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Southern Ontario Winter '14-'15 Discussion


harrisale

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Mmm I do love a good wind event.

8:53 AM EST Wednesday 24 December 2014

Wind warning in effect for:

City of Toronto

Very strong wind gusts that may cause damage are expected or occurring.

A low pressure system over Western Kentucky will deepen quite quickly as it tracks north across Lake Huron on Christmas Eve then into Northeastern Ontario on Christmas Day. This low pressure area will blast a sharp cold front east across the regions tonight. Very strong southwesterly winds of 60 gusting to 90 km/h will herald the sudden arrival of this front tonight. The very strong winds will continue for a few hours after the passage of the front, then very slowly ease off a little by Christmas morning. A few gusts of 100 km/h will be quite likely in exposed areas, in regions near the Great Lakes, and over higher ground as well.

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Back to back years with widespread power loss around Christmas? We shall see.

 

Unfortunate timing yes but I'll take any exciting event I can get my hands on, particular with the recent pattern.

 

Pulling some impressive soundings for YYZ off the 12Z ARW. BUFKIT calculating momentum transfer of 64kts (upper range) to the surface at 4:00am tomorrow morning. That's only coming down from about 900mb.

 

You can really see the 'sting jet' by looking at 700mb RH values. Moist air wrapped around the low runs into that dry slot, the moisture evaporates and cools the air, causing it to sink and bring down those winds. Fun setup, probably won't sleep much tonight... bags under the eyes for family photos.

 

4sls1Zd.png

 

ZCusRVs.png

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Are we still looking at 90-100kmh wind gusts tonight? An unsual lack of hype going on

 

 Its because this stinks and there was nothing until midnight that was any good. It is 2014, the worst weather year so I guess its fitting that we get the ultimate slap in the face right on Christmas rather than a historic weather bomb and blizzard. Something exciting and insane can't happen to round-off the ugliness that is 2014, nope.

 

 Its now on and the winds are blowing good. I'm getting modest blowing snow that is starting to accumulate on the grass. The temperature dropped very rapidly and then at midnight the wind gusts turned on like a switch. Then 20 minutes later the snow flakes started. At 2:00 am it started collecting slightly on the roads but now its melting more on surfaces. The sustained wind is not that impressive but some alright gusts every 20-30 minutes. Of note I got no thunder or lightning of any kind at all. I do wonder about possible LES (that is the last hope), not holding my breath for it at all.

 

I had a good chuckle at EC's statements and warnings, like "it tracks north tonighte" in the wind warning and not knowing how to use the º special character for temperatures. The SWS mentions Santa more than a few times and how his ride will be affected which I deeply care about lol.

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Don't think 100km/h is going to be widespread but would expect to see some isolated reports. Majority of S. ONm likey in the 85-90 range for peak gusts. Would expect strongest winds around 3-5am.

2:15 AM EST Thursday 25 December 2014
Wind warning ended for:

Bruce Peninsula - Sauble Beach - Tobermory
Hanover - Dundalk - Southern Grey County
Owen Sound - Blue Mountains - Northern Grey County
Saugeen Shores - Kincardine - Southern Bruce County

EC throwing in the towel for many parts of mid-western and SW Ontario. I was surprised that beyond 12:50 am there wasn't much wind compared with the first half hour of the day as most short-range guidance had the highest gusts right around 1:00 am and beyond.

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Environment Canada released its Top Ten Weather stories for 2014. I recommend all you guys have a look at this. It was an amazing read to say the least. No doubt 2014 was an interesting year for Weather. After an enduring cold Winter, we experienced such similar conditions in the summer leaving many to think if we were ever going to see any warmth. But despite this, we all found ways to enjoy the crazy weather and cope with whatever Mother nature threw at us.

 

http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?lang=En&n=C8D88613-1

 

Merry Christmas Everyone! 

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2:15 AM EST Thursday 25 December 2014
Wind warning ended for:

Bruce Peninsula - Sauble Beach - Tobermory
Hanover - Dundalk - Southern Grey County
Owen Sound - Blue Mountains - Northern Grey County
Saugeen Shores - Kincardine - Southern Bruce County

EC throwing in the towel for many parts of mid-western and SW Ontario. I was surprised that beyond 12:50 am there wasn't much wind compared with the first half hour of the day as most short-range guidance had the highest gusts right around 1:00 am and beyond.

 

 

Yeah things let up a little earlier than I had expected. Best winds were probably between midnight and 3am. Still fun to watch but a bit of a let down. The best winds occurred over a somewhat narrower corridor than progged, but the models still nailed the general area, which was the Niagara peninsula.

 

There was one 57kt gust in Port Colborne though. I got to see one flash in the sky and heard a rumble, so that was cool on December 24th.

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Sounds about right. Looks like it's lifting north towards your hood.

 

Nah, the Sun is out in my area, lol. Had a dusting this morning though. It may feel like Winter, but it doesn't look like Winter sadly. 

 

Whats your initial thoughts on the weekend storm? 12z GFS looks like another piss tank. I'm losing my edge with this Winter now, lol. Cold-rain-cold is not fun. 

 

Happy New Years btw! 

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The November wind storm caused $90 million in damage in ON/QC. 

 

http://london.ctvnews.ca/november-storm-damage-in-ontario-and-quebec-tops-90m-1.2166588

 

And I wasn't even here to experience it, probably one of the highlights of the year (and there was so few of them) and I missed it, go figure. I'm counting down the hours because I've never been so eager to get off a year like this one. That article was comprised of just 3 short sentences...

 

I got long steady snows (small flake size) from the lake overnight which ended up at 7 cm. I could get as much as 46 cm in the next 7 days. I highly doubt it.

 

fcipeu.png

 

The first radar image of 2015. Nice band that never seems to be on me to the north. Getting the same thing as last night with dense tiny flakes being whipped by gusty conditions. Its not accumulating well.

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And I wasn't even here to experience it, probably one of the highlights of the year (and there was so few of them) and I missed it, go figure. I'm counting down the hours because I've never been so eager to get off a year like this one. That article was comprised of just 3 short sentences...

 

CTV is notorious for their basic headlining and exceptionally short articles. 

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http://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=wkr

Some snow moving in based on the radar. Could pick 1-3cm locally if the band holds together.

 

The first wave moved through here a few hours ago that is now hitting north Toronto as it pushes east and dips. I just happened to be reading the historic Buffalo LES thread from November on here as I was getting hit with it  :poster_oops: . It gave me a quick 4 cm which was weird...I was wondering where that came from until I found out what I missed  :fulltilt: . Under a snow squall warning right now.

 

Here are some radar shots of this quick LES:

 

2rzx4c2.png

24ypkzn.png

2q9cosm.png

6pau78.png

qoahs7.png

 

I timed the passage perfectly down to the moment for the south moving northern bands. Sky was pink for that small prong with flurries, then black sky again which is that break that I circled in the 3rd image. Sky then got lighter and lighter until light snow and I thought the intensifying to moderate or borderline heavy snow was going to be more gradual then it actually was...at 12:55 am it changed from light to heavy in about 1.5 minutes and from moderate to heavy in literally a half second; in a blink of an eye! Just turning away for a minute and you could miss it. It faded too fast, only got a few moments of excitement when it was ripping <_< . What I'd give to have a Buffalo/Tug Hill style destroyer on me.

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