Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yes, a really nice pivot point on the RUC. I don't like to put much stock in the RUC due to its lower res but this type of evolution is similar to the 4kNAM and the RDPS which is encouraging for at least a couple hours of SN to +SN. cref_t7sfc_f20.png The 18z RGEM showed some nice bursts of decent snowfall in the region so we'll see how that evolves through the day tomorrow. I personally prefer the HRRR, but the RUC isn't bad either when it comes to pinpointing the overall picture of the event in the short range. I'm going to stick with my 4-8cm call for now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 SREF mean for YYZ is 3.1". It's been running too high this winter for other events but it seems to gel with the RGEM and NAM. Not a huge fan of the slp passing over us or to our north though. I think 5-7cm range is a good call. Check out the t-snow tease on the 4kNAM. The initial squall line/burst of +SN could drop the majority of the snow tomorrow just after 18z. Decent dynamics for a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The 18z RGEM showed some nice bursts of decent snowfall in the region so we'll see how that evolves through the day tomorrow. I personally prefer the HRRR, but the RUC isn't bad either when it comes to pinpointing the overall picture of the event in the short range. I'm going to stick with my 4-8cm call for now! The HRRR is my favourite short range model by quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Check out the t-snow tease on the 4kNAM. The initial squall line/burst of +SN could drop the majority of the snow tomorrow just after 18z. Decent dynamics for a clipper. hires_ref_ne_19.png Wow! Looks pretty juicy. Love that mini eye trying to develop just north of DTW. We shouldn't have any problem with downsloping tomorrow. Sfc temperatures should be around -1.5 to -2.5C during the heaviest rates. Atleast it'll make it look more wintry outside, lol. But my commute back home tomorrow evening from Downtown to Vaughan gonna be a bummer, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Check out the t-snow tease on the 4kNAM. The initial squall line/burst of +SN could drop the majority of the snow tomorrow just after 18z. Decent dynamics for a clipper. hires_ref_ne_19.png Is it depicting liquid precip over us? Am I misreading that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Is it depicting liquid precip over us? Am I misreading that? Your correct but its just an issue with the sim radar algorithm which happens from time to time. Sfc-UL temps are solidly below freezing according to sounding data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Your correct but its just an issue with the sim radar algorithm which happens from time to time. Sfc-UL temps are solidly below freezing according to sounding data. Yeah, I assumed something was up with -RA reaching all the way up into west-central QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Your correct but its just an issue with the sim radar algorithm which happens from time to time. Sfc-UL temps are solidly below freezing according to sounding data. Yep Buf NWS isn't calling for rain here either. The initial airmass is very dry so radiational cooling will be taking place at the onset of precip. Those heavy rates will help that cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 NAM going 4-5"+ for the GTA but looks too beefed up. Still think 2-3" makes sense, especially looking at current radar. EDIT: Reason for the major difference between HRRR and NAM relates to strength of the dry slot which is usually underdone, especially when the LP centre is N of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 EC has downgraded amounts for Toronto from its previous call, lol. Radar wise, nothing speculator atm but hopefully that changes in the coming hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Exeter showing a band of 1cm/hr snow over kw but all I see is the odd flake drifting around out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 EC has downgraded amounts for Toronto from its previous call, lol. Radar wise, nothing speculator atm but hopefully that changes in the coming hours. EC has been just fine for this event. They changed their call from 7-9 to 4-8 cm. Not a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 EC has been just fine for this event. They changed their call from 7-9 to 4-8 cm. Not a big deal. judging from radar, I'm thinking this ends up at the lower end of that total. Im going with a 2-5cm general snowfall (in the GTA). Though I will be happy with anything to whiten the ground before some cold temperatures comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 http://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=wkr Looks like a donut hole. Should move into the GTA after 1230pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 EC has been just fine for this event. They changed their call from 7-9 to 4-8 cm. Not a big deal. I also don't hold much faith in the Canadian weather based agencies. NWS Buffalo is painting this as nothing more than a sloppy 1-2inches due to warm temperatures and judging from OBS around the area I think that might end up being true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Latest HRRR has 2-4" across the GTA, with the highest amounts from downtown and points eastward towards Scarborough, Ajax, Pickering, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Approaching a light dusting after 40 min under heavier returns. Very light snow temp -3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Really picking up out there suddenly -SN to SN. Must have been dry air issues at first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Should be interesting to see if this thing juices up this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Hmm decent returns here but poor dendrite growth. Steady SN and visibility is actually reduced quite a bit but flakes were almost graupel-like for a while. Puffing up a little bit more now likely due to some atmospheric cooling with the heavier rates. Unfortunately looks like the dry slot is about to move in. Best accums will be well to the north. As blizz96 mentioned, strength of the dry slotting was underdone on the NAM. Still thinking my 2.5" call may work out although may fall just shy of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Have a dusting and the slot's about to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 ah well, everything has turned white. Pretty heavy snow currently but looks like the back end is fast approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 +SN here in North York. Everything went from bare to covered in just thirty minutes. Impressive rates. Wasn't expecting this type of intensity. Reminds me of that big February storm in 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Seen this discussed in other threads but what is your guys preference. Snow on the ground or heavy snowstorms and then you don't care much? Ill be happy with 1-2 inches and a deep freeze. What Im not a fan of is a deep freeze with bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I don't care about snow cover after the first day. I like it fresh. Snowstorms all the way. I don't like the cold at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Almost white out conditions here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 1 cm down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 None of the models had all these dry spot issues. Should probably result in lower amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Tapered off entirely now. 1.5 cm of plaster. I love this kind of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 By the looks of it, our chances with the Feb 1-2nd storm are dwindling with each run. Turd winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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