blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z NAM has ~0.45" for all of the GTA south of the 407 with 0.5"+ for Mississauga/Lake shore. 0.8"+ for YHM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z NAM has ~0.45" for all of the GTA south of the 407 with 0.5"+ for Mississauga/Lake shore. 0.8"+ for YHM. Yup. Suspected it'd bump north based on 12z suite. I'll post that BUFKIT profile when it comes out in about 1/2 an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Starting to get excited about this storm potential. These "cold storms" are my favourite, both due to the high snow ratios and also because I love telling people "see, it can snow when it's cold". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 EC SWS: Total snowfall amounts of 10 to 15 cm are expected for regions from Sarnia to London and Brantford. From Goderich to Kitchener to Toronto snowfall amounts will be closer to 5 cm. lolololololol...they are so terrible. I mean I'm a pretty conservative guy but this is just abject idiocy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 btw...props to WestCoaster for sniffing out this threat fairly early. I admit, I didn't think the synoptic pattern would be conducive for a northward shift. But here we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yup. Suspected it'd bump north based on 12z suite. I'll post that BUFKIT profile when it comes out in about 1/2 an hour. Hey Mike. - mind doing one for YXU? I'm too much of a computer moron to get bufkit to work for myself. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hey Mike. - mind doing one for YXU? I'm too much of a computer moron to get bufkit to work for myself. Thanks Nope. No problem. I'll post YXU too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 EC SWS: Total snowfall amounts of 10 to 15 cm are expected for regions from Sarnia to London and Brantford. From Goderich to Kitchener to Toronto snowfall amounts will be closer to 5 cm. lolololololol...they are so terrible. I mean I'm a pretty conservative guy but this is just abject idiocy. When is that government funding going to get transferred to EC lol? Or has it already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 EC SWS: Total snowfall amounts of 10 to 15 cm are expected for regions from Sarnia to London and Brantford. From Goderich to Kitchener to Toronto snowfall amounts will be closer to 5 cm. lolololololol...they are so terrible. I mean I'm a pretty conservative guy but this is just abject idiocy. They're taking the GEM verbatim and then forgetting that SLR's can exceed 10:1. Yep... seems pretty classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is such a fragile situation. 1) Northern fringe of precipitation shield has a very sharp QPF gradient. A low slightly north of its modelled trajectory could have big ramifications for us. 2) If the low moves less laterally and more toward the NW; again, big changes. 3) Lake enhancement. Slight changes in the the low's position could result in some lake enhancement for the GTA with easterly winds. The opposite is also true. 1, 2 and 3 could all be slightly south or even more lateral, resulting in futility. I'm not so worried about the dry air eating away at the precip shield as we sometimes see with clippers: totally different moisture field. I haven't been paying attention to the strength of the winds at the surface. On my phone right now... what kind of wind/wind gusts are we expecting to see during the peak rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 When is that government funding going to get transferred to EC lol? Or has it already? Will pumping 150 million into EC really fix downsview's performance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 When is that government funding going to get transferred to EC lol? Or has it already? Not yet but it can't get there soon enough. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is such a fragile situation. 1) Northern fringe of precipitation shield has a very sharp QPF gradient. A low slightly north of its modelled trajectory could have big ramifications for us. 2) If the low moves less laterally and more toward the NW; again, big changes. 3) Lake enhancement. Slight changes in the the low's position could result in some lake enhancement for the GTA with easterly winds. The opposite is also true. 1, 2 and 3 could all be slightly south or even more lateral, resulting in futility. I'm not so worried about the dry air eating away at the precip shield as we sometimes see with clippers: totally different moisture field. I haven't been paying attention to the strength of the winds at the surface. On my phone right now... what kind of wind/wind gusts are we expecting to see during the peak rates? Per the 18z NAM, looks like 40-50 km/h sustained winds right along the lake Ontario shoreline. Lesser winds inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Will pumping 150 million into EC really fix downsview's performance? I hope so. They should upgrade the RGEM and GGEM. I'm not sure when the last time was when they got an update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 btw...props to WestCoaster for sniffing out this threat fairly early. I admit, I didn't think the synoptic pattern would be conducive for a northward shift. But here we are. Thanks! Although to be honest, it was simply a handful of GGEM runs between Jan 23-25 which were showing 30-40 cm dumps for the western GTA. Oddly enough, the GEM is the one model still holding back for our region now. If I've learned anything, it's that when a model shows something major far into the distance, keep an eye on it, even if it vanishes... I remember the Euro and Sandy really taught me that. Honestly though, if January were typical I probably wouldn't have given something so far out even a second look... but when you're snow-starved, anything even 240+ hours out becomes so important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Per the 18z NAM, looks like 40-50 km/h sustained winds right along the lake Ontario shoreline. Lesser winds inland. Wow, that could reach blizzard criteria for lake shores + Hamilton. Why Burlington-Oakville-south 'Sauga are under a SWS is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I hope so. They should upgrade the RGEM and GGEM. I'm not sure when the last time was when they got an update. Honestly the RGEM and GGEM aren't bad models. They had a big update early last year, no? The problem is that this even is so borderline that small shifts to the south make all the difference, but it's like EC is blind to any other model. I'm sure there is a standard practice requirement that forecasts be based off the in-house GEM, but if there is good reason (and they would surely have good reason in this case), they are likely able to alter the forecast to favour other model consensuses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I hope so. They should upgrade the RGEM and GGEM. I'm not sure when the last time was when they got an update. They went to 4DVR/0.24 degrees back in Feb 2013. I'm pretty sure another upgrade in in the works fairly soon but not sure exactly when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 YYZ model summary(all numbers are approximate): UKMET: 0.6" NAM: 0.45" GFS: 0.4" Euro: 0.3" Assuming we have a mean ratio of 14:1, thats 8.4", 6.3", 5.6" and 4.2" respectively from the big four. Mean=6.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z RGEM looking better than 12z through 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Honestly the RGEM and GGEM aren't bad models. They had a big update early last year, no? The problem is that this even is so borderline that small shifts to the south make all the difference, but it's like EC is blind to any other model. I'm sure there is a standard practice requirement that forecasts be based off the in-house GEM, but if there is good reason (and they would surely have good reason in this case), they are likely able to alter the forecast to favour other model consensuses. RGEM/GGEM are decent, but I was referring to EC which tends to have a bias using the GGEM over the other models. There are times when EC is too conservative or too optimistic. Hard to catch them in-between. They went to 4DVR/0.24 degrees back in Feb 2013. I'm pretty sure another upgrade in in the works fairly soon but not sure exactly when. Really ahey? It has improved its quality a bit. The GGEM was the first model to sniff this storm out. The other model suite followed afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z RGEM looking better than 12z through 36 hours. Yup. It's going to 2-2.5x its amounts it seems. Probably 10-15mm of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 RGEM 48 hours. Much further West than the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 YYZ model summary(all numbers are approximate): UKMET: 0.6" NAM: 0.45" GFS: 0.4" Euro: 0.3" Assuming we have a mean ratio of 14:1, thats 8.4", 6.3", 5.6" and 4.2" respectively from the big four. Mean=6.1" Tonights 0z runs are going to be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 RGEM/GGEM are decent, but I was referring to EC which tends to have a bias using the GGEM over the other models. There are times when EC is too conservative or too optimistic. Hard to catch them in-between. Really ahey? It has improved its quality a bit. The GGEM was the first model to sniff this storm out. The other model suite followed afterwards. That last sentence is such a polite way to say "They are hardly ever right" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I had no idea the UKMET had those kinds of amounts... it's actually a really good model too, lately. I never used to pay much attention to it but it nailed the East coast blizzard last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z NAM BUFKIT: YYZ: 0.47" QPF (6.0-8.0" of snow based on cobb techniques). YXU: 0.59" QPF (9.5-13.0" of snow based on cobb techniques), Ratios are better in London because of better omega intersecting with the snow growth region there. I'll post the soundings in a sec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z NAM BUFKIT: YYZ: 0.47" QPF (6.0-8.0" of snow based on cobb techniques). YXU: 0.59" QPF (9.5-13.0" of snow based on cobb techniques), Ratios are better in London because of better omega intersecting with the snow growth region there. I'll post the soundings in a sec. Wow amazing. 15-20cm would be a repeat of that Dec 11th storm which i wouldn't mind at all. What ratios are we looking at? 15:1 sounds reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wow amazing. 15-20cm would be a repeat of that Dec 11th storm which i wouldn't mind at all. What ratios are we looking at? 15:1 sounds reasonable. Yeah, it's about 15:1. Another tick to the north would help in getting those better dynamics near the sfc to help with dendrite production. Here's the sounding: Yellow line represents the DGZ, grey line is the uvvs (the more to the left the line goes, the better the lift). Not quite intersecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 In 2007-08 we saw two storms at or above 30cm. The Dec 15-17th one and the early February storm. I noticed SSC didn't include that in his list. The most recent one is the Feb, 2013 storm. The Feb 2014 storm was a close one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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