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Southern Ontario Winter '14-'15 Discussion


harrisale

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An intense L. Huron band has set up just west of London that is affecting E. Lambton and W. Middlesex counties.  It's coming right down the length of the eastern part of the lake and hammering those in the areas above.   More than likely dangerous conditions on Hwy 402 with really poor visibility and drifting.  A sketchy road to be caught in when conditions are like this.

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So 6 hours of sub -30 WCs at YYZ and still no Extreme Cold Warning? Meanwhile, YXU, which has been under the warning from the get go, has yet to get colder than -28. EC is terrible.

I don't get it either. All the respectable high res models were showing extreme cold warning criteria temps last evening. EC loves to beat around the GTA when it comes to watches//warnings. Why? No good reason.

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So 6 hours of sub -30 WCs at YYZ and still no Extreme Cold Warning? Meanwhile, YXU, which has been under the warning from the get go, has yet to get colder than -28. EC is terrible.

Probably because EC looked at the 850mb temps and it doesnt meet the criteria needed for extreme cold warnings to be issued lol.
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Agree with the sentiment here of EC not issuing an extreme cold warning for Toronto.

The source region for this morning's cold was from the north/northeast, perfect for getting the lowest possible temperature reading without being modified by the lakes.

And finally the snowfall data at the downtown station was updated to Jan 10th. Not including yesterday's snowfall, 42.9 cm has fallen so far this winter downtown. 5.4 cm fell on Jan 3rd in that two hour blitz from 1-3 pm.

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Agree with the sentiment here of EC not issuing an extreme cold warning for Toronto.

The source region for this morning's cold was from the north/northeast, perfect for getting the lowest possible temperature reading without being modified by the lakes.

And finally the snowfall data at the downtown station was updated to Jan 10th. Not including yesterday's snowfall, 42.9 cm has fallen so far this winter downtown. 5.4 cm fell on Jan 3rd in that two hour blitz from 1-3 pm.

 

Mid-January and the nipher is still in the lead though.

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Keeping an eye on those multi-bands currently impacting Stoney Creek. Both the NAM and the HRRR shift the winds this evening to basically 090, which could put them in play in Toronto and Mississauga. Very shallow inversion heights though (haven't seen a sounding but we're probably talking bellow 925mb). Any lowering and they'll evaporate, despite the favourable flow.

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Keeping an eye on those multi-bands currently impacting Stoney Creek. Both the NAM and the HRRR shift the winds this evening to basically 090, which could put them in play in Toronto and Mississauga. Very shallow inversion heights though (haven't seen a sounding but we're probably talking bellow 925mb). Any lowering and they'll evaporate, despite the favourable flow.

Interesting setup. Inversion heights stay consistent near 950mb until ~4-6z. This supports at least some multi band action until that time in the GTA. These streamers should slowly shift north until the veering winds cut off the LL saturation and bands begin to die by midnight.

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Interesting setup. Inversion heights stay consistent near 950mb until ~4-6z. This supports at least some multi band action until that time in the GTA. These streamers should slowly shift north until the veering winds cut off the LL saturation and bands begin to die by midnight.

 

For such shallow convection it's surprising how semi-decent radar returns are not yielding much ground-truth. Usually in these setups only 15-20 dbz returns should equate to nearly moderate snow.

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0z euro has 1ft+ with the D9 storm in and around the GTA.The euro ensembles are beginning to pick up on it with most members showing an apps runner/interior NE track. The overall H5 pattern looks nice but could easily favour more of a coastal track if the trough takes longer to go negative or the pac jet extends a bit more.

Something to watch before the pattern begins to favour more N branch action.

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Hearing news that the Harper gov is investing 134 million to help improve weather forecasts in canada. Great news for EC and the GEM/RGEM.

Saw on twitter that 26 million going to revamp and improve the weather warning system. Wonder if this has anything to do with the CRTC mandated emergency alert system launching this spring

Maybe this could be the end of warning and sub warning regions too... but haven't seen anything to indicate such

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Saw on twitter that 26 million going to revamp and improve the weather warning system. Wonder if this has anything to do with the CRTC mandated emergency alert system launching this spring

Maybe this could be the end of warning and sub warning regions too... but haven't seen anything to indicate such

 

I got my head up my ass...what's the alternative?

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Saw on twitter that 26 million going to revamp and improve the weather warning system. Wonder if this has anything to do with the CRTC mandated emergency alert system launching this spring

Maybe this could be the end of warning and sub warning regions too... but haven't seen anything to indicate such

All the main radar sites are going dual-pol as well. They are also extending/improving the sfc/roab obs network. Interesting developments.

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At this rate, were on pace to having a Winter like 1936-37 minus the cold temperatures. In the first half, Oct-Dec, Toronto recorded 32.6cm in 1936. This year from Oct-Dec, YYZ recorded 36.9cm. 

 

In the second half of that Winter (1936-37), Toronto recorded 6.4cm in January, 7.9cm in February, 23.1cm in March and 0.3cm in April, totalling 37.7cm and 70.3cm overall. However, every month expect March was above normal that Winter in terms of temperatures.

 

Unless we get some decent action, which seems hard to come by, this Winter is almost in a deadlock with 1936-37. But I've got some decent hopes for late January-February as the STJ finally gets active and we see a more pronounced cross Polar flow (-AO/-EPO/+PNA).

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This winter has been pretty normal as far as I'm concerned. Slightly colder than normal temperatures overall (November and January have featured impressive cold) and slightly below normal snowfall with an 8" storm thrown in there. As of mid January, nothing to be too sad or too happy about. We've also had loads of dustings this month which has kept us from having to look at the dreadful eyesore of brown muck that used to be fields of grass.

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I was actually looking at the LE parameters last night and thought things looked decent but sort of shook it off as the models didn't have anything last night.

 

-SN right now with about an inch of fluff down. Too bad the band moved out so quickly.

 

attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2015-01-17 at 8.20.07 AM.png

 

In Etobicoke for the weekend. Yeah, I'd say maybe a touch less than 1" here. Nice band but it motored through in a hurry like you say.

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Temperature up to 3.2C ( 37.8F) as of 11pm and climbing at YYZ. That little snow we have on the ground will likely be gone by tomorrow. Just another slow paced Winter. This has been a recurring theme since 05-06, excluding 07-08, 08-09, 10-11 (mostly small events), February 2013 and 13-14. 

 

Nothing to talk about from now till January 22-23...

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Atmospheric?

 

at·mos·pher·ic

ˌatməsˈfirik,ˌatməsˈferik/
adjective
adjective: atmospheric
  1. 1.
    of or relating to the atmosphere of the earth or (occasionally) another planet.
    "atmospheric conditions such as fog, snow, rain"
  2. 2.
    creating a distinctive mood, typically of romance, mystery, or nostalgia.
    "atmospheric lighting"
Yeah, news to me too.
 
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12z euro continues to advertise a big snowstorm hit in and around YYZ by D8-D9. Still early and it appears to be a very complex setup with many moving pieces/streams. 3 vorts actually on the table.

 

Looks interesting, yes, but I wouldn't jump on the storm wagon yet. We've seen plenty of fantasy storms that turned out to be nothing once we got closer. One example is the Jan 22-24th storm potential.

 

Would be nice to get some help from the Atlantic. With a persistent -EPO, we may have the cold air, but it can be hard to get a true phased storm without blocking in the Arctic (-AO/NAO).

 

Lets see! I used to be an avid weather hobbyist in the Winter back then, but 2011-12 ended up killing my desire quite a bit. 

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