snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Radar starting to fill in nicely for SW Ontario. It's fun to see it at our doorstep. Tonight is going to be a bad night for sleep... Looks like the accumulating snow has reach a Grand Bend-London-Long Point line. If we can push up the start time here to around 4pm, I think that'd be a positive sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Glad most of you will get 6"+ out of this. It looked discouraging for u guys just 24 hrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The short range modelling are suggesting winds gusts to 50kph in TO proper with some gusts reaches 90kph across St Catherines, grimsby and Hamilton downwind of Lk On. We may see YHM meet blizzard criteria if that pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like the accumulating snow has reach a Grand Bend-London-Long Point line. If we can push up the start time here to around 4pm, I think that'd be a positive sign. Flakes starting to fly here. It appears SW of TO is the place to be for this storm, but as always seeing is believing. It would be nice to have some faith in some of the model output, but colour me sceptical. Been burned too often in synoptic storms. When do classes at Western resume for you SSC? A 401 commute later today with the storm in place would be a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Temp down to -8.6c at Pearson with a north wind gusting to 40kph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The current DGZ is pushing 500mb in depth. Mid level temp profiles will be very important as omega is pretty low AOB 800mb meaning that any cooling of sfc temps beyond this point will only hurt ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Chris Scott of TWN seems to think that the fgen band may overachieve for the GTA despite QPF amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The HRRR develops a pretty potent LE band by ~18z around grimsby which slowly drifts east and then settles over East Hamilton by the evening. This could be the area that makes a run at a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Chris Scott tweet mentions possibility of blizzard conditions even into Kitchener tonight. Updated TWN snow map has the city in the 15-25cm range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Chris Scott of TWN seems to think that the fgen band may overachieve for the GTA despite QPF amounts. The possibility of a 2/5/14 type bust is definitely drifting in the back of my mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Chris Scott @ChrisScottWx 6m6 minutes ago @dave_sills Happy New Year! Do you have any pull with the svr wx desk? Think this needs at least a watch for Miss/Toronto. Big storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Chris Scott of TWN seems to think that the fgen band may overachieve for the GTA despite QPF amounts. Hey Dan, what's your call for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Hey Dan, what's your call for this storm? Right now I'm going with 6-9" or 15-23cm for Toronto. I am concerned that the defo band is further north than modelled which would put the GTA right in the crosshairs for big snow. Am waiting to see if 12z NAM will confirm this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Right now I'm going with 6-9" or 15-23cm for Toronto. I am concerned that the defo band is further north than modelled which would put the GTA right in the crosshairs for big snow. Am waiting to see if 12z NAM will confirm this. Was discussing this with Chris Scott and a few others on twitter and I tend to agree. HRRR looks locked and loaded as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Was discussing this with Chris Scott and a few others on twitter and I tend to agree. HRRR looks locked and loaded as well. hrrr_ref_ne_16.png Yeah I was reading your discussion. Keep it up! Honestly these type of systems always surprise so let's see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Was discussing this with Chris Scott and a few others on twitter and I tend to agree. HRRR looks locked and loaded as well. hrrr_ref_ne_16.png It looks like the main precip is clearly Hamilton/SW Ont. GTA may pick up a decent band or so but I don't see how GTA will have comparable totals to those currently in the WSW. Maybe a Watch should be up but I think the chances of the GTA reaching WSW criteria are really low unless the winds are stronger than forecast. Unless this system bumps north (and currently it's right where it's been modelled by pretty much every model), our QPF isn't going to change much. Temperatures are absolutely plummeting at YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Really have to watch where the 850mb low tracks. Usually in these kinds of situations, models are too far south with it. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Really have to watch where the 850mb low tracks. Usually in these kinds of situations, models are too far south with it. We'll see. Really? I don't find that to be the case usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Alan, I'll be back in London next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 As of what I'm seeing right now, the models seem to be on track. Nothing really screaming out to me that there's going to be a sig. northerly or southerly adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Alan, I'll be back in London next weekend. For some reason I was thinking you were just finishing slack week, not starting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 For some reason I was thinking you were just finishing slack week, not starting it. 7th year in post-secondary school and this is the first time i've experience "slack week" (as you so humorously called it) the first week of Feb. Usually it's the 3rd week in Feb. But Ontario law schools have to be quirky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 7th year in post-secondary school and this is the first time i've experience "slack week" (as you so humorously called it) the first week of Feb. Usually it's the 3rd week in Feb. But Ontario law schools have to be quirky. Doesn't everybody call it "slack week"?? That's what we all called it waaaay back when I went to Western. You're following this storm thread closely so it can't all be work, no? j/k Seven years in post high school........wow - you must be way more studious than me. I took a year off of school and worked in Edmonton as I needed the break from school. Now after a long work career, I am contemplating retirement......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 12z NAM has a 0.6"+ contour along the lake and in through parts of the west end including Mississauga. All of the GTA is AOA 0.5". Best run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Doesn't everybody call it "slack week"?? That's what we all called it waaaay back when I went to Western. You're following this storm thread closely so it can't all be work, no? j/k Seven years in post high school........wow - you must be way more studious than me. I took a year off of school and worked in Edmonton as I needed the break from school. Now after a long work career, I am contemplating retirement......... No, I'm a lot dumber than you. 28 years old and never held a job in my life for longer than 6 months. Never made any real money. I'm the poster boy for what's wrong with province's economy (among other things). Anyways...this is a convo for PM or another time. Looks like the 12z NAM gave us that little boost in QPF that we were waiting for yesterday at 0z. Delayed but not denied. Time to rock n roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Bumping my call to 6-9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Bumping my call to 6-9". Was contemplating it, but I think I'll stay put at ~6". Strong winds may cut down the ratios and I'm wary that the models may be overestimating QPF by too much. That being said, we look to be in a prime spot for localized banding along the trowal feature. If that banding sets up, we could definitely get deep into your range. But too many ??? regarding exact location to boost my amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 And my call is for + 1/2" near Lk Ontario, so actually, I think our calls are basically the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Temperature down to -13.4C at my place. Dynamics are great for some nice deformation bands to setup. Hard to pinpoint the exact location, but somebody in the GTA, outside of Hamilton/Burlington, is going to cash in nicely. Calling for 18cm (+/-3) in the region. I don't know about the 12z Nam, but the 6z Nam had 0.50-0.55 raw qpf for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 12Z NAM is definitely an improvement but no magical changes. Quite consistent. Low is a hair further west on its approach and we get stronger winds and longer extended precip. Blowing snow could be a real concern during tomorrow's rush hour commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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