadian has a low to the lakes with an attempted miller-B evolution. I don't have access to the fabled ||GFS but I think it had a pretty snowy solution last night for the Mid Atlantic and us (saw a snowmap over in the mid-atl thread).

 

At any rate, the models have a plethora of options for this potential weekend system now. I think we are still pretty vulnerable for a cutter if the northern stream gets involved too much. But a storm that cuts might still cause some freezing issues in portions of the region on the front end anyways as the low level cold probably hangs tough like it almost always does. This could end up being a sneaky event.  

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