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Southern Ontario Winter '14-'15 Discussion


harrisale

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I feel like this winter has been very "normal" with oscillations between deep freeze and above normal which I quite like given last winter was unbearably restless in the consistent cold department.

We already had a big dump of snow and have had numerous dustings since the start of November. November was quite cold and December was relatively warm. January has been pretty frigid.

Considering I moved to Toronto in April 2011 from Seattle of all places, this has been a good winter I'd say. My first winter here (2011-2012) was a non winter and 2012-2013 was awful until mid January and went on too long, so I'd say this winter already trumps my first two nov/dec/Jan periods.

It's as if folks around here think weekly footer snowstorms are to be expected otherwise they call futility. As far as I'm concerned, if that's the case, move somewhere else because that simply isn't the Toronto climate.

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I feel like this winter has been very "normal" with oscillations between deep freeze and above normal which I quite like given last winter was unbearably restless in the consistent cold department.

We already had a big dump of snow and have had numerous dustings since the start of November. November was quite cold and December was relatively warm. January has been pretty frigid.

Considering I moved to Toronto in April 2011 from Seattle of all places, this has been a good winter I'd say. My first winter here (2011-2012) was a non winter and 2012-2013 was awful until mid January and went on too long, so I'd say this winter already trumps my first two nov/dec/Jan periods.

It's as if folks around here think weekly footer snowstorms are to be expected otherwise they call futility. As far as I'm concerned, if that's the case, move somewhere else because that simply isn't the Toronto climate.

This.

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Shades of last winter with the sunday-monday fgen threat. Never doubt the last minute NW trend, especially with meso's leaning in that direction.

Yeah as it stands right now we could be looking at another 2-5cm unless it tracks further NW.

Any potential for LES? I haven't analyzed any perimeters yet.

I just seen your blog and your writeups are amazing. Are you pursing meteorology as a future career?

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Yeah as it stands right now we could be looking at another 2-5cm unless it tracks further NW.

Any potential for LES? I haven't analyzed any perimeters yet.

I just seen your blog and your writeups are amazing. Are you pursing meteorology as a future career?

 

LE potential looks capped as we are in the midst of the Frontogenesis zone/thermal gradient meaning sfc flow is out of the SW. Even if models trends further NW with the gradient, were looking at a S, maybe SE flow for a few hours in the best case scenario which wouldn't favour any significant LE. 1-2" is a nice early call IMO, perhaps more if things line up a little further NW but we can only do so well here in the GTA under a mean SW flow.

 

Thanks for the compliments. I am still in high school and not sure whether I want to head down the meteo route or not. I always felt that pursuing it as a profession would take something away from the enjoyment of the hobby. On the other hand, it would be pretty cool to work at EC or TWN.

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LE potential looks capped as we are in the midst of the Frontogenesis zone/thermal gradient meaning sfc flow is out of the SW. Even if models trends further NW with the gradient, were looking at a S, maybe SE flow for a few hours in the best case scenario which wouldn't favour any significant LE. 1-2" is a nice early call IMO, perhaps more if things line up a little further NW but we can only do so well here in the GTA under a mean SW flow.

 

Thanks for the compliments. I am still in high school and not sure whether I want to head down the meteo route or not. I always felt that pursuing it as a profession would take something away from the enjoyment of the hobby. On the other hand, it would be pretty cool to work at EC or TWN.

 

I agree. i just had a look over the maps and came to the same conclusion as yourself. The GGEM does hint at a brief burst of some heavy +SN in the GTA, likely small enhancement, but it doesn't look to be anything noteworthy. We'll see how this evolves through tonights 0z and tomorrows 12z runs. Right now 2-5cm is looking like a decent call with some heavier accumulations (3-7cm) further south. 

 

Thereafter its another snooze party, lol. Looks like we may see an enhanced polar jet stream developing next week and this may allow more clippers to form and move further south into the region in the medium range. 

 

Thats nice! i'm in my 3rd year at University. Hated high school with a passion, haha. But in all seriousness i think your far to educated in the field of meteorology for it to be just a hobby for you. But then again, I'm similar to you. I'm currently doing my Bachelors of Commerce and for me weather is just a hobby. But hey, whatever you want to do in life, is all up to you. However, make sure you make the right decision. Goodluck man! 

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LE potential looks capped as we are in the midst of the Frontogenesis zone/thermal gradient meaning sfc flow is out of the SW. Even if models trends further NW with the gradient, were looking at a S, maybe SE flow for a few hours in the best case scenario which wouldn't favour any significant LE. 1-2" is a nice early call IMO, perhaps more if things line up a little further NW but we can only do so well here in the GTA under a mean SW flow.

 

Thanks for the compliments. I am still in high school and not sure whether I want to head down the meteo route or not. I always felt that pursuing it as a profession would take something away from the enjoyment of the hobby. On the other hand, it would be pretty cool to work at EC or TWN.

 

Wow, I had no clue. You're very bright and very eloquent. For me, the meteo route was shut down due to poor chemistry marks. Do yourself a favour and leave whatever doors are in front of you open.

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LE potential looks capped as we are in the midst of the Frontogenesis zone/thermal gradient meaning sfc flow is out of the SW. Even if models trends further NW with the gradient, were looking at a S, maybe SE flow for a few hours in the best case scenario which wouldn't favour any significant LE. 1-2" is a nice early call IMO, perhaps more if things line up a little further NW but we can only do so well here in the GTA under a mean SW flow.

 

Thanks for the compliments. I am still in high school and not sure whether I want to head down the meteo route or not. I always felt that pursuing it as a profession would take something away from the enjoyment of the hobby. On the other hand, it would be pretty cool to work at EC or TWN.

I just want to add in my two cents and compliment you on your knowledge. You are a valuable member of the southern Ontario crew both on here as well as on the accuweather forums. I check your twitter feed every day to read your latest thoughts.

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Thanks Mike! Really appreciate the kind words/advise. 

 

TWN, and especially EC, needs more talent and you've got the chops. Plus from what I've heard there's a bit more of a market for mets in the private sector (the so called "energy mets"). Also you could work for conservation authorities, academia, or as a consultant. I would love to go to work each morning and be in love with the job I do.  

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TWN, and especially EC, needs more talent and you've got the chops. Plus from what I've heard there's a bit more of a market for mets in the private sector (the so called "energy mets"). Also you could work for conservation authorities, academia, or as a consultant. I would love to go to work each morning and be in love with the job I do.  

 

What did you end up doing in a post-secondary institution? 

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