Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Southern Ontario Winter '14-'15 Discussion


harrisale

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Congrats to the GTA crew!  I would tease you about the lowball predictions posted here, but I don't I could get under your skin with 15-25 cm snows throughout the area. A good bust.

 

SSC, I would like to see a rough map if you get a chance.

I was going to do the same...lowballing or assuming a 10-1 ratio in a deform band is NEVER a good idea in my opinion, but to be fair to them, Toronto has busted many times (the bad kind) in recent years, so some pessimism may be granted this time :P. Not so sure about the next one though, may be time to give up the pessimistic ghost for SSC :lol:

 

This storm was weird all around, but in a regular storm I usually look forward to the deform band more than the main storm. Feb 5, 2014 is an example. The storm itself sort of was lame (2"-3") then the deform gave a surprise 5-6" additional. The depth was 20" and I was in a dream world. One of my favorite days of last winter (of which there are many).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest Weather summary from EC. YYZ recorded 17cm which is consistent with surrounding stations. 

 

Richmond Hill 22 (off duty meteorologist)
Vaughan 20 (volunteer observer)
Buttonville Airport 22
Thornhill 17 (volunteer observer)
Toronto York university 20 (volunteer observer)
Toronto Etobicoke 20 (off duty meteorologist)
Toronto Downsview 22 (Environment Canada)
Toronto Pearson Airport 17
Toronto riverdale 24 (off duty meteorologist)
Toronto East York 20 (volunteer observer)
Toronto (scarborough) 16
Brampton 23 (off duty meteorologist)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's the map. I was going to add cities and counties but I've run out of time this Friday night. Anybody feel free to modify.

 

Huge paucity of data points across the swath of SE Ontario between Peterborough and Kingston. I interpolated those 4-6" amounts but it may be off. Does sort of seem to fit the evolution of the storm. One maxima across far eastern Ontario with the pre-occlusion nor'easter, and then a second maxima from Georgian Bay through Toronto into the Niagara peninsula along the post-occlusion trowal/NNW flow LES enhancement zone. Very tight cutoff on the western flank of the defo zone.

 

post-257-0-75141400-1418425105_thumb.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's the map. I was going to add cities and counties but I've run out of time this Friday night. Anybody feel free to modify.

 

Huge paucity of data points across the swath of SE Ontario between Peterborough and Kingston. I interpolated those 4-6" amounts but it may be off. Does sort of seem to fit the evolution of the storm. One maxima across far eastern Ontario with the pre-occlusion nor'easter, and then a second maxima from Georgian Bay through Toronto into the Niagara peninsula along the post-occlusion trowal/NNW flow LES enhancement zone. Very tight cutoff on the western flank of the defo zone.

 

attachicon.gifDec112014SOsnow.jpg

Very nicely done. Your dedication is appreciated.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking further ahead the D8-D9 potential does look pretty interesting at this point. It is a bit of a thread the needle type setup with the prairies ridge, so the system will need to make its own cold air but the ensembles do support what the EC/GFS are showing, with a system cutting up towards the eastern lakes and then bowling due east or transferring. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's the map. I was going to add cities and counties but I've run out of time this Friday night. Anybody feel free to modify.

 

Huge paucity of data points across the swath of SE Ontario between Peterborough and Kingston. I interpolated those 4-6" amounts but it may be off. Does sort of seem to fit the evolution of the storm. One maxima across far eastern Ontario with the pre-occlusion nor'easter, and then a second maxima from Georgian Bay through Toronto into the Niagara peninsula along the post-occlusion trowal/NNW flow LES enhancement zone. Very tight cutoff on the western flank of the defo zone.

 

attachicon.gifDec112014SOsnow.jpg

 

Added county names for reference. Awesome map, SSC!

 

post-277-0-10455600-1418487374_thumb.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some official GTA snow totals from the Environment Canada climate data site for the Dec. 11th storm:

Pearson Airport (YYZ): 17.4 cm

Downtown Toronto (U of T): 22.0 cm

East York: 20.4 cm

North York (EC headquarters at Dufferin and Steeles): 22.5 cm

Buttonville Airport data is not online yet.

 

Has the downtown data been updated quicker this winter thus far in comparison to the last couple? Or is there still 7-10+ day lags.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm shocked that Toronto and other parts of eastern Ontario got that much snow, totally caught me off guard too. In southern Bruce and Grey counties, nothing except a trace and in elevated areas maybe some cms. This December for me has been incredibly boring and quiet, no snow on the ground pretty much for weeks. There was a major wintery week in November which is the only taste of anything good so far here. Beeton ON got 34 cm...imagine that?

 

My interest in my foremost passion of weather is continuing to decline greatly due to 2014's dominate pattern which I can say is my kryptonite. I just feel weird when I'm not obsessed with it, like a part of me is gone or on hiatus which sucks. I tend to not be as happy either and boy was 2014 a slummer of a year. However I had a dream out of the blue a few days ago where it was Spring or early Summer and there were powerful thunderstorms looming. I've had this before, its warm and it has me in situations where I see many different views and areas in southern Ontario looking at the dark skies. Something of an all day event where there is a unknown aspect to what is about to come, but not boring. What excites me is a very specific circumstance or environment of severe weather and most of everything else doesn't "hit the spot" (what I'm feeling right now, not overall).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pouring flakes. Pavement wet but grass is covered.

got around around 2cm here. Doesn't sound like much but its a wonder what 2cm can do to a landscape, went from wet and dirty looking to a light covering of snow on all the trees/lawns/roofs. Looked like Oakville-Hamilton could have had a chance at a bit more judging from the radar. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...