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Southern Ontario Winter '14-'15 Discussion


harrisale

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Maybe we can pick up some les over the next few days.   It's been a lean time around here for LES since Nov. 2013.   Maybe some tonight and maybe more Tues night and Wed.   Just need the winds to stay more NW instead of directly west or the dreaded SW.

 

Our best shot is post-clipper when the flow turns 310-320. Won't be a multi-day event as the next clipper will disrupt the flow but could be a fun 12-18 hours.

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How much accumulation are the snow belts looking at? EC only saying long lived snow squalls with 15cm per 12 hours for several days in the warnings.

Also they sprung it up only 12 hours in advance like TWN forecast. I was thinking wouldn't the belts get LES after the front comes in and all that was forecast was some snow flurries (1-3 cm). This morning it was changed to full-blown snow squalls. Why does this happen every time? My long range forecast doesn't even elude to multi-day LES and yet here EC is saying expect awesome times ahead...

 

The wall of snow that came in at 5:00 pm brought pixie dust (dense) for a while then got whipped up by 6:30 pm. That failed to deliver big snows and then on radar the LES bands are on Goderich, Wingham, and Stratford areas...they were in a watch only all day long (still are as of 10:30 pm EDT, lol) while the places north getting squat were under a warning since the middle of the night. TWN's snowfall amount map shows near Owen Sound and the south peninsula the highest amounts of snow around 6:00 pm (20 cm+) but there has been nothing in those regions until the last 40 minutes. Since that map they scrambled and updated it to show less but still the highest tallies...the place getting the most currently is still in a low amount shade (5 cm). If these bands don't move or form to the mentioned region then TWN will share some of the embarrassment this time.

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Here we go, SSC!

 

SNOW SQUALL WARNING
FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO
UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 11:48 P.M. EST SUNDAY 4 JANUARY 2015.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SNOW SQUALL WARNING FOR:

=NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX
=NEW= KITCHENER - CAMBRIDGE - REGION OF WATERLOO
      GODERICH - BLUEWATER - SOUTHERN HURON COUNTY
      WINGHAM - BLYTH - NORTHERN HURON COUNTY
      GREY - BRUCE
      BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND.

SNOW SQUALL WARNING - REPLACES SNOW SQUALL WATCH FOR:

      STRATFORD - MITCHELL - SOUTHERN PERTH COUNTY
      LISTOWEL - MILVERTON - NORTHERN PERTH COUNTY

      SHELBURNE - MANSFIELD - NORTHERN DUFFERIN COUNTY
      INNISFIL - NEW TECUMSETH - ANGUS.

 

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Here we go, SSC!

Only many hours late after radar showed those areas getting nice bands and chunks.

 

Finally got a nice burst of snow at 1:00 am but its moderated to 1" per hour. Nothing really showing up on radar for it though. This LES setup is less common where there are needle bands reaching very far inland with heavy snow in an even more localized area than typical streamers. These needle LES bands are doing Newmarket and Oakville a great service. I wonder what is happening just south of Newmarket, looks like +SN bigtime. Goes all the way to Oshawa. Barrie now in it. Everywhere else seems to have chunks of it currently:

 

abmr6f.png

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I'm guessing the snowsquall watch for the southern GTA (exclusive of Toronto) was issued and is being maintained in error. The text forecast for Mississauga-Brampton doesn't mention the risk of squalls or even any accumulation.

 

The GTA should escape the threat of any LES this week. Flurries is possible, but any accumulations will be less than 2cm. 

 

Our best chance for maybe 2 or 3cm looks to be Thursday-Friday. Other than that, its a dry cold week. What a waste. 

 

Any LES in London? 

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I'm guessing the snowsquall watch for the southern GTA (exclusive of Toronto) was issued and is being maintained in error. The text forecast for Mississauga-Brampton doesn't mention the risk of squalls or even any accumulation.

 

EC has removed the snow squall warning criteria index off their website, but IIRC lake effect is 15cm in 12 hr. Rarely ever happens in KW, Woodstock, Brantford, Guelph, etc but we're continuously placed under these last minute warnings that don't match forecasts and are canceled within a couple hours. They need to develop a snow squall advisory for consistency IMO. As for the lake ontario shoreline area, who knows. They've really gotten away from explaining conditions or likely scenarios in almost all their alerts and have resorted to using standardized plain language templates.

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So southern Peel and York are under snowsquall watches (unnecessary btw) but Toronto's not.

If Oakville is considered to be in Peel, than it was because LES was bombarding them overnight. Peel was under a watch when they were getting constant returns on radar for snow...another aspect I didn't get. Why they are still under a watch is a mystery. Even the formatting of the text was screwed up. Here is the warning from overnight in York and Durham region aside:

 

2:35 AM EST Monday 05 January 2015

Snow squall warning in effect for:

  • Newmarket - Georgina - Northern York Region
  • Pickering - Oshawa - Southern Durham Region
  • Uxbridge - Beaverton - Northern Durham Region
  • Vaughan - Richmond Hill - Markham

What a waste. 

 

Any LES in London? 

That's how I feel about this whole winter season  :unsure: . Maybe you could visit Newmarket or Oshawa to see what hit 'em last night.

 

EC has removed the snow squall warning criteria index off their website, but IIRC lake effect is 15cm in 12 hr. Rarely ever happens in KW, Woodstock, Brantford, Guelph, etc but we're continuously placed under these last minute warnings that don't match forecasts and are canceled within a couple hours. They need to develop a snow squall advisory for consistency IMO. As for the lake ontario shoreline area, who knows. They've really gotten away from explaining conditions or likely scenarios in almost all their alerts and have resorted to using standardized plain language templates.

Agreed. I wonder how many people actually know what a snow squall means, I bet there are some that think its just plain snow from a low as usual but called that if there is some other condition attached. The last part just gets me, how hard is it to spice these things up anyways? I use to see some details at times but not recently.

 

I'm getting rapid on and off LES. This go-around its extremely rapid changing rates where instead of minutes its seconds. It can go from nothing at all to light-moderate snow in 10 seconds. Nothing I haven't seen before but people are noticing it this time. Can't tell how much I got so far because of drifting everywhere.

 

2nvzcqw.png

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As it stands now, we're above average snowfall and below average temperatures, I believe.

 

December was about 2.5 degrees above normal. Snowfall wise, were running at normal right now. 40.1cm at YYZ so far.  Unless we get some snow this week, we'll be slightly below normal. 

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Thank god for the Dec. 11th storm or we'd be staring down the barrel of another possible futility winter.

YYZers should consider themselves lucky. Less than 20cm on the season out this way.

Not ready to call for futility yet but the next few weeks of January aren't looking great.

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December was about 2.5 degrees above normal. Snowfall wise, were running at normal right now. 40.1cm at YYZ so far.  Unless we get some snow this week, we'll be slightly below normal. 

 

 

YYZers should consider themselves lucky. Less than 20cm on the season out this way.

Not ready to call for futility yet but the next few weeks of January aren't looking great.

Often when January is dry February ends up snowy, I've found. In January 2000, for example, it turned really cold from mid month on, but there was very little snow. The first three weeks of February 2000 saw a reasonable amount of snow.

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