on_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 TWN met Brian @BrianDillon80 4m4 minutes ago Major snowstorm coming to Southern Ontario, including Toronto, Windsor, London, Hamilton, Niagara, and Kitchener. General 5-10" possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 And just as all this hype is coming out, NAM backs off. I think I'm going to go with a prelim call slightly more moist than the EURO. Say 0.20-0.25" QPF, with SLRs in the 13-15:1 range. Good for 3-4" of wind driver powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 And just as all this hype is coming out, NAM backs off. I think I'm going to go with a prelim call slightly more moist than the EURO. Say 0.20-0.25" QPF, with SLRs in the 13-15:1 range. Good for 3-4" of wind driver powder. I wouldn't mind 8-12cm especially in this Winter, lol. But it kinda makes you quench with all those amounts expected south of us as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I wouldn't mind 8-12cm especially in this Winter, lol. But it kinda makes you quench with all those amounts expected south of us as usual. 3-4" is more like 7-10cm. And less for you. And "quench"? lol, Snowstorms. I love your angle. You're an awesome troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 And just as all this hype is coming out, NAM backs off. I think I'm going to go with a prelim call slightly more moist than the EURO. Say 0.20-0.25" QPF, with SLRs in the 13-15:1 range. Good for 3-4" of wind driver powder. Do you think the NAM backing off slightly form it's 6z run is just noise changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAHTDC Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Separate from all the talk of amounts, can someone summarise expected onset and wrap up of travel affecting snow for KW to YYZ? Particularly what are expected conditions Monday morning (last check of EC had 2cm Sunday afternoon and flurries for Monday) Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Separate from all the talk of amounts, can someone summarise expected onset and wrap up of travel affecting snow for KW to YYZ? Particularly what are expected conditions Monday morning (last check of EC had 2cm Sunday afternoon and flurries for Monday) Thanks Another Waterloo member hello! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 And just as all this hype is coming out, NAM backs off. I think I'm going to go with a prelim call slightly more moist than the EURO. Say 0.20-0.25" QPF, with SLRs in the 13-15:1 range. Good for 3-4" of wind driver powder. Agree with this call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAHTDC Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hello! (we are on NE side of Waterloo, near the Shell station on Bridge St). No measurements from me, besides using the Mark II eyeball but I like reading the play-by-play here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 3-4" is more like 7-10cm. And less for you. And "quench"? lol, Snowstorms. I love your angle. You're an awesome troll. Still some room for a shift N or S of the region. A 50 mile shift could mean the difference between an extra 2-5cm. And haha. I'm surprised your not some English scholar because you always notice these little moments I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hello! (we are on NE side of Waterloo, near the Shell station on Bridge St). No measurements from me, besides using the Mark II eyeball but I like reading the play-by-play here I'm near Bridge/Lexington as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAHTDC Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Small world Any thoughts on the timing and how long we will be in the accumulating snow part of the storm? 570(radio) now calling for 5-7 cm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm sure the 0Z runs will all have 10-11" for us followed by a virga special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Small world Any thoughts on the timing and how long we will be in the accumulating snow part of the storm? 570(radio) now calling for 5-7 cm Not the slightest clue. Only tabs I keep on winter wx is if it's going to snow and what everyone else is saying. Severe thunderstorms is my hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Judging by the maps, the 12z RGEM is about the same as the 12z Nam. Shows 5-10cm for Toronto. Closer to 5cm in Vaughan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z GFS has gone huge for Southern Ontario pic.twitter.com/uPWnU1tHup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 11ams are out from EC and hold flurries in Toronto, 2cm in KW, 5-10cm in SW Ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 11ams are out from EC and hold flurries in Toronto, 2cm in KW, 5-10cm in SW Ontario Atrocious. Poor Windsorites have no clue how bad it's going to be. There needs to be a watch out. They don't even need a foot of snow for this to be bad. Winds will be brutal down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Atrocious. Poor Windsorites have no clue how bad it's going to be. There needs to be a watch out. They don't even need a foot of snow for this to be bad. Winds will be brutal down there. You'll find a lot of people in SW Ontario turn to the Detroit channels for weather information. If you get any stations from there you'll notice they have warning maps etc that cover Ont and will talk in great detail about storms affecting the border regions and areas impacted on the Canadian side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You'll find a lot of people in SW Ontario turn to the Detroit channels for weather information. If you get any stations from there you'll notice they have warning maps etc that cover Ont and will talk in great detail about storms affecting the border regions and areas impacted on the Canadian side Thank God someone is going the job EC is supposed to be doing (but isn't). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Chief met at TWN Chris Scott @ChrisScottWx 13m13 minutes ago Don't think it's over-hype to say #onstorm could give near-blizzard conditions for #HamOnt region Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Comfortable in saying that this will be Toronto's 2nd biggest snowstorm of the winter, to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z UKIE continues to advertise 0.6"+ of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Do you think the NAM backing off slightly form it's 6z run is just noise changes? I thought about this. Maybe. Seems like it was on the right track, the RGEM and GFS moved towards it, and then it cowered away. I'd be shocked if the 18z run moved south again. I think we're into slight swaying mode right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I thought about this. Maybe. Seems like it was on the right track, the RGEM and GFS moved towards it, and then it cowered away. I'd be shocked if the 18z run moved south again. I think we're into slight swaying mode right now.We've seen these small shifts in track within 6 hours of the event, so its nothing new obviously.I'm going for 5-10cm atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 EC bumped special wx statement to 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Besides track, another big challenge here is the fact that the further north the LP area goes, the more that Omega is going to coincide with the DGZ. For example, the 12z GFS has 7.5" of snow on .37" of liquid (20:1 ratio) while the nam has 2.3" of snow on .21" of liquid (11:1 ratios). This factor will only heighten the snowfall gradient along the northern side of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Going with an optimistic final call of 7cm IMBY. Should be fun to watch the radar returns down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Going with an optimistic final call of 7cm IMBY. Should be fun to watch the radar returns down south. I think you can safely go higher than that. I'd be shocked if the 12z euro didn't bump north at least a little bit, if not a significant amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Except for one member, GEFs like the idea of bringing the 0.50" line north of Toronto. A couple have us toying with the 0.75" line. Seems a bit aggressive at this time but still must be considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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