snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Cool to watch the King City radar loop and watch the squalls coming west down L. Ontario getting rock to clock the Hamilton area. Capture.JPG Interesting area of enhancement. Even some -SN making it to the Toronto lakeshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Cool to watch the King City radar loop and watch the squalls coming west down L. Ontario getting rock to clock the Hamilton area. Capture.JPG Too bad winds werent out of the East or SE, otherwise Toronto would've cashed in, but Hamilton about to get rocked. This storm has similar characteristics to the Feb 2007 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Out to 12 hours the 12Z GFS looks to stay the same for the Low's position, but the heavier percip has inched further north with this run. May have a slight increase in QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 STL currently reporting winds out of the SE. Mesoanalysis has the low level centre just N of Columbia,MO so definitely N of a lot of model forecasts from last night. Current pressure falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Out to 12 hours the 12Z GFS looks to stay the same for the Low's position, but the heavier percip has inched further north with this run. May have a slight increase in QPF. Yup, only have the low res graphics, but looks like the city gets solidly north of 0.50", and probably 0.60". 0.75" line may get as far north as Oakville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 No bump by EC with the 11am forecast. Not even into the 10-15cm range, which is a slam dunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 GFS looks GOOD! 0.7 line appears to be in south Mississauga. Eyeballing 0.65 potentially for south GTA. Also, King City Radar looking very interesting for some potential pre-event bonus stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yup, only have the low res graphics, but looks like the city gets solidly north of 0.50", and probably 0.60". 0.75" line may get as far north as Oakville. Writing is on the wall for a legit snowstorm around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 12z NAM COBB has a mean ratio of 20:1 with 0.61" of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Writing is on the wall for a legit snowstorm around here. Yeah, I'm going to bump my amounts into the 6-10" range. 6 or 7" north, 9 or 10" right by Lk Ontario. I'm really not seeing any red flags not to. Looks like 8-14" is a good bet for southern Halton, Hamilton and Niagara. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 5-10cm still for us all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 12z NAM COBB has a mean ratio of 20:1 with 0.61" of liquid.Looks great for a widespread 7-9" snowstorm in the region. It all comes down to how long and strong the deformation bands are in terms if timing and strength, respectively.Whats your take on ratios? Current analysis bodes well for 15:1 and 18:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks great for a widespread 7-9" snowstorm in the region. It all comes down to how long and strong the deformation bands are in terms if timing and strength, respectively. Whats your take on ratios? Current analysis bodes well for 15:1 and 18:1. Somewhere around 15:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 5-10cm still for us all! I'm guessing (read: hoping) that in the text of the SWS they're going to mention the possibility for higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Threw us a bone: "There is a potential that this system may track slightly farther to the north. If it does, the winter storm warning currently in affect farther south may be extended north." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm guessing (read: hoping) that in the text of the SWS they're going to mention the possibility for higher amounts. Last line says winter storm warnings may be needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Issue a damn watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 As usual, EC is too late in warning the public in a more timely manner. Better hope that budget fixes some of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Somewhere around 15:1. Yeah I think 20:1 is pretty high but that's not to say it isnt possible. Atmosphere is ripe for high ratios in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'll never understand them. Barely severe thunderstorm they'll warn hundreds of miles around it. Winter storm and they beat around the bush until it's too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'll never understand them. Barely severe thunderstorm they'll warn hundreds of miles around it. Winter storm and they beat around the bush until it's too late. No one's perfect, and I'm willing to give anyone a mulligan, but this is a recurring story with them. Ever since the bust on GHD 4 years ago to this date, they've been unduly gun shy, to the public's detriment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 No one's perfect, and I'm willing to give anyone a mulligan, but this is a recurring story with them. Ever since the bust on GHD 4 years ago to this date, they've been unduly gun shy, to the public's detriment. Was it January last year they had the freezing rain warning even tho it was looking all snow? they finally changed to snowfall warning after 15cm was already down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Got a few rogue flakes flying here in central Etobicoke from the LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Got a few rogue flakes flying here in central Etobicoke from the LES. Here too. Looks prime for -SN conditions south of Eglinton come noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Legit -SN here in midtown!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm on Dundas right now, near Islington and there's some light flurries here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like the accumulating synoptic snow has reached a south of Goderich to Hamilton line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Per mesoanalysis, winds are NNE in our region, so I'm surprised we're getting much lake input in Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Per twitter winter storm warning imminent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Per twitter winter storm warning imminent Not surprising. Got some flakes flying here in Mississauga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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