snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 btw...welcome to the board PAHTDC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think you can safely go higher than that. I'd be shocked if the 12z euro didn't bump north at least a little bit, if not a significant amount. Tempting but I think I'll stick. Technically I said 3" in the other thread which is a bit over 7cm so I'll go with that officially. Just really don't like the look of that sharp N-S gradient. Dry air may eat into totals on the north end as well, although not as much as typically due to the strong moisture transport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Just took an early look at the 12z euro... looks like QPF is going to double. EDIT: YYZ: ~0.3" YHM: ~0.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Rational thing to do this afternoon for EC: Upgrade the current SWS to a Watch (I'd include southern Halton as well).. Issue a SWS from Huron-Perth to Toronto to Prince Edward County. But of course, they won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Just took an early look at the 12z euro... looks like QPF is going to at least double. If the 18z NAM trends back north, I may bump my call by a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Bumping my call to 4-6" for YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 BUF expanded the winter storm watch to the shores of Lake Ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Bumping my call to 4-6" for YYZ. Sounds about right. Pending the 18z NAM, I may bump to 3-6". Going to be a prime nowcasting event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Sounds about right. Pending the 18z NAM, I may bump to 3-6". Going to be a prime nowcasting event. Nowcasting events with significant Southern branch moisture have worked in our favour over the last 12 months. I'm feeling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Except for one member, GEFs like the idea of bringing the 0.50" line north of Toronto. A couple have us toying with the 0.75" line. Seems a bit aggressive at this time but still must be considered. 10/12 members are at least 0.15" above the OP run. The other two are about the same. More north ticks to come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Just took an early look at the 12z euro... looks like QPF is going to double. EDIT: YYZ: ~0.3" YHM: ~0.6" Solid ECMWF run to say the least. Hopefully it ticks just 50 miles more north. Even now, were looking at ~10cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 10/12 members are at least 0.15" above the OP run. The other two are about the same. More north ticks to come? I'm going to be paying attention over the next 12-16 hours to where the sfc low ends up tracking through MO. If we can get to go even a little north of STL, that really bodes well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Solid ECMWF run to say the least. Hopefully it ticks just 50 miles more north. Even now, were looking at ~10cm. Just a gut feeling, but I'm thinking the 18z NAM comes back to the north a bit. Maybe not like the 6z run, but at least a little more lovin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Just a gut feeling, but I'm thinking the 18z NAM comes back to the north a bit. Maybe not like the 6z run, but at least a little more lovin'.Agreed. I think after 0z tonight we should watch the progression of the SFC low. Any deviation from what was modeled could mean a worlds difference here. If it digs a bit more it will certainly help as well. Edit: UKMET is a solid hit btw. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=ukmet&hi=000&hf=120&type=PR&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 TWN big bump in totals pic.twitter.com/IhGkZWz3VH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Only a marginal decrease in QPF on the 15z SREFs for YYZ (0.03"). I was expecting a more noticeable drop since the 12z NAM cutback amounts so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z Nam looking great through 33 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm going to be paying attention over the next 12-16 hours to where the sfc low ends up tracking through MO. If we can get to go even a little north of STL, that really bodes well for us. Interesting. Euro EPS mean at hour 30 cuts it close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 EC went with a warning along the north shore of Lk Erie and Hamilton (is it me, or do they hardly issue watches anymore?). I assume the SWS is going to be expanded north a row of counties, including Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z Nam looking amazing through 38 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 EC went with a warning along the north shore of Lk Erie and Hamilton (is it me, or do they hardly issue watches anymore?). I assume the SWS is going to be expanded north a row of counties, including Toronto. I was just about to mention the bolded. Seems like EC just doesn't do watches anymore. If I remember correctly 07-08 was loaded with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 EC went with a warning along the north shore of Lk Erie and Hamilton (is it me, or do they hardly issue watches anymore?). I assume the SWS is going to be expanded north a row of counties, including Toronto. They moved away from winter storm watches like 3 years ago. Also this is the perfect setup for their new advisory system with they almost refuse to use. Another famous special wx statement probably incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z Nam looking amazing through 38 hours. Looks like we could approach 1/2" of QPF this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Interesting. Euro EPS mean at hour 30 cuts it close. eps_slp_lows_east_6.png How's the track look thereafter? Something through CMH would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 They moved away from winter storm watches like 3 years ago. Also this is the perfect setup for their new advisory system with they almost refuse to use. Another famous special wx statement probably incoming! Is that an official move? Or is it just something you've noticed. In a way, I kind of see where they're coming from. A lot of people in the general public conflate a WS watch with a WS warning, so when a WS watch is dropped because conditions no longer appear favourable, John Q. Public cries "bust". And that's unfair. So I guess their asses are covered better this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Is that an official move? Or is it just something you've noticed. In a way, I kind of see where they're coming from. A lot of people in the general public conflate a WS watch with a WS warning, so when a WS watch is dropped because conditions no longer appear favourable, John Q. Public cries "bust". And that's unfair. So I guess their asses are covered better this way. There hasn't been a widespread winter storm watch in SW ONT or GTA since April 2013. There have been several in eastern Ontario since. To be fair tho there hasnot been many winter storms out this end. The ones we had went straight to warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 How's the track look thereafter? Something through CMH would be awesome. The mean is very close to CMH and spread is pretty broad considering the time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 SW Statement expanded north a tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The mean is very close to CMH and spread is pretty broad considering the time frame. eps_slp_lows_east_8.png Man, a few of those members with the low 75 miles south of CLE are mouthwatering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wow at the 18z Nam. Shows 15-20cm for the GTA. Has Western regions of the GTA in the 25cm range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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