djr5001 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 New thread = new luck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 So far even Mt.Pocono is reporting rain. Tricky storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 So far even Mt.Pocono is reporting rain. Tricky storm. Winds aloft are just starting to turn more northerly there as the system is strengthening... there is a warm layer above the surface that is killing the snow threat right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Djr I'm reading it'll be much easier to predict where any wrap snows may develop once it becomes apparent where low is going to slow down or stall. Is there any truth to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 Djr I'm reading it'll be much easier to predict where any wrap snows may develop once it becomes apparent where low is going to slow down or stall. Is there any truth to that? Well one of the key factors all along that was discussed the past few days was the timing of when the system would become vertically stacked and cut off from the flow. The trailing short wave energy has been diving in behind this system for the past few hours so becoming cut off is in progress, just not sure if there quite yet. Current radar looks to be showing a general idea of where the best chance for precip on the backside of the system will occur, but there really is not much in the way of cold air aloft that looks like it will be pulled southward from NY into PA over the next few hours. I just think the main bulk of precip has already pushed to the north and east of our area and while there may be some banding on the backside, by the time it changes back to snow it may be too late. By then, 1-2"/6hr rates are not going to be anywhere near heavy enough to accumulate on a wet soggy ground from the current rain showers across this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Winds aloft are just starting to turn more northerly there as the system is strengthening... there is a warm layer above the surface that is killing the snow threat right now... Yea this was always gonna have to be something that depended on heavy precip rates in the deform shield to help win the battle with the extremely marginal temps. So far northeastern PA is a work in progress with getting anything good organized. As difficult as it has been to nail details down in our area, it's even worse north of PA with that sneaky warm layer. My favorite find this morning up in the New England thread was someone's posting of part of NWS Burlington's (BTV) discussion this morning. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM EST TUESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD TRENDS AS OF 600 AM. ALSO RAISED MAX TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS THE SLV TODAY BASED OFF LATEST INFORMATION. REST OF FORECAST LARGELY UNCHANGED AND WE`RE MOVING INTO A WAIT AND SEE MODE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES. YOU CAN SLICE THE CAKE A HUNDRED DIFFERENT WAYS AND COME UP WITH A HUNDRED DIFFERENT ANSWERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Thanks djr, are we all done with precip.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Thanks djr, are we all done with precip.? Here was part of my post from the old thread this morning: Certainly the part of it with the main slug of moisture lifting to our east and north into far eastern PA and upstate NY, but it remains to be seen how much backlash snows we get back into the central counties later tonight and tomorrow. Not that I'm overly excited about the prospects of it but I think there's the potential for some places in the central counties to at least see an inch or two. The European has generally been much more generous with how much precip was thrown back so we'll see what happens. Here was CTP's take this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 of course the banding is going to actually set up over harrisburg for once... as rain... lol Several 2+ and 3+" rain reports in New Jersey with some flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Sun's out back this way haha. It's actually quite a nice afternoon out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 It's not even cold outside now, haha. Up to 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Sun's out back this way haha. It's actually quite a nice afternoon out. yep 41 with bright blue skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 This storm is Exhibit A as to what happens when coastal storms develop and close off too late. I'm surprised to see even high Poconos elevations with rain though-this is one horrible airmass that needs dynamics and a closed off low aloft to drag down cold air. Down here it's been a deluge all morning, 50 mph wind and I had this two streets away from me. Rain is still coming down in buckets-we have to be over 3" now total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Sun's out back this way haha. It's actually quite a nice afternoon out. Brightening skies here now. @JM Ugh, that looks brutal...and don't you guys have several more hours left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Brightening skies here now. @JM Ugh, that looks brutal...and don't you guys have several more hours left It looks to be about over but the damage is done. A pretty wide swath of town had at least some flooding today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Socked in cloudy and sprinkles here, precip just doesn't want to budge, but it's pretty much all rain anyway lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarks green snow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 34 and moderate rain up here in Clarks Green. BUST. Location didn't help and elevation didn't help. No mixing right now-plain rain. Update from BGM NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...1 PM UPDATE...SFC LOPRES HAS DROPPED DOWN TO NR 1000MB AS IT SPINS OFF THE JERSEYSHORE. MODERATE TO HVY PCPN IS ONGOING ACRS ERN HALF OF CWA ASEXPECTED BUT THERMAL PROFILES ARE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. SOME HIGHERELEVATION SITES ARE STILL RIGHT AT OR BLO FRZG AS OF 17Z WITH -FZRAFALLING AT THESE LOCATIONS AND HEARING ABOUT NUMEROUS MOTOR VEHICLEACCIDENTS.PCPN HAS ESSENTIALLY HIT A BRICK WALL AT THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND NOTEXPECTING THIS TO MV MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN WHERE IT CURRENTLY ISNOW UNTIL AFT 00Z. DEFORMATION BAND THAT THE MODELS WERE INSISTENTWUD ROTATE WEST THRU THE EVNG HRS IS NOW LOOKING TO BE A FRACTUREDBAND OF MIXED PCPN.H9 TEMPS PER LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATING BLYR TEMPS RMNG ISOTHERMALTHRU 21Z THIS AFTN AND VRY SLOWLY DROPPING BYND THIS TIME. EXPECT AMIXED BAG THRU BULK OF THE OVRNGT FOR SXNS EAST OF I-81 WITH CLD AIRBEING PULLED IN FM THE WEST. ANOTHER WV FCST TO MV THRU NRN ZONESAFT 06Z TONIGHT AND WITH MOISTURE FM LK ADDED IN EXPECT SVRL INCHESOF SNOW TO FALL ACRS THE FINGER LKS BY 12Z. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALLTHRU THE OVRNGT IS NOW LOOKING TO BE MEAGER WITH A GNRL INCH OR TWOACRS THE BULK OF THE AREA AND POSSIBLY 2-4 INCHES IN HIGHERELEVATIONS OF SUSQUEHANNA REGION. WL DRASTICALLY BE REDUCING SNOWTOTALS FOR THIS EVENT AND WL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO MAKE DECISION ONWHETHER TO CANCEL OR DROP WARNINGS DOWN TO ADVISORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 This was the boardwalk this morning on the other side of town. Nasty!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I keep hearing snow(I'm not talking more than an inch) chances through Thursday, but what is causing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 JM1220 That's the last thing you want to see when your expecting a snow storm. Standing rain water...Nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 looks like this one is busting bad all the way up into NY State. At least we're getting sun here now instead of the cold rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Lol sun peaking out here 20 min from precip shield. Everyone except NNE got the shaft!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Nice deform band of rain currently setting up in the I 83 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 looks like this one is busting bad all the way up into NY State. At least we're getting sun here now instead of the cold rain!Haha I will say it's quite nice out there...a hoody and jeans is plenty. Still holding on hope for at least a coating from the wraparound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 looks like this one is busting bad all the way up into NY State. At least we're getting sun here now instead of the cold rain! its even busting here in nj for rain amounts. suppose to be widespread 2 +. most of the state under 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 So far from this event I've gotten 0.14" of rain. Pathetic... And no, my backyard gauge isn't broken. This is from the USGS automated gauge about 1/4 mile from my house. Mine and theirs are exactly the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Wow Voyager. I'm at 0.70" for the event. Managed 0.10" ice accretion overnight and a trace of snow. The temp just touched 40 degrees. Pretty low end event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarks green snow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Turned to heavy sleet and then moderate wet snow in the past hour. Deform band setting up for the overnight up here!!!??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 LOL...hasn't rained a drop since my last post. I simply cannot believe we got so little so far from this thing. Lately, it's as if someone put a retractable roof over Tamaqua for when we have a major storm in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 LOL...hasn't rained a drop since my last post. I simply cannot believe we got so little so far from this thing. Lately, it's as if someone put a retractable roof over Tamaqua for when we have a major storm in the area. Tamaqua must be Pennsylvania's version of San Diego. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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