Whitelakeroy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Also indicating good ratios because it generates almost 5" along the Toronto lakeshore with paltry QPF. Once we overcome the dry air those of us on the northern fringes should have decent ratios 15-20:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 21z SREF looks good for yyz I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 21z SREF looks good for yyz I think. They do. Another bump upwards with a mean of 9.4" at YYZ under 0.35" of QPF. Ratios obviously too high but the trend is clearly in our favour. Could foretell what the NAM does at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nam definitely shows the potential for some LES with this storm for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nam definitely shows the potential for some LES with this storm for the region. Which region? Hamilton? Yes then. And looks like we've maxed out on our gains. 0z NAM appears as though it'll have a down-tick in QPF, despite some positive signs initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Which region? Hamilton? Yes then. And looks like we've maxed out on our gains. 0z NAM appears as though it'll have a down-tick in QPF, despite some positive signs initially. Yeah Oakville/Hamilton mostly. Hamilton gets 25cm+, lol. Its a touch weaker with the precip shield. It isnt as extensive as the 18z but the track is virtually the same. It shows a solid 8-13cm without ratios which would equate to 15-20cm, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 When does the 4km Nam come out? I don't have the link for it, but it would be appreciated if someone were to post it when it comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeah Oakville/Hamilton mostly. Hamilton gets 25cm+, lol. Its a touch weaker with the precip shield. It isnt as extensive as the 18z but the track is virtually the same. It shows a solid 8-13cm without ratios which would equate to 15-20cm, no? No. Completely. And are you really banking on 20-25:1 ratios? And why are you even here? You already threw in the towel for the whole winter. Jesus Christ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 No. Completely. And are you really banking on 20-25:1 ratios? And why are you even here? You already threw in the towel for the whole winter. Jesus Christ. Maybe i was a bit arrogant when I made that call, especially when we still have 2 months of Winter left. On the contrary, I only come around on the board during Winter. Never really had a passion for severe wx, so I always end up crawling back in during Winter even when I rant my putrescent calls. No, i just looked at the snow map where I assumed its using 10:1 snow ratios and it showed 20-25cm for Hamilton. I'd bet on 15:1 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Maybe i was a bit arrogant when I made that call, especially when we still have 2 months of Winter left. On the contrary, I only come around on the board during Winter. Never really had a passion for severe wx, so I always end up crawling back in during Winter even when I rant my putrescent calls. No, i just looked at the snow map where I assumed its using 10:1 snow ratios and it showed 20-25cm for Hamilton. I'd bet on 15:1 right now. Yeah, 15:1 sounds reasonable. Bliz96 showed that sounding that seems favourable for decent snow growth. Don't want it to trend further south though or dry air may start eating into not only the QPF but also the ratios. Plus, even if amounts aren't prodigious, with temps in the - double digits and strong winds, we could have some semi-blizzard like conditions out there Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeah, 15:1 sounds reasonable. Bliz96 showed that sounding that seems favourable for decent snow growth. Don't want it to trend further south though or dry air may start eating into not only the QPF but also the ratios. Plus, even if amounts aren't prodigious, with temps in the - double digits and strong winds, we could have some semi-blizzard like conditions out there Sunday night. Yeah still 48 hours out from affecting us, so a subtle change of even 50 miles could mean the difference between 2-3". Temperatures should be around -11 to 13C during the heaviest rates. Atm, Hamilton is in the sweet spot thanks to the LES. Almost similar to the Feb 2007 storm. Edit: Can you run BUFKIT on the 0z Nam or nah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeah still 48 hours out from affecting us, so a subtle change of even 50 miles could mean the difference between 2-3". Temperatures should be around -11 to 13C during the heaviest rates. Atm, Hamilton is in the sweet spot thanks to the LES. Almost similar to the Feb 2007 storm. Edit: Can you run BUFKIT on the 0z Nam or nah? I don't have BUFKIT anymore. I got a new laptop and haven't gotten around to installing it. You can get it off the KBUF website. It's pretty straightforward to install and use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well, given I was initially expecting to get nothing from this, 2" would make me happy, especially if its accompanied with temperatures around -13c. Fluffy snow is a lot easier to shovel and accumulates more rapidly, as we all know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 A touch south of the area on the GFS. Around 2-3" in the GTA. Edit: SW Ont/SE Michigan have been the sweet spots in recent years. Really strange, but thats how it is i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Incredible N-S gradient for Lake Ontario. Hamilton gets 10-11" meanwhile Toronto is lucky to see 3". A shift north is the difference between nothing and everything. The arctic high in northern Ontario/western Quebec continues to weaken with each run. We'll see what happens as the system gets closer but we're already too close to the event to see big changes with so much model agreement for "not much" for Toronto already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Riding the line on the 0z GGEM. Shows 2-4" in the GTA. Besides the potential for maybe 5cm on Wednesday, it looks pretty dead after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Riding the line on the 0z GGEM. Shows 2-4" in the GTA. Besides the potential for maybe 5cm on Wednesday, it looks pretty dead after that. Another tick north on the GGEM. Surprised you haven't posted the ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Another tick north on the GGEM. Surprised you haven't posted the ukmet. I posted it in the main thread. UKIE holds its ground among all the other guidances thus far. 0z GGEM/0Z GFS both show 2-4" (5-10cm) for the GTA. The Nam shows a bit more (8-13cm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Current YYZ model summary: GFS: ~0.35"of QPF NAM: 0.4" Ukmet: 0.7" Euro:0.1" Let the madness continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Current YYZ model summary: GFS: ~0.35"of QPF NAM: 0.4" Ukmet: 0.7" Euro:0.1" Let the madness continue. EURO fudged up big time on the east coast recently. Hopefully it's abdication from the throne continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I cannot believe EC doesn't have a watch out along the 402/403 corridor south. And even their SWS doesn't properly emphasize the potential for significantly heavier amounts in that area. I guess it makes sense if they believe the stingier GEM/EURO and they also believe ratios are being well overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 EURO fudged up big time on the east coast recently. Hopefully it's abdication from the throne continues. Amen to that. It's ensembles do have a bit of a better look but even they can screw up a lot. The euro mean had 20" in NYC for last weeks system and we know how that worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Amen to that. It's ensembles do have a bit of a better look but even they can screw up a lot. The euro mean had 20" in NYC for last weeks system and we know how that worked out. image.jpg I do like that clustering north of the OR. Downloaded BUFKIT just for the ****s and giggles. Used a couple of different cobb techniques for ratios and they were much tamer than what the operational snowfall maps look like. NAM was generally AOB 6" depending on technique, GFS a bit less, in the 3-5" range. Snow growth region is decent on both models (300mb deep) but the best lift occurs above it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Current YYZ model summary: GFS: ~0.35"of QPF NAM: 0.4" Ukmet: 0.7" Euro:0.1" Let the madness continue. Looking at the raw output the ECMWF showed 0.15-0.20 qpf for the GTA depending where you were. I think for Hamilton it was 0.35-0.40 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I do like that clustering north of the OR. Downloaded BUFKIT just for the ****s and giggles. Used a couple of different cobb techniques for ratios and they were much tamer than what the operational snowfall maps look like. NAM was generally AOB 6" depending on technique, GFS a bit less, in the 3-5" range. Snow growth region is decent on both models (300mb deep) but the best lift occurs above it. Any chance you can post the BUFKIT soundings with omega included? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looking at the raw output the ECMWF showed 0.15-0.20 qpf for the GTA depending where you were. I think for Hamilton it was 0.35-0.40 qpf. YHM was 0.3", YYZ is 0.15" on the dot. Up your way its a little less than 0.1". IMO the euro is too far south as it has been slow to play catch up and its ENS members are clustered a bit north of the OP. If the 12z GFS/NAM can nudge north again, then this is especially valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 YHM was 0.3", YYZ is 0.15" on the dot. Up your way its a little less than 0.1". IMO the euro is too far south as it has been slow to play catch up and its ENS members are clustered a bit north of the OP. If the 12z GFS/NAM can nudge north again, then this is especially valid. Yeah its amazing how tight the snowfall gradient is. Anyone north of King city will likely see nothing more than a few flurries to maybe 1cm. Looking at the Water vapour images, you can see how strong the energy plume is with this storm as it draws in moisture from the Pacific and Atlantic. 12z NAM/GFS will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Bliz96, I'll post the graphic from BUFKIT after the 12z run comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 EC sticks to the GEM to a fault. It will be a very rare day when they dispute the GEM. I've seen events where the observations outside are not enough to deter their forecast from the GEM's model output. I too think the ratios are being a bit overdone with the models. It will be really cold but given the source moisture and... reality... ratios like that are just really, really hard to come by unless it's lake effect. The N-S gradient for the Lake Ontario region is amazing. The Arctic high is really putting a damper on things, but it's also responsible for the juicy amounts for pretty much everyone except us in this sub forum. If I've learned anything from models: -NAM is always juicier than reality -Euro is either spot on the whole time (was the case pre- summer 2013) or plays catchup horribly close to the event -Large increases in QPF very close to the event end up not happening -GFS has been a lot better this winter -RGEM is usually pretty accurate when it is consistent I think for our region, it's going to be nowcasting to see any small shifts in the low's track: will it be lateral or will it penetrate to the NW at all? Ratios will still be very decent for us compared to further south so any QPF we can salvage will make a big difference. I think right now... I'm thinking 4" for south GTA is doable. I would be more surprised to see 7"+ than I would be to see 1". I would love to be surprised, however. Although amounts seem to be in question, I'm wondering if the actual snow event will be exciting. Winds should be decent; and with dry snow on the ground right followed by even drier snow, we could have some interesting visibility issues if the storm does reach up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 EC met says the Canadian is too south/slow/weak Dave Sills @dave_sills 6m6 minutes ago @ChrisScottWx It looks like the CDN RDPS QPF is too south/slow/weak with this system as of 12Z. I'm following US SREF but known high bias... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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