blizzardof96 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Last I checked the Kuchera map was calling for a 14:1 ratio off the NAM. Your range looks ok even with 0.30" QPF if those ratios verify. I'm really liking an aggressive slot with this thing so that's why I'm going conservative. That could be the kicker IMO. If we end up with 0.35-0.4" of QPF like the euro is showing thats ~5 of snow. Based on the NAM sounding during the height of the CCB, thermals are close to the -10c range which argues for 12-13: ratios in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I'm with you on that call, with 5" for Snowstorms and blizzardof96 Initially, I was thinking east of the city would be the sweet spot. Now though I think some of the higher amounts (aside from the Snowstorms slant-stick sweetspot ) might end up being over the high ground NW of the city, where the deformation zone pivot point is likely to set up. Guelph, Caledon, etc. I'll go with a final call of 2-4" for my area of the city (approximately McCowan and Steeles). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 BARELY visible on radar but light flakes have been falling for about half an hour here. Nice to see some upward trends for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Wow, the 0z GFS really upped the QPF for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Latest 0z models, (RGEM, NAM and GFS), all spiting out 10-15cm for the GTA by Thursday afternoon. If indeed it materializes as depicted by models, the morning commute on Thursday could be treacherous. The key thing to watch with this storm is deformation bands. If any do set-up we could see locally higher amounts of up to 18cm in some areas. At this point in time, I'm leaning towards a widespread 7-12cm in the GTA and the same goes with Hamilton. This storm pounds Ottawa and Montreal, however. Some areas could get 25-35cm when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Latest 0z models, (RGEM, NAM and GFS), all spiting out 10-15cm for the GTA by Thursday afternoon. If indeed it materializes as depicted by models, the morning commute on Thursday could be treacherous. SN_000-048_0000.gif The key thing to watch with this storm is deformation bands. If any do set-up we could see locally higher amounts of up to 18cm in some areas. At this point in time, I'm leaning towards a widespread 7-12cm in the GTA and the same goes with Hamilton. This storm pounds Ottawa and Montreal, however. Some areas could get 25-35cm when all is said and done. And, yet, still no special weather statement for Toronto, nor a snowfall warning for Ottawa from EC!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 And, yet, still no special weather statement for Toronto, nor a snowfall warning for Ottawa from EC!? 00Z models are just coming out. Relax. There is a statement out in Ottawa and they will likely update that alert as it draws closer. Models have changed to snowier solutions rather rapidly. I can't blame EC for being cautious today. But tomorrow there should be some warnings issued for eastern Ontario and a SWS for the GTA. Based on timing of the storm Thursday morning's commute should be fine. Brunt of the storm is before 6am. Major roads will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 And, yet, still no special weather statement for Toronto, nor a snowfall warning for Ottawa from EC!? Montreal has a snowfall warning but I'm surprised Ottawa doesn't. Then again EC is sometimes too conservative or to optimistic. But i suspect warnings and special weather statements will be expanded come tomorrow into Ottawa and the GTA. That 5cm 2 weeks ago caused traffic mayhem in the city. And its alarming too considering it snows every year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Latest 0z models, (RGEM, NAM and GFS), all spiting out 10-15cm for the GTA by Thursday afternoon. If indeed it materializes as depicted by models, the morning commute on Thursday could be treacherous. SN_000-048_0000.gif The key thing to watch with this storm is deformation bands. If any do set-up we could see locally higher amounts of up to 18cm in some areas. At this point in time, I'm leaning towards a widespread 7-12cm in the GTA and the same goes with Hamilton. This storm pounds Ottawa and Montreal, however. Some areas could get 25-35cm when all is said and done. Very unlikely (almost impossible) in the GTA. I see nothing in the 0z/6z suite that'll cause me to waiver on my 3-8cm call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 00Z models are just coming out. Relax. There is a statement out in Ottawa and they will likely update that alert as it draws closer. Models have changed to snowier solutions rather rapidly. I can't blame EC for being cautious today. But tomorrow there should be some warnings issued for eastern Ontario and a SWS for the GTA. Based on timing of the storm Thursday morning's commute should be fine. Brunt of the storm is before 6am. Major roads will be fine. It'll be close for the west end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Montreal has a snowfall warning but I'm surprised Ottawa doesn't. Then again EC is sometimes too conservative or to optimistic. But i suspect warnings and special weather statements will be expanded come tomorrow into Ottawa and the GTA. That 5cm 2 weeks ago caused traffic mayhem in the city. And its alarming too considering it snows every year Toronto leases snowplows from private contractors. Lease kicks in on December 1 each year. That'll be the big the difference this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Driving to St. Catherines this afternoon for my daughter's graduation from Brock. Not looking forward to the drive on the QEW with snow in the air. Any ideas about amts? NWS says up to 6 inches in Niagara Falls which is about 10 miles east. EC says maybe 5 cm starting later this afternoon but the radar is already showing snow......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Very unlikely (almost impossible) in the GTA. I see nothing in the 0z/6z suite that'll cause me to waiver on my 3-8cm call. Toronto leases snowplows from private contractors. Lease kicks in on December 1 each year. That'll be the big the difference this time. Yeah, my bad for that. 18cm is a bit of an over exaggeration. I would go for a widespread 6-12cm though. Most models are within this range for the GTA. And are they really? Damn, never knew that. That still doesn't help the crazy drivers in Toronto. Through the first 10 days of December, YYZ has only recorded 2.0mm of precipitation. Its been a really dry month so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 2-4" looks golden for most of the city IMO. Up to 13-14cm once you get east of the city proper looks possible as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Driving to St. Catherines this afternoon for my daughter's graduation from Brock. Not looking forward to the drive on the QEW with snow in the air. Any ideas about amts? NWS says up to 6 inches in Niagara Falls which is about 10 miles east. EC says maybe 5 cm starting later this afternoon but the radar is already showing snow......... Snowfall should move in later this evening across most of the GTA/Niagara region. I suspect there will be some lake enhancement for parts of the Niagara region, but in general I expect amounts to be around 8-13cm. Drive safe! It took me 3.5 hours 2-3 weeks ago to get home from Ryerson to Vaughan because of all the crazy drivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 2-4" looks golden for most of the city IMO. Up to 13-14cm once you get east of the city proper looks possible as well. A challenge you to a forecast off! I'm going with the highest amounts (west of Eastern Ontario) from Barrie down to Guelph. Possibly 10+cm there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I'm not seeing really any model runs right now with 4"+ for the GTA. I still think 3" is a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 00Z models are just coming out. Relax. There is a statement out in Ottawa and they will likely update that alert as it draws closer. Models have changed to snowier solutions rather rapidly. I can't blame EC for being cautious today. But tomorrow there should be some warnings issued for eastern Ontario and a SWS for the GTA. Based on timing of the storm Thursday morning's commute should be fine. Brunt of the storm is before 6am. Major roads will be fine. The 6z GFS shows snow continuing to fall in the GTA throughout the morning rush hour and perhaps even into the early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 The 6z GFS shows snow continuing to fall in the GTA throughout the morning rush hour and perhaps even into the early afternoon. 12z NAM has really slowed down the snow's development. Looks like things wouldn't really get started until towards dawn. It is notoriously too slow to star precip sometimes, but I'm not certain the morning commute is going to be clear sailing, especially from the city and to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Snow already falling along a Belleville-Rochester axis and it's going to take another 15-18 hours to get in here. Frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 12z NAM has really slowed down the snow's development. Looks like things wouldn't really get started until towards dawn. It is notoriously too slow to star precip sometimes, but I'm not certain the morning commute is going to be clear sailing, especially from the city and to the west. The latest run of the Canadian shows moderate snow falling across the GTA around 8am tomorrow. If this verifies, it could be a nightmarish commute. The Canadian also shows the snow not starting in the GTA until around midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Interestingly, it's both the 22nd and 70th anniversaries of two of Toronto's biggest ever snowstorms. The December 10-11, 1992 storm dropped 40 cm on Markham ( I was in Grade 7 and remember they were originally forecasting only 15cm/6"!), while the December 1944 storm dropped 53 cm downtown. Also, on December 11-12, 2000, Toronto received 25cm of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Definite bump in amounts today. GEM and NAM calling for 5-6" GFS lower with 3"; RAP seems to be on-track with the GFS EC calling for 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Definite bump in amounts today. GEM and NAM calling for 5-6" GFS lower with 3"; RAP seems to be on-track with the GFS EC calling for 3-4" GFS actually shows 4" for the GTA. In summary, all models agree the GTA will see somewhere between 3-5"(7-13cm) by tomorrow afternoon. The morning commute is going to be slow as hell. However, now that were within 12 hours of the storm impacting us, I would stick to using short-range models such as RAP, RUC, HRRR and NAM. They offer more precise results in short-range dynamics and insights on precipitation strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Current model summary still has some spread. Nam supportive of a major E-W gradient with 6-8" near Oshawa and 0-1" at YHM. RGEM is more spread the wealth as it is insistent on a return east of the band after it reaches its western extent. In TO proper: RGEM: 5-7" NAM: 4-7" Euro: 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Current model summary still has some spread. Nam supportive of a major E-W gradient with 6-8" near Oshawa and 0-1" at YHM. RGEM is more spread the wealth as it is insistent on a return east of the band after it reaches its western extent. In TO proper: RGEM: 5-7" NAM: 4-7" Euro: 3-4" I think 4" is a good call for the GTA. If you average those numbers out, 4" is what most models are agreeing upon. It'll be interesting to see if we can get any decent deformation bands tomorrow and Lake enhancement off GBay. Temperatures are cold enough for some solid ratios (10:1 to 12:1). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I'll bump the lower end of my initial call and go with a final call of 5-8cm/2-3" for Toronto proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I think 4" is a good call for the GTA. If you average those numbers out, 4" is what most models are agreeing upon. It'll be interesting to see if we can get any decent deformation bands tomorrow and Lake enhancement off GBay. Temperatures are cold enough for some solid ratios (10:1 to 12:1). I think we are in a good position when compared to SSC or others in the west end/downtown areas. Its a tough forecast but will probably end up in the 7-15cm range where we are and then more like 5-10cm downtown IMO. In terms of the GB Lehs, its def there as winds are in a nice direction(~340-350). Would be nice if winds backed just a little bit more although you can see that either way the bay is helping ramp up QPF into the N GTA on the high res models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I think we are in a good position when compared to SSC or others in the west end/downtown areas. Its a tough forecast but will probably end up in the 7-15cm range where we are and then more like 5-10cm downtown IMO. In terms of the GB Lehs, its def there as winds are in a nice direction(~340-350) but would be nice if winds backed a little bit more although you can see that it is helping ramp up QPF on the high res models. We'll see about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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