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Southern Ontario Winter '14-'15 Discussion


harrisale

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Looks like a good 1-2" with this.

 

The clipper could pick up some moisture off the lakes and this could strengthen the precip shield a bit as it moves through the region.

 

Snow ratios will be amazing. With the cold temperatures in place, ratios should be around 15:1. If it holds true, we could get 2-3" by Friday. The Euro showed ~0.20 qpf for YYZ. 

 

Lets see! 

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The clipper could pick up some moisture off the lakes and this could strengthen the precip shield a bit as it moves through the region.

 

Snow ratios will be amazing. With the cold temperatures in place, ratios should be around 15:1. If it holds true, we could get 2-3" by Friday. The Euro showed ~0.20 qpf for YYZ. 

 

Lets see! 

 

Models have been consistent on ~0.15-0.2" of QPF friday. The less winds veer to a SW direction, the more downsloping will be reduced and the more snow we will see in the GTA. Overall, ratios will probably be between 10:1-15:1. Since I don't have BUFKIT available, its hard to tell where the best Omega is in the sounding so its tougher to calc ratios. Cobb has been in the 12-14:1 range.

 

Look like a tailor made 1-2" event... maybe up to 2.5" if everything goes right.

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Early morning rippage in and around YXU per the HRRR. Delta-T's near 30c, LICAPE above 1000j/kg, little to no wind shear, nice saturation and a weak inversion above ~800mb. Someone is going to get a foot, even if there is some movement of the band IMO. Where exactly it settles is still up for debate-- the latest NAM/RGEM are right into London while the HRRR/WRF are a little west of the city.

 

post-7879-0-90550100-1420596431_thumb.pn

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LES vigorously ramping up again with a powerful band moving down from Manitoulin Island and the old band that was hanging around NW Bruce county is strengthening and moving south towards me :) . I got on and off snow this afternoon but just in the last hour its starting to look like a winter storm again:

30wqpf6.png
sc5etl.png

 

Most dense I've seen this winter right now and flake size is improving.

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The moon is out currently here, but that should change within the hour as the main band is dropping south into the city. Only picked up an inch or two overnight. EC says the main band should lock in towards Strathroy which would spare the city the worst of it, but SSC and I may get fringed because we both live in the west end of London. Should be fun for a while as the band rolls through. SSC you awake??

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The moon is out currently here, but that should change within the hour as the main band is dropping south into the city. Only picked up an inch or two overnight. EC says the main band should lock in towards Strathroy which would spare the city the worst of it, but SSC and I may get fringed because we both live in the west end of London. Should be fun for a while as the band rolls through. SSC you awake??

 

Am now. Pouring snow as I look out my window. We're definitely in the best position here on the west side to fluke out some bigger snow, although I agree with EC that the BEST chance may be just to our west.

 

Edit: I was expecting bigger flake size to be honest.

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Looks like a nice 5-8cm is in store for the GTA tomorrow night. Ratios will be around 12:1 to 15:1. Other than that, its brutally cold today. Bundle up guys.

Hows the LES SSC?

Looking forward to that snow. Very cold today. Local pond is frozen rock solid though, so I'm happy. The Vodka cold is doing its job!

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Am now. Pouring snow as I look out my window. We're definitely in the best position here on the west side to fluke out some bigger snow, although I agree with EC that the BEST chance may be just to our west.

 

Edit: I was expecting bigger flake size to be honest.

 

Was all pixie dust out this way. Haven't seen that too often with LES

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Have about 6" down with +SN. Heavy snow and blowing snow but nothing I haven't seen before. Generally 1-1.5"/hr rates. Pics to follow.

 

Sorry SSC.  Flake size isn't adequate to really get the job done, but that was pretty well advertised.   Still a pretty good event for this year, considering the crap we've had so far.   Hopefully the band can stay in the London vicinity.   On the plus side,  this should be enough to set the ski trails.   Enjoy.........

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Sorry SSC.  Flake size isn't adequate to really get the job done, but that was pretty well advertised.   Still a pretty good event for this year, considering the crap we've had so far.   Hopefully the band can stay in the London vicinity.   On the plus side,  this should be enough to set the ski trails.   Enjoy.........

 

haha, no prob Alan. The winter's still young and I've got at least next year in London as well so I may still get my snowmaggedon. Was beautiful out there this morning.

 

Looks like the band has set up shop over London proper so whatever it's going to dump it's going to dump it on us.

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haha, no prob Alan. The winter's still young and I've got at least next year in London as well so I may still get my snowmaggedon. Was beautiful out there this morning.

 

Looks like the band has set up shop over London proper so whatever it's going to dump it's going to dump it on us.

 

I'm curious Mike.   What sort of LES event would you classify as satisfactory?   Personally,  anything less than a foot really doesn't count as a good event in my books, or at least crazy rates where visibility is basically nil.   We'll see about this one and where things end up,  but considering this  winter, it's as good as we've seen so far.  

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I'm curious Mike.   What sort of LES event would you classify as satisfactory?   Personally,  anything less than a foot really doesn't count as a good event in my books, or at least crazy rates where visibility is basically nil.   We'll see about this one and where things end up,  but considering this  winter, it's as good as we've seen so far.  

 

Well, I have high expectations because I've seen from afar how prodigious London LES events can be. I mean a 1 metre event would be insane, but if before I leave the Forest City for good (assuming I do) I'd love to see something in the 18"+ range. Because I've never witnessed such an event and it would be nice to put under the belt. Lord knows I won't see anything like that if I end up living in Toronto the rest of my life.

 

Definitely agree that this is the best we've got so far. Still another month 'n change to go so hopefully ma nature comes through.

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The flake size has been a problem with this LES event, I'm not impressed overall because of it. When the monster band dipped all the way to London overnight I was in it for a while and it was the same small flakes as all the others, still enough to accumulate alright but not to my standards.

 

Also these streamers have been hose like during the past 4 days and that is the case with the London one currently too. Its going to be a 402 special, wonder if it remains what's going to happen on that highway that I'm familiar with...hopefully those thinking of traveling on it remember Dec.5 2010.

 

Currently -19ºC with a wind chill of -29...the coldest temperature so far this winter which coincidentally is the exact same date last winter had its coldest temperature or wind chill.

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All overnight and into the day I've been receiving light snow that is very fine but dense overall...with no returns showing up on radar. At times its moderate snow. I have a solid 35-45 cm on the ground at this point.

 

EC's snow squall warnings and watches early yesterday mentioned that the squalls would end for areas east of Georgian Bay (quote - "This is ending the threat of snow squalls for areas to the east of Georgian Bay and will shift the threat to areas to the southeast of the bay.") but looking at radar they had full-on crush overnight with a strong band hitting one location and surrounding moderate to heavy at times. This event is lasting longer than I first thought, winds are going to pick up again soon. Cool configuration of warnings/watches for southern Ontario:

 

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2ahzt5.png

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