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December 9-10 Rainstorm with Ice N/W Obs


aldie 22

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Temp is 33. More ice on the higher ridges around town. Was hoping for at least a coating tonight but it's not looking too good. Probably just get some flurries.

yea, NAM is useless, we already knew but seriously...it showed a foot of snow for central PA last night, they got NOTHING...for 3 runs consistently showed a few inches from wraparound for our area, then suddenly this morning it shifts that band about 200 miles.  Even the 6z run was still hanging onto the idea of 2 feel in the poconos and now thats gone, I doubt they even get 5".  I still have friends from other areas that look at the NAM and get excited when it shows something and I dont get it, it seems to be more of a hindrance then a tool. 

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Storm Underperformed in terms of the main batch that was supposed to occur last night, but temps and precip from this morning through now are over performing IMO North and West.. A lot of these events always see the WWA/FZ Adv get extended by hours (sometimes multiple extensions). Rain is quite bandy, sun was peeking out in North Linthicum for a little while. GFS did good on this one, never really have anyone in our area over an inch of precip like NAM/SREF,/JMA and even UKMET(Euro?) were. NAM had some redicolous shifts in runs. Ban it. Anyways what happened to the 20 straight 3hr panels of precip Euro?

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Storm Underperformed in terms of the main batch that was supposed to occur last night, but temps and precip from this morning through now are over performing IMO North and West.. A lot of these events always see the WWA/FZ Adv get extended by hours (sometimes multiple extensions). Rain is quite bandy, sun was peeking out in North Linthicum for a little while. GFS did good on this one, never really have anyone in our area over an inch of precip like NAM/SREF,/JMA and even UKMET(Euro?) were. NAM had some redicolous shifts in runs. Ban it. Anyways what happened to the 20 straight 3hr panels of precip Euro?

Euro definitely was overdone here...it lead the way having the storm at all for days, but once inside 72 hours it was way overblown...had a few runs where parts of our area were close to 2" qpf.  From long range the Euro was king, but once inside 72 hours I would agree the GFS was the best but even that is just picking the best of a sorry lot, GFS had two runs where it was wound up and way west also.  None of the models really shined in the short term.  Perhaps that means we will have a "fun" season with lots of late season surprises...hopefully some good.

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LOL at what a meltdown we would have had if we were in the Poconos.  They were expecting 10-20" and so far they have only had about .25 qpf and its been all rain.  It's currently 33 and raining at Mt. Pocono.  They may get 1-3" from the wraparound but thats about it.  I am sure the handful of snow weenies in that area are in full tilt melt down mode right now. 

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LOL at what a meltdown we would have had if we were in the Poconos.  They were expecting 10-20" and so far they have only had about .25 qpf and its been all rain.  It's currently 33 and raining at Mt. Pocono.  They may get 1-3" from the wraparound but thats about it.  I am sure the handful of snow weenies in that area are in full tilt melt down mode right now. 

Pretty similar situation ongoing here in central New York. We were expecting 12"+ just east of Ithaca, and it is currently raining with a temperature of 36F. Sigh.

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Pretty similar situation ongoing here in central New York. We were expecting 12"+ just east of Ithaca and it is currently raining with a temperature of 36F. Sigh.

yea, the epic totals are not going to happen anywhere, but you may still do ok with the wraparound, this low is going to have a second life cycle tomorrow and you should get at least some decent snow from it.  But its been a bust just about all around.  Only place that may work out is higher elevations of VT and Maine

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