Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'll go with a final call of 4-6" in my backyard. Obviously hoping for 6", but I live in the northern end of the city so have to be realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Was contemplating it, but I think I'll stay put at ~6". Strong winds may cut down the ratios and I'm wary that the models may be overestimating QPF by too much. That being said, we look to be in a prime spot for localized banding along the trowal feature. If that banding sets up, we could definitely get deep into your range. But too many ??? regarding exact location to boost my amounts. Agree completely. The NAM could easily be too aggressive with QPF like it often is but the 700mb defo zone is in a very nice position right along the 401 so perhaps models aren't handling this properly(they rarely do). I could see this ending up as a 0.35-0.4" QPF event with 13:1 ratios in and absolute worst case scenario which would still bring us close to 6". Obviously room to go much higher than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Temperature down to -13.4C at my place. Dynamics are great for some nice deformation bands to setup. Hard to pinpoint the exact location, but somebody in the GTA, outside of Hamilton/Burlington, is going to cash in nicely. Calling for 18cm (+/-3) in the region. I don't know about the 12z Nam, but the 6z Nam had 0.50-0.55 raw qpf for Toronto. Closer to 0.6 on the 12Z. I don't think anyone in the GTA is going to reach 10" but we'll see if ratios and banding surprise. I'm cautiously pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Agree completely. The NAM could easily be too aggressive with QPF like it often is but the 700mb defo zone is in a very nice position right along the 401 so perhaps models aren't handling this properly(they rarely do). I could see this ending up as a 0.35-0.4" QPF event with 13:1 ratios in and absolute worst case scenario which would still bring us close to 6". Obviously room to go much higher than that. Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Measuring's going to be a b**ch with this one. We're going to get a lot of weenie reports of 14-18" me thinks from people measuring right by their houses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Measuring's going to be a b**ch with this one. We're going to get a lot of weenie reports of 14-18" me thinks from people measuring right by their houses. Something tells me south Vaughan is going to do very well with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Something tells me south Vaughan is going to do very well with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 9z SREF still going big. 16" at YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Closer to 0.6 on the 12Z. I don't think anyone in the GTA is going to reach 10" but we'll see if ratios and banding surprise. I'm cautiously pessimistic. Wouldn't be surprised if we see an overachiever somewhere like the Feb 2014 storm. Deformation bands will help our cause and high ratios. Decided to measure this storm in two methods. One, using the old fashioned way and two, the Nipher way. Found a pot in my garage that resembles the Nipher haha. I don't live to far from Toronto. Near Highway 7 and Pine valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 For entertainment purposes only...9z SREFs in: 0.77" mean QPF, 17.8" mean snowfall. Obvious, BS, but what I've noticed is how all the members have begun to cluster around the mean. Lowest member has 9.7". Numbers are too high, but I like the agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 15z SREF still going big. 16" at YYZ. updated version even bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Definite north shift with the 0.50" isohyet. Hamilton looks to be crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Has the SREF ever been right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Multiple boards cleared and ready to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 9z SREF still going big. 16" at YYZ. A little too much, but they've been consistent on showing heavier amounts. However, I dont think thats possible. The most I see in the GTA is 11" and thats if we see deformation bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Multiple boards cleared and ready to go. Which part of the city are you in? Are you near YYZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 What time is the snow expected to start in the GTA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Which part of the city are you in? Are you near YYZ? Bathurst and Wilson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Already down to -12.7*C at YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 What time is the snow expected to start in the GTA? Early evening. Heaviest rates after 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Has the SREF ever been right? Maybe for events under 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Hearing reports of over an inch of snow already in and around London METAR CYXU 011500Z 04007KT 1 1/4SM -SN VV007 M08/M10 A3018 RMK SN8 SLP237= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Solid increase on the RGEM. Gets the 15mm line right up to the Toronto lakeshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 SSC beat me to it. Increase in QPF on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 btw...notice how all the models have that little minima between London and KW. I'm thinking that's some kind of reverse downsloping with NE winds. I know Mike (on_wx) has reported that he sometimes struggles with accumulations in NE wind events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 btw...notice how all the models have that little minima between London and KW. I'm thinking that's some kind of reverse downsloping with NE winds. I know Mike (on_wx) has reported that he sometimes struggles with accumulations in NE wind events. Canuck, it looks like London could get buried by this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Canuck, it looks like London could get buried by this! There in a better spot than us in Toronto, but I don't think I'm at any risk of missing out on my 2 footer. I'd forecast 20-30cm for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Solid increase on the RGEM. Gets the 15mm line right up to the Toronto lakeshore. SLP centre gets just SW of Erie, PA for a time near 9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Cool to watch the King City radar loop and watch the squalls coming west down L. Ontario getting rock to clock the Hamilton area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 SLP centre gets just SW of Erie, PA for a time near 9z. I just looked at the 12z RGEM. If it verifies, Toronto could make a run at 8"/20cm. Even Ottawa gets into the snow, I'd say maybe 2" for them. Quite the north shift! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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