harrisale Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 National Post now reporting on 'Santabomb'... http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/12/19/santabomb-storm-may-be-nightmare-before-christmas-for-ontario/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 National Post now reporting on 'Santabomb'... http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/12/19/santabomb-storm-may-be-nightmare-before-christmas-for-ontario/ Not even going to click the link. In the internet/social media era, the meteorological profession (especially broadcast meteorology) has to come up with a code of conduct/professional standards to deal with this stuff. It's getting worse every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Not even going to click the link. In the internet/social media era, the meteorological profession (especially broadcast meteorology) has to come up with a code of conduct/professional standards to deal with this stuff. It's getting worse every year. All started with polar vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Not even going to click the link. In the internet/social media era, the meteorological profession (especially broadcast meteorology) has to come up with a code of conduct/professional standards to deal with this stuff. It's getting worse every year. And many local facebook weather pages are the worst. It really is a disgrace to the meteorological community. Sadly, much of the general public would follow one of these atrocious facebook pages before going to the local NWS (or EC) site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 And many local facebook weather pages are the worst. It really is a disgrace to the meteorological community. Sadly, much of the general public would follow one of these atrocious facebook pages before going to the local NWS (or EC) site. It really does tarnish the science to some degree. Sadly, the general public has little to no understanding of statistics and modelling theory. As great as sites such as WxBell are for meteorologists, I fear that easy access to model runs/graphics in combination with lack of understanding and the use of social media have made the spread of misinformation far too common. You'd think these would be great tools but in reality have proven that meteorology and forecasting should be left strictly to the experts and those trained to properly interpret the data. The number of media outlets covering this storm 5-6 days out is staggering, especially since details haven't become clear yet. </rant> In other news, quite the nice December day today. Bright blues skies, which is a welcome change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Eye candy on the 12z EPS Control. Save worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Eye candy on the 12z EPS Control. Save worthy. eps_slp_c_east_24.png Would trade that for a lump of coal in my stocking for the rest of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 All started with polar vortex The fixation on that term drove me up the wall last winter. The media was trying to make it sound like we were living the movie "The Day After Tomorrow". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The fixation on that term drove me up the wall last winter. The media was trying to make it sound like we were living the movie "The Day After Tomorrow". The media blows everything out of proportion. They turned the cold winters of the 60s and 70s into a new upcoming Ice age, and then by the 80's they changed scripts. I never bother with the media. They always twist the actual story into something totally different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Xmas day storm is over for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Xmas day storm is over for us? Toronto and the lower lakes, yup (in terms of accum. snowfall potential). Belts still in play but the thing you have to be concerned about are: 1. System is being progged to slow down now. That'll delay the advection of air cold enough for LES, and 2. System seems to be trending further west. That'll be more conducive for a W/WSW flow once the cold air does deepen, steering the brunt of the Huron LES towards Grey-Bruce and Parry Sound-Muskoka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Environment Canada issues a Special weather statement for Southern ontario. There statement is very allusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Environment Canada issues a Special weather statement for Southern ontario. There statement is very allusive. Allusive of what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Allusive of what? I don't know, I just found it funny and ambiguous. Must be the midnight blues getting to me. Ignore that, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I don't know, I just found it funny and ambiguous. Must be the midnight blues getting to me. Ignore that, lol. Unnecessary. That's the adjective that comes to mind regarding that SWS. Unless they were impelled to issue it because social media is still spreading misinformation about this "santabomb". Don't know. Don't have facebook and rarely follow twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 BTW off topic, but besides the surprise snowstorm on Dec 11th, which melted away in 4 days, this Winter's stinks. I know compared to others were in a relatively good position to start-off, but without any sustained cold air, this Winter is edging away on its heels. Hopefully January offers more excitement, but I don't see the potential for any SSW (Sudden stratospheric warming) just yet. Although, the models do show a potent warming taking place in the Stratosphere in the coming weeks so lets see. We need it to split the PV so we can get a consistent -AO anomaly and cross polar flow. With the AAM dropping and the GWO retaining itself in a lower state, we may see a hybrid La Nina like pattern developing. You can already see the signs on the GFS (SE Ridge, Alaskan ridge, etc). The atmosphere has sort of bundled into a hybrid La Nina like state since the big 10-11 La Nina. El Nino's can cough up bigger storms however, because of there connection with the subtropical jet stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Unnecessary. That's the adjective that comes to mind regarding that SWS. Unless they were impelled to issue it because social media is still spreading misinformation about this "santabomb". Don't know. Don't have facebook and rarely follow twitter. Yeah I guess there just trying to keep the public safe because of the mishap that happened about 1-2 weeks ago. Either way it does look like were going to get atleast 20-30mm of rain out of this which is decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 BTW off topic, but besides the surprise snowstorm on Dec 11th, which melted away in 4 days, this Winter's stinks. I know compared to others were in a relatively good position to start-off, but without any sustained cold air, this Winter is edging away on its heels. Hopefully January offers more excitement, but I don't see the potential for any SSW (Sudden stratospheric warming) just yet. Although, the models do show a potent warming taking place in the Stratosphere in the coming weeks so lets see. We need it to split the PV so we can get a consistent -AO anomaly and cross polar flow. With the AAM dropping and the GWO retaining itself in a lower state, we may see a hybrid La Nina like pattern developing. You can already see the signs on the GFS (SE Ridge, Alaskan ridge, etc). The atmosphere has sort of bundled into a hybrid La Nina like state since the big 10-11 La Nina. El Nino's can cough up bigger storms however, because of there connection with the subtropical jet stream. My guess is few in the GTA would agree with you. I know I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Yeah I guess there just trying to keep the public safe because of the mishap that happened about 1-2 weeks ago. Either way it does look like were going to get atleast 20-30mm of rain out of this which is decent.Winter just started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 After December 2011 and December 2012, I will absolutely not complain about December 2014. Due to seasonal lag from the lakes, December is rarely the heart of winter. Honestly after last winter I am so tired of cold. I will take a winter of above normal temperatures and above normal snowfall any day of the week Hopefully the above normal snowfall pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Honestly, after last winter, I should have known that this winter would be milder. Nature always seems to be searching for balance and, if you look back, cold winters are often followed the year after by a mild winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 EC forecast has chance of tstorms across Southwestern Ontario on Christmas Eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 EC forecast has chance of tstorms across Southwestern Ontario on Christmas Eve Models have a little bit of elevated CAPE making its way into the southern portion of the province between 00Z and 03Z on Xmas eve. Surface winds are quite veered which should generate some low-level shear as well. Wouldn't be surprised to see at least a few claps of thunder but I think the gust potential will be the most interesting aspect of things. Gusts in the 70-85km/h range not out of the question. Line will be fast-moving. SPC on-board with the thunder potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Models have a little bit of elevated CAPE making its way into the southern portion of the province between 00Z and 03Z on Xmas eve. Surface winds are quite veered which should generate some low-level shear as well. Wouldn't be surprised to see at least a few claps of thunder but I think the gust potential will be the most interesting aspect of things. Gusts in the 70-85km/h range not out of the question. SPC on-board with the thunder potential. I checked BUF and DTX, but didn't think to check the SPC out of winter habit. Awesome outlook for Christmas. Obviously not the same, but January 7 2008 comes to mind for winter thunderstorms SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 10:26 PM EST MONDAY 7 JANUARY 2008. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO... TORNADO WATCH FOR: =NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT =NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON. A SQUALL LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 I checked BUF and DTX, but didn't think to check the SPC out of winter habit. Awesome outlook for Christmas. Obviously not the same, but January 7 2008 comes to mind for winter thunderstorms H85 winds look decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 If you haven't seen the new day 2 yet you really need to! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Can understand the SPC upgrade. 4km-NAM showing an area of 70kt winds at 850mb, even a couple 75kt wind barbs in there. Again this is right when the low-topped convection would be passing through so some potential does exist for 55-60kt winds to mix down in some of the biggest downdrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yeah I agree with the expansion of the severe risk tomorrow. I do think it won't take much to bring down winds especially withe the frontal band coming through at peak heating tomorrow and Temps in the mid 50s here with 60+ in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 23, 2014 Author Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yeah I agree with the expansion of the severe risk tomorrow. I do think it won't take much to bring down winds especially withe the frontal band coming through at peak heating tomorrow and Temps in the mid 50s here with 60+ in Ohio. And as mentioned in the SPC discussion even for areas further north and east which won't have the advantage of peak heating, the system will be strengthening as it pulls away which should partially offset the lack of buoyancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Liking the D6-7 storm threat. 12z Euro had a 6-8" swath running from Fort Erie-YYZ-YUL. Ensembles also on board quite strongly before vodka cold moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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