on_wx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Rob Kuhn expecting only a CAB in KW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 If the euro is correct, we smash the coldest temperature recorded last year by a wide margin(-28c wed night would surpass the -24c night time low from last Jan). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 If the euro is correct, we smash the coldest temperature recorded last year by a wide margin(-28c wed night would surpass the -24c night time low from last Jan).If that clipper plays out as modeled early next week then its possible. Without any sufficient snowcover it won't be possible. Either way, we could see our first -20C low temperature of the season. YYZ has only recorded one double digit low temperature and that was way back in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 If that clipper plays out as modeled early next week then its possible. Without any sufficient snowcover it won't be possible. Either way, we could see our first -20C low temperature of the season. YYZ has only recorded one double digit low temperature and that was way back in November. Agree. As of now, I'm liking the clipper potential. The 12z EC had ~0.2" of QPF over the GTA. That's a solid 3-4" given the temps at play and meso banding is probably underdone on the euro given the setup(moist flow off the lake). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Agree. As of now, I'm liking the clipper potential. The 12z EC had ~0.2" of QPF over the GTA. That's a solid 3-4" given the temps at play and meso banding is probably underdone on the euro given the setup(moist flow off the lake). Agree completely. The latest GFS/EURO all show around 3" for the GTA given the high ratios. If we can get the right set-up off Lake Ontario we could be looking at 5"in the GTA. However, I'd rather wait till Sunday-Monday to see if that LES potential holds true. The GFS shows another potential storm next weekend. Still a week out, but any initial thoughts? Active Pacific jet looks to setup next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The latest Euro also seemed to show 2-3" of front end snow for us tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 FREEZING RAIN WARNINGFOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:21 P.M. EST FRIDAY 2 JANUARY 2015. --------------------------------------------------------------------- FREEZING RAIN WARNING FOR: =NEW= CALEDON =NEW= STRATFORD - MITCHELL - SOUTHERN PERTH COUNTY =NEW= LISTOWEL - MILVERTON - NORTHERN PERTH COUNTY =NEW= WATERLOO - WELLINGTON =NEW= DUFFERIN - INNISFIL =NEW= HANOVER - DUNDALK - SOUTHERN GREY COUNTY =NEW= OWEN SOUND - BLUE MOUNTAINS - NORTHERN GREY COUNTY =NEW= BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGIONS ON SATURDAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN. SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED BEFORE IT CHANGES TO RAIN LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 0Z GFS tracks the clipper south of the region and the GTA sees maybe 1-2" at the max, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Looking forward to the 1-4pm thump. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Looking forward to the 1-4pm thump. Bring it. hrrr_ref_toronto_9.png Temperature seems to be rising quite quickly. I'm already up to -1.3c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Temperature seems to be rising quite quickly. I'm already up to -1.3c. Noticed that too. But I've also noticed they've trended quicker in bringer the QPF slug into our area. I'm guessing precip starts up probably by early afternoon. YXU already reporting -SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Not the ideal setup, but front-end thumps usually are pretty kind to us. I think of big surprise ones like March 1, 2007 or February 8, 2001. There are others that elude my memory attm. For a winter wx lover, a great chance to exercise your nowcasting muscles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Noticed that too. But I've also noticed they've trended quicker in bringer the QPF slug into our area. I'm guessing precip starts up probably by early afternoon. YXU already reporting -SN. I'm not too worried about the sfc temps besides slower accums upon onset. RAP soundings favour little in the way of PL/ZR(brief PL upon changeover maybe) as sfc temps are warmest in the column post saturation. Once you get into the BL there is room to wet bulb down quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I'm not too worried about the sfc temps besides slower accums upon onset. RAP soundings favour little in the way of PL/ZR(brief PL upon changeover maybe) as sfc temps are warmest in the column post saturation. Once you get into the BL there is room to wet bulb down quite a bit. Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I'm not too worried about the sfc temps besides slower accums upon onset. RAP soundings favour little in the way of PL/ZR(brief PL upon changeover maybe) as sfc temps are warmest in the column post saturation. Once you get into the BL there is room to wet bulb down quite a bit. Yeah, still maintaining that nice T/Td depression at YYZ despite actual air temps slowly rising. A quick burst of 5cm wouldn't surprise me at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Also important to note the stubbornness of the BL temps so far. Very little meridional movement of the 0c 850mb isotherm. We even cooled off a bit between 13-15z. Similar situation at 925mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Yeah, still maintaining that nice T/Td depression at YYZ despite actual air temps slowly rising. A quick burst of 5cm wouldn't surprise me at all. Agree. There is even more room for dynamic cooling once you get above 900mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Agree. There is even more room for dynamic cooling once you get above 900mb. Screen Shot 2015-01-03 at 10.20.30 AM.png We cooled a bit at 850 at 15z per the SPC mesoanalysis map (-4 to -5c range). Virga is doing its job. What are your thoughts on amounts? Looks like some of the better convective elements that could have really turned this interesting are going to miss us to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Doughnut hole on KC radar continues to fill. We may get going around the noon hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 We cooled a bit at 850 at 15z per the SPC mesoanalysis map (-4 to -5c range). Virga is doing its job. What are your thoughts on amounts? Looks like some of the better convective elements that could have really turned this interesting are going to miss us to the south. I'm liking the over on the 2" mark. Returns on YXU radar look to be moving in a really nice direction right now. Latest run of the HRRR even more bullish on the LL cold air as well. Thinking we can squeeze 3" out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I'm liking the over on the 2" mark. Returns on YXU radar look to be moving in a really nice direction right now. Latest run of the HRRR even more bullish on the LL cold air as well. Thinking we can squeeze 3" out of this. Light snow falling in northeast Toronto. Not sticking yet, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 EC bumped amounts from 2-4cm to 5cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Peak SN rates of 1-2" per hour during the height of the defo band per the 13z RAP. This happens around 3-4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Hamilton -SN/1SM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 -SN/10SM at YYZ valid 11:33. Bands approaching quickly from the west. T/td= 0/-4. Vis should be a lot lower in ~1 hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 -SN/10SM at YYZ valid 11:33. Bands approaching quickly from the west. T/td= 0/-4. Vis should be a lot lower in ~1 hour. Can verify. Flurries have began flying. 30-35 dbz returns s of Kitchener looking mouth watering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Still just flurries at my place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Can verify. Flurries have began flying. 30-35 dbz returns s of Kitchener looking mouth watering. Latest frame even more intense. 35-40dbz returns aimed at parts of the west end. Hearing reports of +SN in K-W area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Latest frame even more intense. 35-40dbz returns aimed at parts of the west end. Estimated time of arrival 1pm would you say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Estimated time of arrival 1pm would you say? Band is starting to move in right now. No guarantee the heavy band to our west stays SE enough to impact toronto proper but I think it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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