WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This thing is a beauty. I'm excited to watch it develop even if we miss out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You thinking 5" is possible for the McCowan and Steeles area? Yea, definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 FWIW LAM 2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 FWIW LAM 2.5 Wow nice! Thanks for sharing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 A close up of the 2.5km LAM (precip still falling at this point) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I don't think I'll feel the same way. Dec 2014 storm dropped a nice 20-25cm over us, no one else saw a flake. Feb 2013, 30-40cm for us, virtually no one else in this subforum saw anything more than a few inches. It happens. I'm glad we're getting sloppy seconds rather than nothing at all. Dec 2014 only a dusting here. Don't remember Feb 2013 but we had a local 40cm'er early 2013 IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Thinking 0z NAM holds serve. Maybe a slight decrease in juice. But noise level stuff. Would love to see another noticeable jump north, but we're pushing our luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Thinking 0z NAM holds serve. Maybe a slight decrease in juice. But noise level stuff. Would love to see another noticeable jump north, but we're pushing our luck. Its coming in amped compared to 18z at hour 14. Lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Thinking 0z NAM holds serve. Maybe a slight decrease in juice. But noise level stuff. Would love to see another noticeable jump north, but we're pushing our luck. I think most of the models are going to hold serve. Seems to be a pretty decent consensus on track. Deformation bands on the northern fringe are going to be key for us to score some surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Its coming in amped compared to 18z at hour 14. Lets see what happens. Slightly further N through 20 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yup, it's coming north again. Wow. More than noise level too. Fairly noticeable jump with the sfc low at 15 over MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yup, it's coming north again. Wow. Despite a more positively tilted vort max the anterior PVA tail is pushing further north due to stronger WAA. This adjustment happens a lot in the short range. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 LP right over Columbus at 26 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NAM doesn't look any further north to me... However, looks stronger and a bit larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NAM doesn't look any further north to me... However, looks stronger and a bit larger. I disagree from what I see at 15, but I won't quibble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Would be nice to get some more posters from Southern Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Could get close to a foot on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 What sites are you guys using? I like to use twisterdata.com to see the vorticity maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Could get close to a foot on this run? We could make a run at 1/2' of QPF on this run with a mean ratio AOA 15:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I disagree from what I see at 15, but I won't quibble. No, you're right. Noticeable jump at 15 hours. The site I like is slower with updating. I was only at hour 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 We could make a run at 1/2' of QPF on this run with a mean ratio AOA 15:1. I'm way behind you on NCEP...so basically despite the early excitement, no change from 18z as far as local impact is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Could get close to a foot on this run? I think we're looking more at 8-10" potential territory than 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 LP hugging southern tip of Lake Erie (american side) at 33 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm way behind you on NCEP...so basically despite the early excitement, no change from 18z as far as local impact is concerned. No QPF will definitely be higher this run. How much more is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 LP hugging southern tip of Lake Erie (american side) at 33 hours. Holy ****! That's not a nudge. That's a jump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wow! Looks amazing thru 36 hours. Edit: Expect a decent jump in qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This system is a monster on the NAM. The stronger this thing gets the easier it will penetrate that high to north. I don't see this low on the NAM tracking laterally as it has been. Path should tilt to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 33 hours is a sight to see. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Detroit gets demolished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Damn, the suspense is killing me. Looks like we should be heading into the 0.6-0.7" QPF range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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