blizzardof96 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Looks interesting, yes, but I wouldn't jump on the storm wagon yet. We've seen plenty of fantasy storms that turned out to be nothing once we got closer. One example is the Jan 22-24th storm potential. Would be nice to get some help from the Atlantic. With a persistent -EPO, we may have the cold air, but it can be hard to get a true phased storm without blocking in the Arctic (-AO/NAO). Lets see! I used to be an avid weather hobbyist in the Winter back then, but 2011-12 ended up killing my desire quite a bit. Verbatim its 10-12" of high ratio snow on the 12z euro but of course its worth very little at this range. If the model still has the system in some capacity around D5-6 then I'm getting very interesting. The bolded is a bit of a head scratcher... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Euro ENS support much lower QPF amounts as the low track is further SE. Proceed with caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Clipper to the south, clipper to the south, clipper to the north, clipper to the south. Sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Clipper to the south, clipper to the south, clipper to the north, clipper to the south. Sounds about right.You know when a winter sucks when you can't even get a decent clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 You know when a winter sucks when you can't even get a decent clipper. We haven't had a decent clipper in years. I'm thinking not since the late 00s. I remember some correlation between the PDO state and clipper tracks mentioned, and how the current long-term PDO state is unfavourable for us. Don't remember the details though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 We haven't had a decent clipper in years. I'm thinking not since the late 00s. I remember some correlation between the PDO state and clipper tracks mentioned, and how the current long-term PDO state is unfavourable for us. Don't remember the details though.The jan 05 clipper was pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 We haven't had a decent clipper in years. I'm thinking not since the late 00s. I remember some correlation between the PDO state and clipper tracks mentioned, and how the current long-term PDO state is unfavourable for us. Don't remember the details though. Statistically speaking, a -PDO is better for our region than a +PDO. The link between ENSO and PDO still remains a mystery, but during a -PDO we often seen an increased number of La Nina's. The state of the QBO is crucial in La Nina's because it can affect the extent of the Aleutian Ridge and positioning (EPO). Negative EPO https://kcstormfront.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/epo3.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 We haven't had a decent clipper in years. I'm thinking not since the late 00s. I remember some correlation between the PDO state and clipper tracks mentioned, and how the current long-term PDO state is unfavourable for us. Don't remember the details though. Most recent clipper that was significant around here was 3/1/14. Dumped ~3" on the city. Our climo doesn't really favour >3-4" amounts with clippers as the stronger ones that dump out of the plains tend to weaken E of Lk Mi/Huron and usually track S of us. When we get a more favourable track they tend to come out of NW On where QPF is rather sparse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Most recent clipper that was significant around here was 3/1/14. Dumped ~3" on the city. Our climo doesn't really favour >3-4" amounts with clippers as the stronger ones that dump out of the plains tend to weaken E of Lk Mi/Huron and usually track S of us. When we get a more favourable track they tend to come out of NW On where QPF is rather sparse. Funny you say that. I'm sure it's a valid theory but the old mantra (especially on TWN) was that clippers are strengthened when they cross over the warmer waters of the Great Lakes. 18z GFS is like a joke. Seriously, this winter has a sort of 2009-10 feeling to it, although I'm sure the AO and NAO indicies would say differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Not a single threat on the 12z GFS for the GTA. Winter fail. I'm throwing the towel for this Winter. I may get criticized for that statement, but at the rate were going right now, this Winter has good chance at being the driest on record in terms of precipitation and maybe a top 5 or top 10 least snowiest. To further reiterate what i wrote above, only 12.4cm has been recorded at YYZ since Dec 11th. Thats bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Not a single threat on the 12z GFS for the GTA. Winter fail. I'm throwing the towel for this Winter. I may get criticized for that statement, but at the rate were going right now, this Winter has good chance at being the driest on record in terms of precipitation and maybe a top 5 or top 10 least snowiest. To further reiterate what i wrote above, only 12.4cm has been recorded at YYZ since Dec 11th. Thats bad! Are you really that surprised! I mean where in an El Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Are you really that surprised! I mean where in an El Niño. This. With a few notable exceptions, El Nino years are not snowy ones for the GTA. In fact, if memory serves me right, the biggest snow event of the 2009-10 El Nino in Toronto was in mid December...just like this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 This. With a few notable exceptions, El Nino years are not snowy ones for the GTA. In fact, if memory serves me right, the biggest snow event of the 2009-10 El Nino in Toronto was in mid December...just like this year. Late February 2010 retrograde storm dropped about the same amount as the December storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Are you really that surprised! I mean where in an El Niño. This. With a few notable exceptions, El Nino years are not snowy ones for the GTA. In fact, if memory serves me right, the biggest snow event of the 2009-10 El Nino in Toronto was in mid December...just like this year. All the El Nino's since 1950 and the snowfall outcome at YYZ. 1951-52: 184.3cm 1953-54: 124.5cm (almost a carbon copy of this Winter so far) 1957-58: 95.5cm (decent) 1958-59: 145.9cm 1963-64: 158cm 1965-66: 131.5cm 1968-69: 83.1cm 1969-70: 153.7cm 1972-73: 109.3cm 1976-77: 122.2cm 1977-78: 143.1cm 1982-83: 71.5cm 1986-87: 115.2cm 1987-88: 78.4cm 1991-92: 96cm (decent) 1994-95: 88.8cm 1997-98: 87.6cm 2002-03: 150.7cm 2004-05: 148.1cm 2006-07: 60.3cm 2009-10: 52.4cm Average: 114.3cm (seasonal avg at yyz is 115cm). Some really bad Winters in there, but most of them occurred in the late 80s and 90s as you can see above. If you subtract 2006-07 and 2009-10 from that list you get 120.5cm, which is slightly above the average. El Nino's generally speaking aren't bad for our region. The last good one was 2002-03. El Nino's unlike La nina's influence the Pacific jet and this allows more storms to form across the south and if the set-up is ideal, we can get fully phased storms to cut through the region. La Nina's coming off an El Nino can do wonders in the right environment. Some examples include 2007-08, 1998-99 (Jan/Mar 99) and 1995-96 in recent years. So take your pick. I don't know what the answer is, but these last three El Nino's have been sh!t for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The clipper later this week looks intriguing to say the least. GFS/GGEM have a decent hit for the GTA (~5cm) with heavier amounts towards London/Windsor. Still 70+ hours out so it could still change track .No definite solution just yet. Hoping for the best. Haven't analyzed the upper atmosphere charts yet. And after that more Zzzz!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The clipper later this week looks intriguing to say the least. GFS/GGEM have a decent hit for the GTA (~5cm) with heavier amounts towards London/Windsor. Still 70+ hours out so it could still change track .No definite solution just yet. Hoping for the best. Haven't analyzed the upper atmosphere charts yet. And after that more Zzzz!! If this clipper misses us, I'm done with this winter. Done!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 If this clipper misses us, I'm done with this winter. Done!. I can almost guarantee you that it will. I'll put 5 bucks on it. Nothing measurable at YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I can almost guarantee you that it will. I'll put 5 bucks on it. Nothing measurable at YYZ. Looks like a Detroit-Cleveland special, going to split the uprights for us. Toronto too far north and Fort Wayne-Columbus a rain/snow mix, although CMH might see a little love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I can almost guarantee you that it will. I'll put 5 bucks on it. Nothing measurable at YYZ. is your sig updated for YYZ snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 is your sig updated for YYZ snow? Yup. You'll pass us by this time next week. I'd say living in the lake belt has made this winter more bearable, but honestly, it hasn't been much better here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yup. You'll pass us by this time next week. I'd say living in the lake belt has made this winter more bearable, but honestly, it hasn't been much better here. Punt this Winter, it sucks!! I've already thrown my towel. At best we'll finish the season with maybe 70cm? I can't believe were seeing yet another futile Winter in a span of just 5 years!! -15C the other day and no snow on the ground, painful! Edit: Can't bet on clippers anymore. Since 08-09, they haven't been good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Punt this Winter, it sucks!! I've already thrown my towel. At best we'll finish the season with maybe 70cm? I can't believe were seeing yet another futile Winter in a span of just 5 years!! -15C the other day and no snow on the ground, painful! Edit: Can't bet on clippers anymore. Since 08-09, they haven't been good for us. 1. You've thrown in the towel. Duly noted. So I assume if we do get a snowy period or snowstorm you won't be posting? 2. At best we'll end up with 70cm? So at best we'll only see another ~25cm the rest of the winter? Do you even know what the phrase "at best" means? That scenario is the worst of the worst. The exact opposite of "at best". It's ok to be frustrated. It's been a rough stretch that doesn't look like it'll be ending soon. But still, think before you post nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 09/10 wasn't until Feb 22 2010 that we [kw] had our first 10cm+ snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Well, the clippers are duds, but one thing Toronto-Hamilton corridor is going to have to look out for is the long-fused E flow the NAM is spitting out beginning around 66 hours once the clipper slp moves to our south. Delta t's look really good (probably in the 14-17c range). Question is going to be moisture/inversion heights (shear is definitely going to be a problem, but it shouldn't be prohibitive). Too early to get bogged down in these details, but something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 A little over 1cm here by the looks of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Well, the clippers are duds, but one thing Toronto-Hamilton corridor is going to have to look out for is the long-fused E flow the NAM is spitting out beginning around 66 hours once the clipper slp moves to our south. Delta t's look really good (probably in the 14-17c range). Question is going to be moisture/inversion heights (shear is definitely going to be a problem, but it shouldn't be prohibitive). Too early to get bogged down in these details, but something to keep an eye on. Flow looking to have too much of a northerly component for Toronto now, although it's close. Still should keep an eye on it, especially if that secondary clipper that rides the coattails of main clipper ends up a touch stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The GFS shows 8-13cm in the GTA for the Thursday-Friday clipper. Still 5 days out but definitely worth watching, lol . There hasn't been much of that for this Winter, haha. The -EPO is fuelling the polar jet-stream and this is creating alot of clipper potentials for the region. Unfortunately, we haven't gotten a noteworthy clipper yet because they've either been south of us or north of us with nothing in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Flow looking to have too much of a northerly component for Toronto now, although it's close. Still should keep an eye on it, especially if that secondary clipper that rides the coattails of main clipper ends up a touch stronger. nam hires is showing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 nam hires is showing something. Yeah, just saw it. But Mississauga south. Looks like you're in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Here is the 12z Euro text output for the late week clipper. yyz btw. ECMWF FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 12Z JAN25 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK THU 18Z 29-JAN -4.1 -7.7 1016 73 100 0.08 546 533 FRI 00Z 30-JAN -2.9 -8.2 1011 89 99 0.19 542 534 FRI 06Z 30-JAN -3.2 -8.5 1010 93 99 0.12 538 531 FRI 12Z 30-JAN -5.1 -9.4 1014 85 91 0.03 534 523 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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